NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 9:20 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 9:20 PM EST, 2 hours 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passing through on Thursday will be
accompanied by mild temperatures and some light showers before a
stronger storm system tracks across our region Friday and
Friday night. This system looks to bring another mixed bag of
wintry precipitation. High pressure returns late in the weekend
and will remain in control through the early part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak low pressure was located off the Delaware coast around
9:00 PM. The low was located along a developing warm front.
While some clearing had taken place to the south of the boundary
in eastern Maryland and Delaware, the area of clouds was
expanding and lowering in much of New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania.
We can expect the warm front to attempt to lift northward and
farther into our region overnight. However, it will likely
struggle to make progress, remaining quasi-stationary across
northeastern Maryland, northern Delaware, and extreme southern
New Jersey. Regardless, southerly flow will continue to advect
moisture and warm air into our area, resulting in more low
clouds, areas of fog, and drizzle overnight. A few showers may
be possible as well, though there isn't much strong upper level
support to result in any robust rainfall. With warm air
advection and ample cloud coverage, not expecting low
temperatures to drop too far overnight. Generally expecting
upper 30s to upper 40s across the region with some southern
points even expected to see some gradual warming early Thursday
morning as the warm front inches north. The Poconos could touch
freezing momentarily, but temperatures on the plateau should
even remain above freezing.
Clouds, fog, and some rain showers are expected to linger after
daybreak Thursday morning before the cold front associated with
our weak low finally sweeps through the region late morning
into the early afternoon, providing a westerly flow to help
usher in drier air and clear out our clouds/fog. Expect warm
temperatures ahead of the front with highs reaching the upper
50s to mid 60s before cooler air behind the cold front helps
bring temps back down slightly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main story for this part of the forecast is the storm
system expected for Friday into early Saturday. In the big
picture, the main change with this update is that most forecast
models continue to trend towards a somewhat later arrival of the
system. Not too surprising given the blocking pattern starting
to take shape over the north Atlantic. Much of the forecast area
may not see any precip until Friday afternoon or even the early
evening. Thinking is still that a primary low will track north
and east from Texas towards the lower Great Lakes from late day
Thursday to late day Friday. A secondary low will then take
shape Friday night near or just west of Delmarva with this low
then tracking northeast towards Long Island by Saturday morning
as it strengthens and takes over as the main low. This is
generally not a favorably track for wintry precip for the urban
corridor but we still expect there will be some snow and ice
with this system farther north towards the I-78 and especially
the I-80 corridor. Other threats with this system will be strong
winds near the coast, potentially getting close to advisory
levels, with the increasing threat for coastal flooding as well
(detailed in the coastal flooding section below). Finally, there
will be at least some potential for localized freshwater
flooding Friday night in any heavier bands of rain that set up.
Getting into the forecast details, cold front will sweep
offshore Thursday evening with high pressure then building in to
our north Thursday night bringing a period of some clearing
skies with colder, drier air advecting in from the north. Expect
lows by Friday morning ranging from the 20s north to the low
30s near the urban corridor with mid to upper 30s farther south.
For Friday, with the slower timing there could even a bit of
filtered sunshine in the morning before clouds thicken and lower
by afternoon. Precip will arrive from west to east and could
develop as early as around midday over Delmarva before spreading
east through the rest of the area during the afternoon and
early evening. This later arrival into the day Friday should
allow temperatures to get a bit warmer than previously forecast
with highs ranging from the mid 30s north to the low to mid 40s
south. For this reason, much of the area except our far northern
counties (Carbon and Monroe in PA, Sussex County NJ) could see
precip start as rain before temperatures cool through the late
afternoon into the early evening due to evaporational cooling
effects. At this point though, thinking this later arrival with
warmer temperatures should preclude any wintry impacts near the
I-95 corridor. Farther north though, any rain should trend
towards a wintry mix near the I-78 corridor and especially and
north of the I-80 corridor as we get into Friday evening. This
will be due to temperatures cooling at the surface as warmer air
moves in aloft.
Friday evening into the overnight is when the heaviest precip
with the storm is expected as the secondary low develops and
basically tracks right through moving from Delmarva northeast
through NJ. This will draw warmer air from the south and
southeast near and south of the storm's track. In fact forecast
models are indicating there will be a 60+ knot LLJ near 925 mb
aiding in moisture transport into the area and also resulting in
increasing winds, especially near the coast where E/SE winds
may gust 35 to 45 mph. There may even be some embedded thunder
here as well due to elevated convection from the warmer air
advecting in aloft. Otherwise, expect rain, heavy at times
Friday night with a wintry mix continuing farther north
near/north of I-78 but with this transition zone eventually
shifting a bit farther to the north as the low tracks across.
That said, still think think higher elevations of the southern
Poconos and NW NJ will hold with surface temperatures staying at
or below freezing. The precip should eventually wind down west
to east by late Friday night or early Saturday. In terms of
accumulations, still expecting upwards of 1 to 3 inches of
snow/sleet near and north of I-80 with the potential for a tenth
to quarter inch of ice accretion here as well due to to
freezing rain. Accumulations should quickly taper heading
farther south though with only a coating up to a half inch or so
of snow, if that near and just south of I-80 Any ice accretion
that occurs here should be minimal as well. Finally, its worth
noting since this event is still 48+ hours out confidence on
specific snow and ice amounts remains on the lower side. A shift
in the storm track farther north could result in lesser
amounts.
For Saturday, storm exits to the east but there may be some
scattered lingering showers around over portions of eastern PA
and NJ. Otherwise, expect considerable clouds around with highs
near 40 over the southern Poconos and NW NJ, around 50 near the
urban corridor, and into the 50s farther south/east.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mid-level ridging with surface high pressure moving in will
result in a quiet end to the weekend and start of the work week.
Should be mainly dry through Monday with seasonal early March
temperatures- daytime highs in the 40s across the Lehigh Valley
and northern NJ, with low 50s across the Philly metro, South
Jersey, and Delmarva.
Next chance for precipitation could come Tuesday, though a lot
of uncertainty remains. General signal from guidance has a weak
system moving through or no system at all with prevailing quiet
weather. More details to come as it gets closer. Stronger signal
for near- normal temperatures continuing for the middle part of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Overnight...Ceilings gradually lowering to IFR at all of our
TAF sites with additional visibility restrictions developing.
Some light rain and drizzle are expected. Southeast wind 8 knots
or less, becoming variable 4 knots or less. Low to medium
confidence.
Thursday...IFR conditions in the morning, gradually improving
to MVFR around midday, then to VFR in the afternoon with
decreasing cloud cover. Southwest to west wind 4 to 8 knots in
the morning, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts around
20 knots in the afternoon. High confidence in the overall
improving trend, but low confidence in the exact timing.
Outlook...
Thursday Night...VFR. Increasing clouds ahead of the next
system. Northerly winds around 5-10 kts. High confidence.
Friday through Friday night...It may still mainly VFR through
at least the first of half of Friday due to slower arrival of
system. Precip moves in west to east by the afternoon into the
early evening with deteriorating conditions to sub VFR...IFR
eventually. Mainly just rain for the I-95 TAF sites and point
south with still some potential for a wintry mix at times for
RDG and ABE. East/Northeast wind around 10-20 kts with gusts
around 30 kts possible late in the day and into Friday night.
Moderate confidence overall.
Saturday...Improving conditions as the day goes on though some
lingering restrictions possible in the morning. West/northwest
winds around 10-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts. Moderate
confidence.
Sunday through Monday...VFR. West/northwest winds around 10-15
kts. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas will remain elevated on our ocean waters overnight, so we
will extend the SCA until 4:00 AM Thursday. Winds will remain
below SCA criteria with SE winds around 10 kts, veering to the
SW overnight. For Thursday, winds shift from SW 10-15 kts in the
morning to the NW 10- 15 kts with a few gusts nearing 20 kts
behind a cold front that will pass through in the afternoon.
Seas looks to inch back up again and hover right around SCA
criteria (4-5 feet) but confidence remains too low to extend the
current headline that far out.
Outlook...
Thursday Night...sub-SCA conditions likely. North/Northeast
winds around 10-15 kts with seas around 3 to 4 feet.
Friday through Friday Night...SCA conditions likely as seas
build as the day goes on, getting to around 6-10 feet by the
evening. Winds will also get above SCA criteria during the day
with gusts around 25- 30 kts possible likely by late day. Gales
possible on Friday night as winds ramp up further with southerly
gusts up to 40 kts possible. Wind direction will be easterly
for Friday, with a more south/southeast direction expected
overnight.
Saturday through Saturday Night...Winds diminishing as the day
goes on, though SCA conditions still likely due to seas. Gales
diminishing in the morning. West/Northwest winds around 15-20
kts. Seas around 5 to 7 feet.
Sunday through Monday...SCA conditions possible during the day
on Sunday as seas will be near 5 feet. West/Northwest winds
around 10-15 kts. Seas should relax by Sunday night with a
return to sub- SCA conditions which will continue through
Monday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
An area of low pressure is expected to develop near the
Delmarva peninsula, moving offshore on Friday night. This will
result in a period of onshore flow, with minor coastal flooding
possible with the Saturday morning high tide. Intensity of
coastal flooding will depend on the track and timing of the low.
Based on current guidance, thinking the largest threat for
coastal flooding is for the NJ coast, with a lesser threat for
coastal Delaware, Delaware and Chesapeake Bay communities, and
the tidal Delaware River.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
ANZ430-431-450>455.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for
ANZ450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/MJL
NEAR TERM...Iovino/MJL
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Iovino
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/MJL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Staff