A potent cyclone crossed northern Illinois, bringing central Indiana into its warm sector. This allowed very strong vertical wind shear courtesy of the system's strong low-level jet stream to combine with the warm sector's adequate instability, producing several severe thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IND wrote it up.
A potent cyclone crossed northern Illinois, bringing central Indiana into its warm sector. This allowed very strong vertical wind shear courtesy of the system's strong low-level jet stream to combine with the warm sector's adequate instability, producing several severe thunderstorms. Near the greatest shear and instability, small supercell thunderstorms produced severe straight line winds, with one supercell spawning two EF-1 tornadoes in Hancock County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 12:34 AM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1234 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 957 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 The forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made to match observations. Current surface analysis shows a strong low near the central plains and a weak high across the Mid-Atlantic. This low will move towards the Great Lakes Region and lead to a tightening pressure gradient late tonight into Monday. Expect winds to begin increasing overnight as a result. GOES16 shows a large area of high clouds associated with this system already streaming into central Indiana. Clouds will continue to increase in coverage and rain will begin later tonight as a warm front lifts north. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 220 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 - Wind Advisory Monday; Gusts to 50 MPH possible. - Rain expected on Monday; Thunderstorms possible. Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a large area of high pressure in place from the deep south, across Indiana to the Great Lakes and Ontario. Aloft, water vapor showed deep low pressure over the American southwest (which will become a big player in our weather on Monday), with ridging building across the plains states. This was resulting in lee side subsidence across the Ohio Valley. A tropical plume of moisture was streaming across TX within the ridge and extended toward the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. GOES16 shows high clouds associated with this plume streaming across the southern half of Indiana. Dew points across the area were in the lower to mid 30s. Tonight... Increasing clouds will be expected tonight, with scattered rain showers developing late. The previously discussed upper low across the southwestern states is expected to make quick progress across the plains toward Illinois overnight. Initially this evening the ridging aloft to the west is expected to continue to build across Indiana and the Ohio Valley leading to continued subsidence along with warm air advection through the overnight period. However, As the upper low pushes across the plains, associated surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur over Kansas. The 295K Isentropic surface shows the arrival of strong isentropic lift over Indiana ahead of the approaching low, with specific humidities over 8 g/kg. Forecast soundings suggest a gradual saturation through the night with a saturated column arriving near 12Z and pwats over 1 inch. Given the flow of the tropical plume arriving in the Ohio Valley, this should result in increasing clouds along with the development of showers late as the column becomes saturated as the forcing dynamics increase with the approach of the Low pressure system from the west. HRRR suggest showers arriving from the southwest late tonight within the isentropic lift. Thus will continue with a dry forecast this evening, but increasing pops overnight especially after 09Z. Given the ongoing warm air advection, expect steady or slowly rising temps overnight. Lows temps within the 12 hour tonight period will be achieved during the evening prior to the arrival cloud cover and warm air advection as temps in the lower 50s will be common by sunrise on Monday. Monday... An active weather day is in store on Monday. The previously mentioned surface low is expected to track across northern Illinois to Michigan through the day, deepening all the way. The past of this system will keep Central Indiana within the warm sector. Due to the deepening low, a strong low level jet is expected to pass across Central Indiana with speeds in excess of 60 knots at 850mb. As expected, the surface pressure gradient is sharp. Aloft, the associated upper system also is expected to push across Indiana through the day becoming negatively tilted through the process. These features will result in favorable forcing dynamics as forecast soundings remain deeply saturated though much of the day and pwats remain over 1 inch. Forecasts soundings fail to show much in the way of instability, and remain mainly saturated moist adiabatic. Given the favorable forcing and moisture along with an approaching surface cold front associated with the system, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be expected. Due to the strong winds aloft and the strong pressure gradient, any downburst could allow some of the stronger winds aloft to mix downward. Thus for now the ongoing wind advisory will continue as a windy day with high gusts appears reasonable. Gusts on Monday could reach near 50 mph, causing tree damage and possible power outages, and damage to unsecured objects. Will use categorical pops, but given the expected clouds and rain will try to keep highs contained to the lower 60s. && .