A weak mid level short wave trough combined with very hot temperatures to generate scattered thunderstorms late on the afternoon of the 13th. The hot temperatures allowed for a deeply mixed boundary layer giving thunderstorms high cloud bases.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A weak mid level short wave trough combined with very hot temperatures to generate scattered thunderstorms late on the afternoon of the 13th. The hot temperatures allowed for a deeply mixed boundary layer giving thunderstorms high cloud bases. These storms slowly moved to the east through the evening creating scattered severe wind gusts. A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Hackberry (Cottle County) measured a severe wind gust with outflow winds well away from the thunderstorm activity.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 5:14 PM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Currently, we are experiencing temperatures in the upper 90s and southwesterly winds. Cloud cover is expected to increase into the afternoon and evening hours today. Looking at the 850 mb level, temperatures are slightly cooler from yesterdays heat wave by a few degrees. Sadly, it will still be a hot one today, as west-southwest flow around 850 mb allows for warm air advection to be transversed into the region. Therefore, high temperatures are expected to be in the 100s today. Temperatures have prompted a Heat Advisory to be issued from 1 PM until 9 PM CDT today for the southern and central South Plains into the Rolling Plains and far southeastern Texas Panhandle. On the bright side, a weak mid to upper-level shortwave will track across the area fueling the development of thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Mid-level moisture stuck beneath the ridge and mid level PVA will help contribute to todays potential thunderstorm development this afternoon. Moreover, a mixed boundary layer remains, allowing for todays convection to be high based, increasing the potential for damaging winds associated with todays activity. Thunderstorm activity looks to continue through the night as a convective front pushes through, helping with cooling overnight lows into the upper 60s to upper 70s. Looking into Friday, the upper level ridge will position itself over the southwest corner of the US, allowing for the CWA to be centered over relatively northwest flow at 250 mb. This northwest flow aloft will all the potential for a slight temperature decrease tomorrow, with highs expected to be in the upper 90s to low 100s. Weak surface troughing and convective temperatures will allow for another slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm on Friday. The increased potential will shift to the northeast corner of the CWA as an embedded shortwave pushes through transitioning the convective activity to the north. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The overall synoptic pattern indicates an upper level low over central Canada and a building ridge over the Southwestern US. Friday evening will bring a slight chance of thunderstorms primarily over the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern/western portions of the South Plains. Triple-digit temperatures will allow for instability to build throughout the day and although dewpoints will be slightly lower, the PWATs show between 1.25 and 1.5 inches and thus there will be sufficient moisture present to promote at least some development. High-res guidance future reflectivity shows storms developing near the TX/NM border around 6-7pm and slowly tracking eastward before tapering off by late evening. A cold front moving through Saturday will bring additional storm chances in the afternoon and evening. While model timing is still not in complete agreement, the general consensus remains that the highest chances (moreso than Friday) will again be over the northern half of the forecast area. Highs are expected to be "cooler" in the upper 80s to mid 90s. As the aforementioned ridge builds to the east, triple- digit temperatures will return by early next week and conditions look to remain dry. Shortwaves between a broad trough to the north and the ridge may bring some isolated to scattered thunderstorms towards the end of next week, however it remains too early to pinpoint any specific details. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 VFR is expected to prevail at KLBB and KPVW for the TAF period as TSTMs remain north and east of KPVW. A complex of TSTMs to the west of KCDS should affect the terminal after dark/between 03-09Z tonight into early tomorrow morning, with VFR prevailing at KCDS outside of convection. Downbursts winds in excess of 40 kt will be possible in the event TSTMs move INVOF KCDS. Thermal turbulence will continue to affect GA and small aircraft. Check density altitude. Sincavage && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ025-026-031>044. && SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...09
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 802 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 TXZ021>044-150115- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 802 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated to scattered high based thunderstorms will continue to be possible this evening across the South Plains, the extreme southern Texas Panhandle, and portions of the Rolling Plains. Brief downpours and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will accompany the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Greatest chances on Friday will be over the far southern Texas Panhandle and northern/western portions of the South Plains. Saturday's chances will increase and expand southward. A few storms may become severe producing damaging winds. Heavy rain/localized flooding is also possible as storms are expected to move slowly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 16 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:27 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Shallowater measured severe wind gusts from 1929 CST through 1932 CST. A peak wind gust of 64 mph was measured at 1932 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Dimmitt measured severe wind gusts between 2032 CST and 2033 CST. A peak wind gust of 60 mph was measured at 2032 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near South Plains measured severe wind gusts from 2231 CST through 2235 CST. A peak wind gust of 73 mph was measured at 2231 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Estelline measured a wind gust to 59 mph.
A swath of severe wind gusts were measured by the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at Childress Municipal Airport and by the Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Childress from 2329 CST through 2342 CST. A peak wind gust of 66 mph was measured at 2340 CST and 2342 CST by the mesonet and ASOS, respectively.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104690, 1104686, 1104694, 1104698, 1104702, 1104706.