Flash Flood and Damaging Winds in Missouri, July 13 to 14, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Heat Advisory this afternoon for locations
generally along and south of a Columbus, Kansas to Ava, Missouri
line.

2. Potential for additional thunderstorms tonight into Saturday
morning.

3. Warm conditions look to return for the middle of next week.

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Early This Morning:
An MCS continues to push south-southeast through southern Missouri
and southeast Kansas early this morning. A 25-35 kt low- level jet
and weakening low level inhibition has aided in storm organization
across the area. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat.
Storms look to weaken and clear the area by around 8 AM as they
become increasingly outflow dominant.

Heat Today:
With storms and cloud cover clearing out in the morning,
confidence in the temperature forecast has increased, as indicated
by smaller NBM temperature spreads. Even with lowering dew points
slightly, Heat Index values look to top out around 105 degrees for
locations generally along and south of a Columbus, Kansas to Ava,
Missouri line, so have not made any adjustments to the Heat
Advisory from the previous forecast.

Storm Chances This Evening - Tonight:
Subtle shortwave energy moves through the area this evening and
may provide just enough forcing for isolated thunderstorm
development. Good mid-level lapse rates around 8C/km and diurnal
heating will make for a highly unstable atmosphere with MLCAPE
values of 3000-4000 J/kg. For any storms that do form, hail up to
the size of half dollars and wind gusts up to 60 mph would be the
primary hazards. Locations across far southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri would be favored for this activity.

Storm chances look to increase Thursday night into Friday morning
as another MCS tracks through the Plains. There remain fairly
large differences in its tracks among the 00Z HREF members;
however, there is at least a notable increase in storm coverage
overall compared to earlier runs. Have stuck with NBM PoPs for now
given the uncertainty. SPC has highlighted our area in a Marginal
risk for severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and
locally heavy rainfall being the primary hazards.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Another, perhaps more prominent, upper level shortwave and surface
cold front will continue to allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. Strong
low-level lapse rates may allow for a few severe thunderstorms,
with large hail and damaging winds being the hazards. Flash
flooding will also be a concern as PWATs reach 1.75-2.2 inches,
which should allow for efficient rainfall rates. Any areas that
received earlier rainfall may be primed for flash flooding. WPC
has placed nearly the entire area under a Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall.

Much of Saturday and Sunday look to remain dry as the upper level
ridge across the western CONUS becomes more amplified and the
better rain chances push south of our area in the vicinity of the
surface front.

That front looks to lift back north for the beginning of next
week, which will bring the return of warmer temperatures and
potentially excessive heat Tuesday into Wednesday. NBM
deterministic data is closer to the 75th percentile, so will
continue to refine the temperature forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

A few lingering thunderstorms may be possible at the start of the
TAF period, but should quickly move southeast of the sites. Much
of the TAF period will see VFR conditions with only a few high
clouds through the afternoon.

Low chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two this evening around
00Z, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF. Better
chances exists beyond 06Z as another thunderstorm complex moves
through the region. Still some uncertainty with storm track,
however, so only included TSRA in a prob30 group for now.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ088-093>096-101>105.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1021 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141530-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1021 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas this evening into the
overnight hours, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds,
and localized flash flooding.

Hot and humid conditions today will result in Heat Index values
around 105 degrees this afternoon across southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible Friday into
Saturday morning. Localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will be the main risks, but a few strong to severe storms will be
possible at times.

Additional thunderstorms will then be possible by the middle of
next week along with the potential return of excessive heat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later tonight for southwest
Missouri and southeast Kansas.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
530 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

MOZ071-083-131100-
Dent MO-Phelps MO-
530 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Dent
and central Phelps Counties through 600 AM CDT...

At 530 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Newburg, or 10 miles southwest of Rolla, moving
southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla, Salem, Doolittle, Newburg, Edgar Springs, Lenox, Bangert,
Howes, Lecoma, Lake Spring and Anutt.

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 168, and between mile
markers 179 and 183.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 9137 3750 9171 3756 9176 3760 9176
      3760 9180 3786 9203 3797 9185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 311DEG 37KT 3781 9186

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Melto

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
656 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Niangua           37.37N 92.78W
07/13/2023                   Webster            MO   Amateur Radio

            Delayed report. Large tree snapped. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

KP