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 220 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 Tuesday and Wednesday... Much quieter weather will ensue for the beginning of the Long Term as weak high pressure builds in a modest CAA regime Monday night. Any cold air intrusion will be brief as the Ohio Valley remains in generally S-SW flow with broad troughing over the Inter- Mountain West. A weak shortwave looks to develop along a mid level jet Tuesday night that will further reinforce this southerly flow, pushing temperatures well above normal by mid-week. Cannot rule out light rain showers on Wednesday within a corridor of isentropic lift and moisture return, but greatest QPF should remain south within stronger dynamics as a secondary low develops over the Mississippi Valley. Thursday through Saturday... The main focus on the long term will be on the impending development of a deep low pressure system late next week. Currently, this lobe of energy is over the northern Pacific, but will traverse down the Western Coast, eventually entering a favorable cyclogenesis environment over the desert SW. After which ensemble member are widely varied on low track, but are fairly consistent on deep cyclogenesis somewhere over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. Current thoughts are for this system to gradually trend northward as snow depth to the north and mid week warmth help develop a quasi-baroclinic zone, but many potential solutions, including snow are still in play. One feature to keep an eye on will be the placement of a potential surface high over Ontario. The push of CAA along the CCB will greatly impact the temperature gradient north of the warm front, and if this high continues to trend eastward, less cold air could lead to above freezing temperatures and therefor a cold rain instead of snow. Still enough possibilities remain for an impactful winter event, and should be closely monitored in the coming days. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1234 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 Impacts: * Lowering ceilings IFR later tonight with rain * Strong winds start early Monday and gusts will peak during the afternoon Discussion: Rain will increase in coverage through the night and ceilings will lower. Overall deteriorating conditions will occur. Winds will steadily increase through early morning and the strongest speeds will be behind the rain band by midday or early afternoon as winds veer and mixing increases. Gusts over 40 knots may occur. Confidence is moderate to high through the morning, but decreases midday onward. Ceilings may vary some during the afternoon with a window for VFR possible, then deteriorating with cyclonic flow and moisture advection later in the day into the evening. Wind gusts may stay up into the evening but should decrease from earlier in the day when gradient is tighter and mixing is more significant. Brief non-convective low level wind shear may occur, but surface gradient is strong enough that speed difference across the lower 2,000 feet probably won't be that significant. Turbulent, nonetheless, in the boundary layer with mechanical and some thermal mixing. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072. && Update...Melo Short Term...Puma Long Term...Updike Aviation...BRB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 327 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-272030- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 327 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts up to 50 mph are likely on Monday. There is a chance for thunderstorms on Monday. Isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts are possible. Lightning is a hazard with any thunderstorm. Snow is possible for part of the area on Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for Monday. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
The Indianapolis radar (KIND), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:35 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed individual trees at five separate locations to the southeast of Shelbyville, along or near a line from the intersection of County Roads 200 East and 600 South to the community of Blue Ridge.
Thunderstorm winds downed a tree and a power pole into a house.
This first tornado touched down approximately 3 miles south-southeast of McCordsville, damaging the roof of a warehouse. The tornado remained on the ground approximately 3.34 miles striking a farm and destroying a farm outbuilding, damaging a large and functioning historic barn (sliding it slightly off its foundation) and snapping numerous trees. The tornado then continued to the northeast, possibly skipping for the last 1.9 miles of its path, crossing Indiana State Route 234 and North Fortville Pike where it blew over a semi truck before ending. This tornado was on the ground for approximately 6 minutes with estimated peak winds of 110 mph.
Thunderstorm winds blew shingles off and tree branches down.
Thunderstorm winds downed trees and power lines.
The second tornado touched down approximately 2 miles east-southeast of Ingalls. This tornado was on the ground for about 2 minutes, and traveled approximately 0.3 miles, with estimated peak winds of 100 mph. The tornado inflicted major damaged to a metal barn, removing the roof and exterior walls. Downwind of the barn, 2x4 beams were driven into the ground at different angles. Several trees were damaged, either being snapped or blown over and uprooted.
Thunderstorm winds collapsed a barn.
Thunderstorm winds snapped a power pole at its base.
A 51 mph thunderstorm wind gust was measured north of Pickard.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Indiana, 2023Warnings in Indiana, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082953, 1082952, 1073869, 1073876, 1073873, 1073870, 1073874, 1082951, 1073877.