Rip Current in Florida, June 6, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
311 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

High pressure to the east this afternoon is allowing light south
to SW winds inland and southeasterly winds behind the Atlantic
seabreeze as it moves towards highway 301 and creates a few pop
up showers combining with the Gulf coast seabreeze. A thunderstorm
is also possible, but dry air should limit potential. Highs will
be near normal around 90 degrees inland and near to slightly below
normal in the mid/upper 80s at the coast, then cooling to near
normal overnight in the mid/upper 60s inland and the low 70s at
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Increasing moisture due to SW flow ahead of a slowly sinking cold
front will lead to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms
as diurnal heating and seabreeze interactions combine, focused
over areas along and east of Highway 301 over NE FL including the
St Johns river basin where highest axis of moisture will be
located with seabreeze convergence. Highs again near normal around
90 degrees inland and mid 80s coast. Scattered to Numerous
showers and storms will be in store for Thursday across both NE FL
and SE GA as the front continues to slowly sink into southern GA
from the north. Highs will be similar to Wednesday into the low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

The front will stall over NE FL Friday with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms as the frontal boundary, diurnal
heating and seabreeze interactions combine, with some decreasing
coverage over inland SE GA as weak high pressure builds in from
the NW. Decreasing coverage of showers and storms expected this
weekend into Monday as the front stalls just south of the area as
weak high pressure builds to the north and then northeast.
Elevated west southwesterly winds on Thursday will become more
east to southeasterly this weekend.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday, near normal Friday over
NE FL and below normal over coastal SE GA, then trend to more slightly
above normal over the areas this weekend into next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Visible imagery shows a few cumulus cloud streets developing and
the sea breeze fronts are moving inland. Everything is on track
from previous discussions and with only isolated convection
developing will continue with VCTS in the afternoon-evening
portion of the TAFs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Persistent onshore flow and the slightly elevated astronomical
tides will lead to at least one more round of minor tidal flooding
along over the St Johns river basin through tonight so will keep
the Coastal Flood advisory in effect until the early morning hours
of Wednesday for isolated minor flooding impacts of water levels
up to 1.5-2.0 feet above MHHW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  90  69  91 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  72  90  72  87 /  10  30  20  60
JAX  70  91  70  91 /  10  60  30  70
SGJ  70  88  70  89 /  10  70  40  60
GNV  68  89  69  90 /  20  70  30  60
OCF  68  88  69  88 /  20  70  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ033-038-
     132-137-225-325.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&