Very similarly to the previous winter storm, a cold front moved southeast across the southern Oregon coast into Josephine County and northern California.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Very similarly to the previous winter storm, a cold front moved southeast across the southern Oregon coast into Josephine County and northern California.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 7, 2:53 AM PST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
253 AM PST Tue Mar 7 2023
.DISCUSSION...A band of showers is moving over the coast range on
radar early this morning as we begin to observe the trough that
has been parked offshore of the PNW begin to absorb another lobe
of energy from other areas of low pressure in the Arctic and eject
it into our region. At the beaches, observations show about 0.05"
fell from this band, suggesting anywhere from 0.3" to 0.6" of
snow could have fallen at higher elevations depending on the snow-
to- liquid ratio (our forecasted ratio is from 5:1 up to 12:1 at
the higher peaks).
This is kicking off another period of minor to moderately
impactful winter this morning through Wednesday morning, across
most commuter roads and city areas; unless you so choose to head
out into the backcountry of Siskiyou County or Kalmiopsis
Wilderness, in which case you should expect very impactful winter
conditions. We did make a few changes to the forecast this
evening. Though in general, the synoptic pattern described in
previous discussions remains the same.
The numerical changes to the forecast include lowering the chance
for precipitation in west side valleys and the klamath Basin by
about 20 percent because the steering flow at 700 mb will be from
the south and downslope induced shadowing can be expected. The
next change was to increase wind speeds in the Shasta Valley near
Weed, which increased peak gusts into the 25-40 mph range around
4-PM to 10-PM. These gust speeds remain below advisory criteria
but, could make conditions difficult because we expect snow in the
area to begin to reach a peak at that time, and so blowing snow
may lead to some dips in visibility and drifting snow.
Additionally, wind speeds were increased across the east side when
the wind direction turns westerly Wednesday morning, but like the
Shasta Valley, winds will remain below advisory criteria. And
lastly, thunderstorm chances of 15-25% were added to the
forecast. The best chances for lightning will be out over the
Pacific and along the immediate coast where the initial upslope
from the coast range will enhance the strength of showers. Folks
along the coast can also expect accumulating graupel from these
showers too.
The changes to the hazards include adding a winter weather
advisory to the Shasta Valley for Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. We expect the greatest impact to be in the Weed
area, where some residual upslope shower activity and the winds
discussed earlier will deliver the greatest impact. However, with
the best chances for snow coming at night, it does increase the
chances for impacts on roads and so most of the Valley was
included. But, the greatest impact from the snow should be over
before the morning commute. The other change in the hazard
headlines was to change the time for the winter weather advisory
in Modoc County. That area, especially the Warners, favors west
flow (upslope) and so the advisory was trimmed to start later at
10-PM Tuesday night when the steering flow turns westerly on the
backside of this short wave, rather than being out through the
whole event.
The last thing we are keeping an eye on is the potential need for
freezing conditions along the coast (mostly the Curry County
coast). Probabilistic guidance suggests the chance of freezing
temperatures at Brookings is 20%, which seems a bit low
considering a majority of guidance is showing the freezing
conditions. Timing is also an issue. The freezing conditions are
only forecast to last one, maybe two hours at most. This would not
meet our criteria for a freeze headline and because of this I am
going to hold off putting out a watch, letting the day shift have
one final look at it.
-Miles
&&
.AVIATION...07/06Z TAFs...The prevailing condition across most of
the area is VFR with isolated to scattered showers. These showers
could briefly lower conditions to MVFR or even local IFR, with areas
of higher terrain obscured. Current snow levels are around 1500 to
2000 feet, dropping back to 500 feet overnight over inland areas
(Overnight coastal freezing levels are expected to stay at 1500
feet). Isolated to scattered showers continue Tuesday morning with
conditions quite similar to those of Monday. Snow levels increase
during the day to around 1500 to 2000 feet while a band of moderate
to heavy precipitation moves into southwest Oregon and Siskiyou
County with mountain obscuration and areas of MVFR spreading to the
Cascades.
Snow levels will drop again Tuesday night with persistence of mainly
MVFR with snow west of the Cascades, and mainly VFR on the east side.
-DW
&&
.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Tuesday, March 7, 2023...Seas will
gradually subside Tuesday into Wednesday. Meantime, low pressure
near the coast will continue to bring showers and a slight chance of
thunderstorms. The next strong front arrives late Wednesday night
into Thursday night with gales and very steep seas possible. Also,
building seas may possibly become very high with a peak likely late
Thursday night. A gale watch remains in effect late Wednesday night
into Friday morning.
-DW/AH
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday above 1500 feet
for ORZ022.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Wednesday above 1500 feet for ORZ023-026.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ024.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for ORZ024.
CA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ080.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ080.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Wednesday for CAZ081.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ082-083.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for CAZ085.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through
Friday morning for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 1 to 12 inches of snow, including 1 to 4 inches of snow at the immediate coast.
National gridded snowfall analysis indicated 1 to 8 inches of snow at elevations above 1500 feet. This includes a report of 7 inches at O'Brien.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1089806, 1089807.