A couple of storms developed along a weak boundary in the late afternoon. Despite limited MLCAPE of 800-1400 J/kg and marginal deep-layer shear, a strong DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg allowed localized severe wind gusts.
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The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
A couple of storms developed along a weak boundary in the late afternoon. Despite limited MLCAPE of 800-1400 J/kg and marginal deep-layer shear, a strong DCAPE up to 1000 J/kg allowed localized severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 1:42 PM CST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 242 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Peaks of sun this afternoon as the remnants of the cloud shield from an MCS in nebraska begins to break up. Later,a subtle wave provides synoptic support as 500mb vorticity and WAA provide the lift for some afternoon convection beginning north of I-90 and moving southeast. Midlevel lapse rates are marginal but MLCAPE is slightly more robust around 800 to 1400 J/kg. Deep layer shear is 30-40 kts, so if we can get initiation, some storms may be strong and could produce gusty winds and large hail. However, the clouds are limiting our surface heating which could limit our potential somewhat. Bufkit soundings indicate we are weakly capped through Friday afternoon. This is enough to support convection, but a general lack of strong forcing leaves low confidence in storm development. The lack of LLJ overnight suggests that convection will quickly dissapate once daytime heating is lost. Winds from the surface through around 700 mb are unidirectional, and once we mix out the cap, the potential for stronger mixing could result in gusts at the surface reaching 20 mph. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the 80s Showers clear out overnight and Saturday should be dry. Strong northwesterly flow aloft brings smoke down from the Canadian wildfires over the next few days. Those who are sensitive to air quality may need to take precautions. Winds are vertically aligned again through roughly 700 mb, meaning that once we mix out the weak cap winds will again become gusty. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible as we mix down the stronger winds aloft. Colder air brought in by the northwesterly flow and the smoke layer will limit our heating potential and highs will be slightly cooler in the low 80s. Very low chance of some afternoon diurnally driven convection, however, confidence is low. A weak cold front moves through Saturday night which might spark a few very scattered showers over southcentral SD. Temperatures remain on the cooler (for July) side as winds at the surface become northwesterly. Highs in the upper 70s to 80s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 SUNDAY: Cooler than normal, mostly dry weather continues amidst dry northwest flow aloft and rising sfc pressure. We may still see impacts from wildfire smoke both aloft and/or at the surface. Expect diurnal cumulus Sunday afternoon with gusty westerly winds. Areas south of a line from Jackson MN to Yankton SD have a low chance of popup, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Cannot entirely rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm or two amidst unidirectional shear with MUCAPE > 1500 J/kg and 40+ kts of 0-6km deep layer shear if capping can be broken, though forcing for ascent is very limited aside from weak warm air advection. MONDAY: We're looking at very pleasant weather to start the week. Amidst sfc high pressure, we'll be capped aloft with light winds and afternoon high temperatures only reaching the 70s to mid 80s. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: The broader atmospheric pattern becomes more active mid week as omega blocking centered over the West finally breaks down and the central U.S. comes under zonal flow aloft. A stationary front lingers across the Central Plains, draped from New England back toward the Midwest and northward up the High Plains. This front becomes a focus for our next areawide chances for showers and thunderstorms as a few shortwaves pivot through aloft and we come into the warm sector with increased heat and humidity again, aided by the low level jet. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: An early glance at late next week shows another relatively cooler, dry period with sfc high pressure taking hold in northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 VFR conditions and breezy west winds will prevail through at least early evening. Isolated showers in northwest Iowa will exit the region by mid afternoon. Expect mid level cumulus development this afternoon near and north of the I-90 corridor. Given the low but nonzero chance for isolated shower and storm development late this afternoon, did not include in TAF at this time. Otherwise the main impact to aviation through tomorrow will be Canadian wildfire smoke spreading south. Initial impacts will be aloft but smoke may cause MVFR visibility as it spreads in near the surface overnight and through Saturday. Have held off on including vsby restrictions until timing is better refined, but upstream observations indicate 3 to 6 SM vsby is likely at times by Saturday. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && SHORT TERM...AJP LONG TERM...BP AVIATION...BP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 337 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-152045- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory- Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook- Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-Yankton- Union- 337 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through tonight. Severe weather is unlikely. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
520 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0508 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 5 W Plankinton 43.71N 98.58W
07/14/2023 M51 MPH Aurora SD Mesonet
Mesonet station 214 SD RWIS Plankinton.
&&
PSThe Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 134 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:26 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds were measured by a personal weather station 5 miles north-northeast of Stickney.
Thunderstorm wind gusts up to 67 mph were measured by South Dakota Road Weather Information System site SD588 2 miles west-southwest of Pickstown.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in South Dakota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in South Dakota, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1123926, 1123927.