A strong low pressure center traveling over the central United States sent a cold front through Middle Tennessee on February 27, 2023. As the surface pressure gradient tightened in response to this system, winds strengthened areawide.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
A strong low pressure center traveling over the central United States sent a cold front through Middle Tennessee on February 27, 2023. As the surface pressure gradient tightened in response to this system, winds strengthened areawide. While most of the area observed winds between 40 and 45 mph, winds were locally stronger across Montgomery and Robertson counties. Clarksville's ASOS station recorded a 61 mph wind gust while wind damage was reported in Springfield.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 11:34 AM CST, 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1134 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1033 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Scattered showers are moving across the area this morning in association with the front. GFS and NAM forecast soundings have instability ranging from 200-500 J/kg this afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. Lapse rates are decent as well as lifted index values ranging between 0 and -1, so with all of that in mind, went ahead and included thunder in the grids for this afternoon. Once the front pushes through, the threat for thunderstorms will end for the night. The wind advisory is still in effect through 6PM tonight as the surface pressure gradient continues to tighten over the area. Several observation sites are already reporting winds of 20-25mph. Aside from the addition of thunder, the rest of the forecast is on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 134 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 Pretty quiet around Middle TN at forecast time. Some clouds, some patchy fog and a couple of light returns on radar. However, this is going to start changing in the next couple of hours. As we near sunrise and the system that is putting down some intense storms over the center of the country moves this way, we can expect the pressure gradient to tighten over the area. This will increase wind speeds to the point of Wind Advisory criteria. Sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will be possible throughout the daylight hours today. Scattered showers will also accompany the wind. I still don't have any thunder in the forecast today, but I think the winds will negate the lack of storms as some of these showers might feel strong at times. Rain should be moving off the Plateau by the middle of the afternoon and without the passage of a cold front, this will give at least the western half of the mid-state a good chance at temperatures near record values. Currently, the record high temperature today at BNA is 78, set in 1981 and that is in jeopardy. A fine day is on tap Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s -- and very little wind. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 134 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 This active weather pattern we've been in cranks back up on Wednesday. I mentioned last night that we were going to have to monitor storm activity on Wednesday and I still think this to be the case. Granted, a good source of lift is likely going to be the main missing ingredient, but forecast soundings are impressive Wednesday afternoon. Sharp mid-level lapse rates, lots of CAPE and puhlenty of shear. However, without that lift, those parameters are going to go by the wayside. Instead, as Wednesday evening rolls around and we lose those good daytime numbers, forecast soundings quickly saturate and while there will likely be some thunderstorms around, I like the chance of severe ones less. Rainfall will be moderate to heavy at times. 1 to 2.5 inches is possible as PW values creep toward 3+ standard deviations higher than normal. While I think we can withstand that much rain, it's going to be the cumulative totals that could start causing problems by the end of the week. Some of the area will probably see a break in the rainfall Thursday morning, but by the afternoon hours, yet another impulse of moderate to heavy rainfall will move in from the south. This rainfall will be part of a warm front moving through the area associated with the second shortwave of the week to come out of the southwest US. Models are still not in great agreement regarding the track of the surface low, though they are getting better. I think the Euro has it a little further north than it had last night, which is closer to the GFS. What does that mean for us? It will probably spell the chance for strong to severe storms Thursday night -- at least in our southern zones. We will continue to watch this evolution as the track of the surface low will be the deciding factor in any severe threats we may see. In any event, much like today, the pressure gradient is going to cause very windy conditions Thursday night and Friday. In total, rainfall amounts between Wednesday and Thursday night will likely be in the 3 to 5 inch range. So, I think we could at least start to see some localized flooding issues Thursday and while the weekend ahead looks nice, area rivers and creeks could be swollen from this week's rains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 MVFR conditions will quickly become VFR at BNA/MQY in the next hour as showers move east of the terminals. CSV will remain IFR/MVFR with showers and low cigs until mid to late afternoon. Behind the showers, winds are gusting to 35-40 kts out of the SW/WSW. Wind gusts will decrease after sunset as a surface low moves further north of the area and mixing decreases. After 06z winds will be around or below 5 kts for the remainder of the taf period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 79 48 73 53 / 60 0 0 0 Clarksville 76 46 71 53 / 70 0 0 0 Crossville 68 45 67 50 / 80 0 0 0 Columbia 77 47 73 53 / 50 0 0 0 Cookeville 71 46 68 53 / 80 0 0 0 Jamestown 69 46 66 50 / 80 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 76 47 73 53 / 50 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 75 46 72 53 / 60 0 0 0 Waverly 75 46 70 54 / 60 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Bedford-Cannon- Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson- Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence- Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett- Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson. && UPDATE.......Baggett SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Reagan
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Nashville TN 147 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-280800- Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston- Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson- Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury- Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee- Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- 147 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph likely today. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 6 am to 6 pm CST today. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Multiple systems during the second half of the week will present a few issues. Rainfall totals from Wednesday to Thursday night will run from 3 to 5 inches. This could cause localized flooding issues by Thursday and swollen rivers and creeks this weekend. Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday night. Damaging winds will be the main threat. While confidence is low on the severe threats, non- thunderstorms winds will be gusty again with 40 to 45 mph possible Thursday night and Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 27
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An ASOS station at Clarksville Outlaw Field Airport measured a peak wind gust of 61 mph.
High winds in Springfield caused roofing damage to the Springfield Water Department building. Damages are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1074030, 1074031.