Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 1, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
140 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday night)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

A trough over the Central Plains extends down into TX and NM while
high pressure remains over the SE and Western States.  This trough
will swing east tonight weakening the ridge over the Gulf states as
the one over CA/NV strengthens.  The western ridge will grow Sunday
reaching from the Pacific into NM as the base of the trough lingers
along the Red River.

Had a weak front move into the area this morning and make it down to
MAF before stalling out then being pushed northward by the southerly
flow.  Lows expected to drop into the 60s tonight except for 70s
along the Pecos and Rio Grande.  Highs Sunday warm into the low to
mid 90s across most of the region.

The frontal boundary will be an excellent focus for thunderstorm
development. As of 18z have no storms along the boundary within the
CWA with one storm over the Davis Mountains another north of Van
Horn. Models blow up storms late afternoon/early evening across Lea
County into the Western Permian Basin. This complex of storms moves
south through Central Permian Basin during the evening then into
Crockett and Val Verde overnight. The SWODY1 has a small slight risk
right over the Permian Basin so could see some of these storms
become severe. Damaging wind will be the main concern along with
isolated large hail possible.  Best chance Sunday will be over the
Davis Mountains southward across the Marfa Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

The pattern slowly shifts to warmer and drier after this weekend. An
upper level ridge takes hold over the Desert Southwest and broadens
itself to just cover portions of the forecast area. Highs gradually
go from near normal in the mid 90s to the upper 90s and low 100s
towards the middle and end of this coming week. Now it will not be
the late June heat we recently saw, but temperatures will be a few
degrees above normal. Morning lows stay near normal in the upper 60s
to low 70s. The normal high terrain cool spots getting into the
upper 50s to low 60s. With high pressure building back in during the
week, rain chances will decrease with the Davis Mountains and
Presidio Valley seeing the best chances for isolated to scattered
shower activity during most afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

A weak front was pushed into the area by outflows and made it
right to MAF around noon before stalling out and is now lifting
northward. Potential for thunderstorm development along this
boundary is high and have included mention of storms at MAF and
HOB. Severe storms possible. Models develop a complex of storms
that push through MAF from the north with at least the outflow
making it to FST this evening. Kept all TAFS VFR... will start out
with a S/SE wind but shift to the N after outflow blows through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  70  95 /  50  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 68  97  68  97 /  20  30  20  10
Dryden                   72  90  72  94 /  30  40  10  10
Fort Stockton            69  93  71  96 /  30  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           67  91  68  92 /  20  40  20  20
Hobbs                    65  94  66  95 /  20  20  20  10
Marfa                    59  89  59  89 /  40  60  20  40
Midland Intl Airport     69  94  70  96 /  70  20  10   0
Odessa                   69  94  70  96 /  60  20  10   0
Wink                     69  96  71  99 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...72
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
139 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-021845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
139 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023 /1239 PM MDT Sat Jul 1 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal to slight risk for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, some may be severe, with lightning, gusty strong
winds,and large hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland