Drought in Nebraska, March 7 to 31, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1146 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023

Key Messages:

* Thick stratus encompassed much of the local area today...helping
  to hold down temperatures.

* Cloud cover is expected to persist on Tuesday as an upper level
  disturbance crosses the area from the southwest. This will
  result in continued cool temperatures and an increasing chance
  for light rain or drizzle through the daytime hours.

* As temperatures fall Tuesday night...a light wintry mix of
  precipitation is possible...but little to no snow/ice
  accumulation is expected with this first disturbance.

* A better chance for rain/snow is expected with a stronger upper
  level disturbance Wednesday night into Thursday. This system has
  trended warmer across the local area with the brunt of the
  system still focused across the Dakotas. Any snowfall
  accumulation more than just a dusting should remain north of
  I-80, with 1-3 inches possible north of highway 92.

* A couple small precipitation chances and seasonably cool
  temperatures expected over next weekend, but low impacts are
  expected from any precip over this period.

After a foggy start to the day across part of the local
area...stratus filled in from the north to cover just about the
entire forecast area by afternoon. This increased cloud cover
helped hold down forecast temperatures several degrees...and made
for a cool and occasionally blustery day across the area. As
winds shift and weaken some overnight...expect the potential for
at least patchy fog development across the local area...although
the signal is much weaker than what we saw this morning. That
said...given the upslope component of the light easterly
breezes...thought the potential was at least worth a mention to
start the day Tuesday.

As we transition into the daytime hours Tuesday, expect the
surface flow to turn more southerly as an upper level disturbance
rapidly moves from the desert southwest across the local area. The
NAM/RAP/HRRR all indicate some light precip moving across the area
with this disturbance tomorrow/tomorrow night...increasing
confidence in some light precip. Given the model soundings and
splotchy looking nature of precip in the NAM...opted to keep the
precipitation type as mainly light drizzle during the daytime
hours Tuesday...changing over the a light mix of precip overnight
as temperatures drop. While there is a small chance for this
wintry mix...most of the precip should fall as either light rain
or snow Tuesday night...with little to no ice...or for that
matter snowfall...accumulation expected.

The focus then shifts to the next upper level disturbance in
westerly flow expected to reach the local area Wednesday night
into Thursday. With the focus of this system to our north, chances
have trended more towards rain across the local area the past
couple of days, although areas across our north could still see
some light accumulating snowfall. This should mainly impact areas
north of highway 92, where the thinking is 1 to 3 inches of
snowfall could accumulate Thursday. Elsewhere...mainly rain is
expected...although totals remain somewhat uncertain as the GFS
continues to be one of the wetter solutions. In short...expect
anywhere from a tenth to up to a half an inch of liquid
precipitation for the majority of the local area, with the better
chances expected across northern and eastern sections of the area.

Thereafter...brief riding aloft is expected for the end of the
week before another quick moving upper level disturbance crosses
the local area from the west. This should keep temperatures near
to slightly below normal over the upcoming weekend...along with
proving small chances for additional light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023

MVFR conditions at the start of the forecast period will give way
to IFR conditions with stratus expected to roll in over the next
couple of hours. Northeast winds remain around 7-12kts through the
overnight, transitioning to the east heading into mid-day.
Ceilings are expected to improve to MVFR conditions around mid-
day, remaining through the end of the TAF period. Drizzle and
freezing drizzle develop Tuesday evening, followed by chances for
rain and snow. Have left the mention of drizzle out of prevailing
conditions for now, but this will be something to keep an eye out
for as we get further into tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Wekesser

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
215 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
072015-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
215 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A light wintry mix of rain and snow, occasionally mixed with
light freezing rain and sleet becomes possible Tuesday evening
and continues through Wednesday. Accumulation will be minimal, but
some slick spots could develop on area roads, mainly for areas
near and west of highway 281.

Chances for rain and snow increase late Wednesday night through
Thursday. Only a dusting of snow is expected near the I-80
corridor, with the heaviest snowfall totals across the local area
expected north of highway 92. Early estimates are for around 1 to
3 inches of snow for areas near and north of highway 92.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi