A high rip current risk was in effect for local beaches given onshore flow, elevated swell periods and surf in the 2-3 ft range.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A high rip current risk was in effect for local beaches given onshore flow, elevated swell periods and surf in the 2-3 ft range.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 2:43 PM EST, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
343 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY FOR NE FL BEACHES...
...DANGEROUSLY HOT HEAT INDEX 100-110 DEG THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
.NEAR TERM...
through Tonight...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
A few showers were starting to pop along the convergence of the
east coast sea breeze and St. Johns River breeze in Clay county
and extended southward toward Lake George. Satellite imagery also
showed the west coast sea breeze pinned near the Gulf Coast and a
convergent zone across south GA edging southward. Mesoscale
boundaries will focus across the Suwanee River Valley through the
early evening where a few isolated t'storms will be possible. Dry
mid/upper level air, weak mid level lapse rates and warm temps
aloft will limit deep convective coverage, but an isolated storm
could produce gusty wet downburst winds near 40 mph given dry air
entrainment and high downdraft CAPEs. Tonight, diurnally enhanced
inland convection will fade through the evening with mostly dry
conditions by midnight. Mild and muggy overnight lows will range
in the low/mid 70s inland to mid/upper 70s coast and the St. Johns
River front.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
Sun & Mon...Rain chances nudge upward a bit each day as the
persistent upper ridge across the Gulf Coast states breaks down
and shifts across the FL peninsula as the low level ridge axis
settles farther south across the FL peninsula. Weak steering flow
will enable both west and east coast sea breezes to progress
inland each afternoon with a merger across the interior of the
forecast area during the afternoon and early evening triggering
scattered showers/storms. Weak steering flow and warm temps aloft
could bring locally heavy rainfall and wet downburst potential in
deeper cells, but given weak upper level forcing and above normal
temps aloft, strong to severe storm potential is low.
Temperatures...Above normal high will continue from the mid/upper
90s inland to low/mid 90s at the coast with muggy overnight lows
in the upper 60s inland to mid 70s coast. The peak of the heat is
expected Sunday and Monday when near record highs will be possible
as highs near the triple digits. Dangerous heat index values will
range between 105-110 deg F each day, and Heat Advisories are
expected.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
Synopsis...Continued hot and humid with increasing rain chances
as WSW steering flow increases between high pressure across the FL
peninsula and gradually deepening troughs across the eastern
CONUS. Daily heat advisories will likely be needed for at least
portions of the forecast area through late week until increased
storminess/cloud cover reduces daytime heating.
Tue/Wed...Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers
and storms are expected each day with a light SW steering flow in
the 1000-700 mb layer (~ 5 kts) enabling the sea breezes to press
inland each afternoon with a merger of boundaries across the
interior, then deeper convection drifting slower back toward the
Atlantic coast into the early evening under the light WSW steering
flow. Precipitable water will rise back above climo values in the
1.8-2 inch range this period. Slow storm motion will create
locally heavy rainfall especially near boundary/cell mergers with
a few strong storms capable of wet downbursts.
Thu-Sat...High moisture content continues across the area as SW
steering flow strengthens as the eastern CONUS upper trough
deepens southward. At the surface, a trough axis nudges southward
across GA. The increase in upper forcing, continued high moisture
and the approach of the surface front will bring more numerous to
widespread showers and storms for the latter half of the week as
high temps begin to trend downward due to increased storminess.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
VFR conditions throughout the current TAF period, with a brief
period of MVFR for VQQ during the early hours of Saturday. Some
showers possible near SSI in the next few hours. Showers possible
near GNV, VCSH for now at 21Z, as storms may develop Saturday
late afternoon into early evening over inland locations for NE FL
and SE GA.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
High pressure across north Florida will shift farther south
Sunday. A front will linger across Georgia Monday and begin to
edge farther south through Wednesday. As the front approaches, a
stormier weather pattern is expected across the local waters
through the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Recent lifeguard reports of rip current rescues prompted
an afternoon upgraded to High Rip Current Risk for NE FL beaches
through tonight. A moderate rip current risk is advertised for SE
GA beaches and all beaches through July 4th.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
Daily record high temperatures and occurrence year for official climates:
DATE SAT 7/01 SUN 7/02 MON 7/3 TUE 7/4
----------------------------------------------------
JAX 100 100 99 99
(1990) (1902) (2019) (1970)
CRG 102 100 98 98
(1998) (1998) (1998) (1979)
GNV 99 99 101 99
(1902) (1902) (1902) (1997)
SSI 101 97 97 99
(1998) (2019) (2014) (1979)
AMG 100 99 101 99
(1990) (2019) (2019) (1997)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 75 97 76 97 / 20 30 20 40
SSI 78 93 79 96 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 74 97 75 98 / 10 20 10 40
SGJ 74 92 75 95 / 10 10 10 30
GNV 72 97 74 97 / 10 30 20 40
OCF 72 97 74 97 / 10 20 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.
AM...None.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
The Fernandina Beach lifeguards reported 6 rip current rescues. Surf was 2-3 feet.
St. Johns County Ocean Rescue received a call at 7 pm (guards are off duty at 6 pm) of two people drowning just north of Mickler's Landing in St. Johns County. One was a 42-year-old male and the other a juvenile. The adult was a fatality. The child was believed to be taken to the hospital. Responders reported rip currents and surf heights of around 2 feet. According to the bystanders, the child went into distress first and then the adult attempted to assist.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Coastal St. Johns | 2023-07-01 | 42 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106244, 1106242.