Widely scattered showers and storms developed over central and eastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon of June 6, 2023. The boundary layer was relatively dry, with dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s, and there was only modest shear.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Widely scattered showers and storms developed over central and eastern Pennsylvania during the afternoon of June 6, 2023. The boundary layer was relatively dry, with dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s, and there was only modest shear. However, steep mid-level lapse rates did help to produce some modest CAPE (500 J/kg). A couple of the storms that developed produced damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 6, 12:21 PM EST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 121 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and breezy conditions will be favorable for dangerous wildfire spread through the evening, mainly across easter PA. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec, Canada will result in hazy skies and poor/unhealthy air quality today. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler into late week with an increased risk of scattered rain showers Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A short wave dropping southward from upstate NY along the west side of a deep upper low over Nova Scotia will reach northern PA by this evening. Hi-res models indicate isolated convection is possible in advance of the second s/w this afternoon-evening mainly over east central PA. This has been verified by development of a few thundershowers ongoing at this time. Both NAM and RAP forecast soundings depict inverted-v soundings extending up to an altitude between 850-700 mb, with PW values in the 0.50-0.80 range, which tends to be quite favorable for dry thunderstorms. See fire weather section for more info on conditions and anticipated product flow for later this morning. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec, Canada will result in hazy skies and poor/unhealthy air quality today. PA/DEP has issued an AQA for the Lower Susquehanna Valley. We added both haze and smoke to weather grids today with 5-6SM visibility restrictions and air quality impacts. Outside of potential fire weather/smoke impacts, not a bad day Summer day overall with hazy sunshine and breezy conditions with maxT generally in the 70-80F range or +/- 5F either side of early June climo. Any isolated showers/t-storm should dissipate this evening, giving way to another mainly clear, cloud-wise, and cool night (minT 40-50F or -5 to -10F below climo) thanks to abnormally dry/low pWAT air filtering into CPA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Similar pattern setup expected for Wednesday with aforementioned upper trough expanding over New England and the Mid Atlantic states. Airmass remains quite dry for this time of year and expect any diurnal convection to remain spotty to isolated at best. MaxTs trend a few to several degrees cooler vs. Tuesday with daytime highs AOB daily climo. Smoke and haze issued will also likely to continue to reduce visibility and air quality. Fire weather risk remains elevated given ongoing abnormally dry to moderate drought, low RH and breezy conditions. SPC has outlined an elevated risk on the Day 2 fire weather outlook. Another mainly clear and cool night with lows in the 40-50F range. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The various ensemble prediction systems remain consistent in their depiction of the large-scale pattern heading into the weekend and early next week. The pattern will consist of a low amplitude upper trough axis across eastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS, with an upper ridge axis holding firm over the middle of the CONUS and central Canada. Resultant NW flow aloft will keep any sustained heat well west of the Commonwealth, with a progressive surface cold front likely to cross the region Sunday or Monday. However, transition from current blocking pattern is still not fully certain, and so what we can say for sure is that Sunday into Monday may present the best CHANCE of rain we'll see for the next week, but it's far from certain at this early time. As for the daily sensible weather, Saturday continues to look mainly dry. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible on Sunday, tied to the aforementioned cold front. Shower chances may linger into Monday, depending on the progression of the frontal zone. Friday's highs in the 70s, will warm into the mid 70s-mid 80s over the weekend, before edging downward into the 70s range again on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Surface ridging over the area is likely to result in mostly VFR conditions this morning. Smoke from wildfires over Quebec could potentially drop vsbys into the MVFR range over parts of central PA into mid morning. Otherwise the focus today will be on a cold front, which will sweep south across the region. The airmass is likely to remain too dry to support any showers, but an isolated shower or thundershower is possible, mainly east. Northwest winds are likely to become gusty during the late morning and afternoon hours. Bufkit soundings support gusts between 20-25kts over most of the region. Vsby reductions from Quebec wildfires will remain a possibility Tuesday, especially during the afternoon over northern PA. Any vsby reductions should be in the 4-8sm range. Outlook... Wed-Sat...No sig wx expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated risk to critical fire weather conditions expected late this morning through the evening across portions of east-central PA. As highlighted in the near term section, there is the very rare potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across central PA. Parched soils and dry fuels combined with wind conditions are signaling potential Red Flag conditions. Similar risks will exist tomorrow with little change in the pattern. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ006-012- 018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Gartner NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Gartner SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Jurewicz/DeVoir AVIATION...Gartner/Colbert FIRE WEATHER...Gartner/Banghoff
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 838 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059- 063>066-071245- Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union- Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill- Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 838 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Red Flag Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-071245- Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset- 838 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Dry air and gusty winds may result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 833 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-070000- Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset- 833 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023 ...ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... A combination of dry and windy conditions this afternoon will create an elevated risk of wildfire spread across western Pennsylvania. Minimum relative humidity values will range from 20 to 35 percent accompanied by wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph. Residents are urged to exercise caution if handling any potential ignition sources, such as machinery, cigarettes, or matches. If dry grasses and tree litter begin to burn, the fire will have the potential to spread rapidly. For more information about wildfire danger and wildfire prevention and education, please visit the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources website at http://dcnr.pa.gov/Communities/Wildfire.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
102 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
PAZ027-028-056-061745-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-
102 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MIFFLIN...NORTHWESTERN
JUNIATA AND CENTRAL PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...
At 101 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lewistown, moving southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Burnham, Newport, Milroy, Highland Park, Yeagertown,
Spruce Hill, Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Mexico, Alfarata,
Loysville, Ickesburg, Walnut, Mifflintown, Port Royal, Thompsontown,
Mifflin and Maitland.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4065 7767 4074 7755 4050 7708 4031 7739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 317DEG 29KT 4064 7755
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
TravisThe State College radar (KCCX), 48 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:28 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced wind damage to the roof of a home in Yeagertown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph produced multiple reports of trees down in Newberry, Conewago, and Manchester townships.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1099025, 1099024.