Drought in Texas, January 1 to 24, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1033 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

The rest of the weekend will be relatively quiet across the area. A
cool/cold New Year's night in store across the area for tonight.
Winds are expected to be relatively light with temperatures dropping
into the mid 30s to upper 40s N to S across the fa. Some models show
a weak pseudo warm front could develop across northern/central
portions of fa tonight into tomorrow. Some weak moisture advection
may develop near this boundary which may lead to some patchy fog
developing, mainly in north central OK, but this potential currently
seems fairly low so have left a mention out of the forecast for now
but something for later shifts to keep an eye on. Otherwise, a
mild/warm day is expected for New Year's Day with highs climbing
into the upper 50s to low 70s (N to S).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

Main Concern: Showers/Storms and Potential Severe Weather Monday

A more active day is expected Monday with an upper trough affecting
the region. Models show the upper trough moving over Sierra
Nevada area tonight and continuing to move east across the
western U.S. Models show this system centered over the Four
Corners region early Monday with closed low lifting NE into the
central U.S. Monday/Monday night. Meanwhile, at the sfc, moisture
will advect northward Sunday into Monday with 50s/60s dewpoints
possible in parts of the fa. Models then show a dryline/Pacific
cold front moving across the region Monday as the upper low begins
to move into the central U.S. and the sfc low moves across KS.
Moisture/warm air advection is expected to develop ahead of the
main upper system which will bring a chance for showers/storms to
parts of the fa early Monday. Showers/storms will then remain
possible across portions of the fa throughout the day Monday until
the dryline/Pacific cold front moves across the region. Strong to
severe storms will be possible Monday, mainly along and east of
I-35 and S of I-44 where the better moisture is expected to be in
place. The strong to severe potential could begin Monday morning
with a few elevated storms but much of the severe potential is
currently expected Monday afternoon/evening. The area could still
shift a bit depending on the timing of the upper low/trough,
dryline/Pacific front, and area of better moisture return so there
are still some uncertainties but strong/severe storms seem
possible for at least SE parts of the area Monday.

Models show another upper trough moving across the central U.S.
Friday/Saturday. A lee trough will begin to develop Friday as this
system approaches increasing the pressure gradient across the region
causing breezy southerly winds. Some moisture will also begin to
spread back northward although currently don't expect enough for a
chance of precipitation. A weak front is expected to move into parts
of the fa as the upper trough moves into the Plains but the boundary
is expected to stall over the area. This will keep what moisture
return has been ongoing across portions of the region from moving
too far from the area and return across the fa Sunday when southerly
winds return. Models show another upper trough then potentially
affecting the region Sunday/Monday which might bring another chance
for rain but that is day 8-9 so will have to see if models continue
with that scenario over the coming days.

As for temperatures this coming week, above average temperatures are
expected to continue Sunday night into Monday before a cold front
Monday night/Tuesday cools temperatures back down closer to around
normal for much of the rest of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

Will keep mention of MVFR visibility restrictions north of
developing warm front post 12Z across KPNC and KSWO terminals.
Lower restrictions appear possible farther north and east, but
amendments may be needed later tonight if fog development is more
widespread and/or dense than currently expected. Winds will stay
light through the period. Deteriorating conditions expected just
after this valid period with stratus and rain development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  65  52  65 /   0   0   0  50
Hobart OK         40  68  49  65 /   0   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  48  72  55  69 /   0   0   0  30
Gage OK           36  62  42  62 /   0   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     39  60  47  65 /   0   0   0  50
Durant OK         48  73  58  70 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
213 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-012015-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
213 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening, mainly across parts of southern and eastern Oklahoma.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats.

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