A mesoscale convective system brings scattered damaging winds to the southern Tennessee Valley in East Tennessee.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A mesoscale convective system brings scattered damaging winds to the southern Tennessee Valley in East Tennessee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 1:37 PM CST, 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 337 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Key Messages: 1. Isolated damaging winds and marginal hail potential across the Plateau and southern half of the Tennessee valley through early this evening. 2. More widespread severe storms with damaging winds and hail possible for late Sunday and evening. Discussion: Through this Evening, a thunderstorm complex associated with a weak short-wave riding on top of the upper ridge. MLCAPES are between 2000-2500 over much of the current severe thunderstorm watch. Main concern is damaging winds as DCAPES are between 1200-1300. Hail CAPES are 600-700 but high freezing levels will limit hail production but will help with potential of strong downbursts winds. Isolated damaging winds and marginal hail possible across the Plateau, southern half of the Tennessee valley, and Cherokee and Clay counties through early evening. For tonight, latest HREF and HRRR suggests a break in the convection. Where rain occurs, patchy fog is possible overnight. For Sunday, an upper trough moves across the mid-west into the Ohio valley. A 60-70kts upper jet core will move across the Ohio valley placing the lower Ohio valley and upper Tennessee valley under the favored right entrance region of the jet. The upper jet also strengthens the 850mb jet to 25-30kts by late in the day. The jet dynamics will increase the forcing along a surface trough across Kentucky into middle Tennessee in the late afternoon. Models show a fairly unstable environment along and ahead of this boundary with MLCAPES of 2500-3000. HREF shows mean CAPES of 2500 as well. The wind field will also provide some organization to the convection with effective shear up to 25-30kts. DCAPES are once again quite high with values of 1200+ due to mid-level dry air. Model soundings also show mid- level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 degrees. Decent mid- level lapse rates and effective shear will help support better hail residence time and hail growth. Greater coverage and intensity of severe storms are expected late in the day Sunday. SPC currently has the entire area under a slight risk. HREF shows PWs of 1.4 inches. Flash flood potential is marginal but will need to watch for any training of cells. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 Key Messages: 1. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous Sunday night into Monday with a weak cold front moving through. Then more scattered convective activity for a few days before another weak front approaches Friday. Strong storms possible Monday in southern parts of the area. Daytime heating each day may produce isolated strong storms through Thursday. 2. Temperatures close to seasonal normals expected Monday through Thursday, then slightly cooler Friday and Saturday with more cloud cover, more precipitation and weak front. 3. An upper trough moving into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday will bring a front into the eastern Tennessee Valley mainly Friday and Friday night. There will be an increased chance of thunderstorms and these may become strong to possibly severe. Discussion: Upper trough moving into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will move a weak cold front this way Sunday night and Monday. The front stalls or gets hung up over southern Tennessee Monday night into Tuesday and then gradually dissipates Tuesday and Tuesday night. As the first front weakens Tuesday night, weak high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft by mid week and convection becomes more diurnal. Thursday a new front approaches the Ohio Valley and this front, ahead of another trough moves into the eastern Tennessee Valley region Friday. Rain chances become likely with showers and thunderstorms Thursday night or early Friday. Friday night and early Saturday the front will move slowly through and should be in North Carolina by later in the day Saturday. The GFS is faster with the front and deeper with the trough so Saturday may be dry if this model is more correct. Rainfall amounts each day will vary widely depending on where storms develop but will average around 0.25 to 0.50 inch Sunday evening to monday evening with localized higher amounts that may produce localized flooding. For Monday evening the to Tuesday evening the rainfall amounts should be lower. Amounts for the 5 day period ending Thursday at 12Z are forecast to be 1 to 2 inches but much of that should come in the first 2 days ending Monday evening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 SPC just issued a severe thunderstorm watch for the southern Plateau, southeast Tennessee, and Cherokee and Clay counties of North Carolina. A short-wave riding on top of the upper level ridge along with plenty of instability across western/middle Tennessee has produced a thunderstorm complex there. Latest radar shows this area of storms racing east and will move into the CHA area around 21-22Z and possibly TYS 22-23Z. The main question is coverage and intensity of the storms. A minimum surface theta-e/instability lies across the Plateau counties. How much of this airmass will moisten/destabilze ahead of this complex. Besides the storms, MVFR conditions due to fog/low-clouds are possible at all TAF sites due to recent rains but confidence is too low to include at this time. Confidence is also low on timing of next wave of storms for Sunday. These small scale short-waves are not being handled well by the models. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 95 72 90 / 30 50 50 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 92 71 87 / 40 50 60 40 Oak Ridge, TN 71 91 70 87 / 40 60 70 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 89 68 85 / 30 50 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DH LONG TERM....TD AVIATION...DH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Morristown TN 239 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-021900- Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins- Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen- Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene- Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter- Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-Northwest Blount- Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe- Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee- Wise-Scott VA-Russell-Washington VA- 239 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023 /139 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest North Carolina...east Tennessee and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening may be strong to severe. Damaging winds and hail will the main threats with any storms that develop. Heat indices in the southern Plateau, central valley and southern valley could exceed 100 this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Showers and storms are expected again late Sunday. Some storms could become strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail being the main threats. It will continue to be hot Sunday with afternoon heat indices reaching or exceeding 100 primarily across portions of the southern and central Tennessee Valley Sunday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening and again Sunday. TD/DH
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1058 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0610 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 W Coeburn 36.94N 82.52W
07/01/2023 Wise VA Public
A few trees down.
&&
DHPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Morristown TN
111 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 AM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 NNE Bristol Va 36.64N 82.16W
07/01/2023 Washington VA Law Enforcement
Trees down at the intersection of Oak Grove
Road, and Superior lane. One tree blocking
the roadway.
&&Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
240 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023
TNZ098-012030-
Marion TN-
240 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Marion County
through 330 PM CDT...
At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 9
miles south of Sewanee, or 12 miles northwest of Bridgeport, moving
east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Jasper, South Pittsburg, Whitwell, Kimball, Powells Crossroads, Orme,
Martin Springs, Haletown (guild), Hicks Gap State Park and Sequatchie
Cave.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3516 8586 3522 8540 3504 8541 3500 8543
3498 8548 3499 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 271DEG 29KT 3507 8589
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DieganSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
VAZ001-002-005-012030-
Scott VA-Wise VA-Lee VA-
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Lee,
Scott and southwestern Wise Counties through 430 PM EDT...
At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Big Stone Gap, or 15 miles southwest of Norton, moving east at 35
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Gate City, Big Stone Gap, Weber City, Mount Carmel, Appalachia,
Nickelsville, Dungannon, Duffield, Clinchport and Jasper.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3681 8239 3680 8236 3679 8237 3659 8258
3659 8269 3671 8298 3692 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 291DEG 30KT 3678 8283
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DGSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
TNZ081-082-099-012045-
Sequatchie TN-Bledsoe TN-Hamilton TN-
400 PM EDT Sat Jul 1 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Sequatchie,
southwestern Bledsoe and northeastern Hamilton Counties through 445
PM EDT/345 PM CDT/...
At 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northwest of Dunlap, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Dunlap, Soddy-Daisy, Lakesite, Sale Creek, Flat Top Mountain, North
Chickamauga Creek Gorge, Palio, Mowbray Mountain, Shady Grove and
Cagle.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT/800 PM
CDT/ for east Tennessee.
&&
LAT...LON 3518 8515 3537 8550 3541 8549 3541 8551
3542 8551 3543 8554 3546 8554 3553 8550
3544 8511 3543 8510 3543 8506 3541 8502
3540 8503 3538 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 295DEG 29KT 3546 8546
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
DieganThe Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:12 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and powerlines blown down across the county by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
Tree blown down by severe thunderstorm winds and struck a family swimming at a local park. One seriously injured and transported to hospital.
Trees and powerlines were blown down across the county by severe thunderstorm wind gusts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105383, 1105387, 1105388.