Hail and Lightning Strike in New York, June 6, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
140 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England today into tonight. The unsettled weather continues
Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper low
over northern New England.  Temperatures will run cooler than normal
to close the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Smoke and haze over the region with a few isolated showers and
thunderstorms forming. Showers and thunderstorms track south
through the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will hold near
current forecasted highs in the 60s to lower 70s. Midlevel lapse
rates are steep and CAPEs could approach 1000 j/kg in some
areas but shear is weak. Some dry air at low level and midlevels
could enhance downdrafts in deeper thunderstorms. Some hail is
possible as well. SPC has much of our area in a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms, so an isolated damaging wind gust or
large hail is possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...Any convection should weaken with the loss of the
diurnal heating. In the cyclonic flow, isolated to scattered
showers will linger and it will be cool. Lows fall back into the
40s with a few upper 30s over the eastern Catskills.

Wednesday the upper low moves over Northern New England. Heights
fall a couple STDEVs below normal with H850 temps -1 to -2
STDEVS below normal. The cyclonic vorticity with the mid and
upper level low will focus some scattered showers. It will be
cool with temps in the upper 50s over the northern zones to the
lower 70s in the mid Hudson Valley. Overall, highs will be about
5-7 degrees below normal.

Wed night through Thursday more coolish weather will impact the
forecast area for June with isolated to scattered showers Wed
evening with the coverage becoming less overnight. Lows will
again be in the 40s. Thursday, expect showers to ignite timed to
the diurnal heating with the closed/cutoff low hanging on over
Maine. Highs will struggle to clear the 60s with 50s over the
mtns. The rainfall is much needed after an anomalously dry May.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather and normal to cooler than normal temperatures can
be expected during the long-term forecast period. Global
deterministic models and ensembles continue to advertise a large mid-
upper trough over the Northeast U.S. late week. While this feature
will slowly slide off/depart to the east late week into the weekend,
it will bring chances for diurnal showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms.

Sunday into the early parts of next week, forecast models are
suggesting a more widespread chance for rain (showers and perhaps
thunder) as a cold front approaches and moves over the area.

As highlighted earlier, temperatures are expected to run near normal
to cooler than normal levels during the period thanks to the mid-
upper trough that will be in place. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the 60s areawide with areas along the river
valleys near 70F. Saturday through Tuesday, highs are expected to be
mainly in the mid 70s along the river valleys (60s higher
elevations). Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s
and 50s about the area during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms will affect areas mainly near
and east of the Hudson River through sunset, with brief periods
of IFR Vsbys possible. Some of the thunderstorms could contain
gusty winds and small hail. Outside of any showers/thunderstorms,
smoke/haze will keep Vsbys mainly MVFR through this evening
across the region as smoke from eastern Canadian wildfires
continues to stream into the region. Vsbys may improve later
tonight into Wednesday morning from north to south.

Some patchy fog could form tonight as breaks in the clouds
develop, especially within any areas which receive afternoon
shower/storms. This could lead to periods of IFR Vsbys/Cigs,
with best chances at KGFL and KPSF.

Winds will be west to northwest at 5-10 KT through sunset, then
shift into the north at generally less than 8 KT tonight. Winds
will be north to northwest at 8-12 KT Wednesday, with a few
gusts of 15-20 KT possible by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...KL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
432 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-071100-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-
Southern Fulton-Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-
Northern Washington-Schoharie-Western Schenectady-
Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany-
Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-
Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Bennington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
432 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a chance of mainly non severe thunderstorms this afternoon
into the early evening. Some of the thunderstorms will have small
hail a half an inch in diameter or less and gusty winds 35 to 50
mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
1248 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

NYZ042-043-061715-
Northern Washington NY-Northern Warren NY-
1248 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Warren
and northwestern Washington Counties through 115 PM EDT...

At 1248 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bolton Landing, or 10 miles northeast of Warrensburg, moving south at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bolton Landing, Bolton, Shelving Rock, North Bolton, Pilot Knob and
Hogtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4366 7373 4370 7357 4354 7344 4349 7367
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 340DEG 12KT 4363 7363

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Picard

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
103 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

NYZ039-040-049-050-061730-
Southern Fulton NY-Eastern Schenectady NY-Montgomery NY-
Southern Saratoga NY-
103 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Schenectady, southeastern Fulton, southwestern Saratoga and east
central Montgomery Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 103 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Broadalbin, or 7 miles northeast of Amsterdam, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Glenville, Galway, Pattersonville-Rotterdam Junction, Charlton,
Beyers Corners, Hoeseville, Bunn Corners, Cummings Corners, Lower
Corners, Fairweather Corners, Steele Corners, Hoffmans, Honeywell
Corners, West Charlton, Mills Corners, Holbrook Corners, Harmony
Corners, O'brien Corners, Shuttleworth Corners and Pattersonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7417 4308 7411 4295 7390 4287 7408
      4289 7409 4289 7410
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 325DEG 16KT 4303 7412

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Picard

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
131 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

NYZ041-084-061800-
Southern Washington NY-Northern Saratoga NY-
131 PM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Saratoga and southwestern Washington Counties through 200 PM EDT...

At 130 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Greenwich, or 8 miles northeast of Saratoga
Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwich, Gates, Northumberland, Schuylerville, Victory, Bacon Hill,
Clarks Mills, Coveville, Grangerville, Victory Mills, Middle Falls,
Thomson, Callahans Corners, Bald Mountain, Starks Knob and Fort
Miller.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4314 7368 4318 7361 4307 7343 4299 7360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 326DEG 15KT 4313 7362

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Picard