Drought in Oklahoma, June 27 to 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

A cold front that is providing temporary relief from heat and high
humidity (most areas), has become nearly stationary across far
southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas. Although convergence along
this boundary is weak, afternoon heating may result in a storm or
two near our far southeast counties this afternoon. Will also have
low chances of thunderstorms moving into far western Oklahoma
mainly late this evening.

A transition day occurs Tuesday, as south to southwest winds
increase during the day and higher theta-e air is advected
northward. Deeper mixing across western north Texas and southwest
Oklahoma is expected to result in less humid, but much hotter air
temperatures. A little unsure about mixing and the overall impact
regarding a sultry air mass over the rest of the area. Rather high
probabilities of at least 105 to 110 heat index values across
parts of south central and southeast Oklahoma with lower
confidence to the north. It is possible that mid 70 dewpoint air
will be in place during peak heating across parts of central (OKC
area) and perhaps north central Oklahoma. For now we will likely
issue a Heat Advisory for parts of south central and southeast
Oklahoma for Tuesday and this will extend into parts of western
north Texas/southwestern Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

There is better agreement with guidance for thunderstorm development
across southeastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon.  Despite very warm
7H temperatures, storm organization/cold pool development may be
sufficient for thunderstorms to impact at least far northern
Oklahoma perhaps farther south. Based on the timing of the event,
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will be the main hazard with
some potential for hail, especially during the early to mid
evening hours. For now, thunderstorm chances will be limited to
about 20-30 percent, but higher probabilities are possible with
the next forecast.

Very hot temperatures are expected Wednesday across all of
Oklahoma with the hottest readings expected across southwest
Oklahoma and western north Texas. Low afternoon humidity with a
breezy southwest wind Wednesday will even elevate fire weather
conditions, mainly during the peak burning period.

Similar conditions are expected Thursday with perhaps slightly
lower afternoon temperatures. Rain chances will remain very
low as well.

There seems to be a reasonable chance that much of Oklahoma and
western north Texas will transition into west to northwest flow
over the weekend. This will coincide with a return to near normal
temperatures and an increase in rain and storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

Clear/VFR skies will continue at most sites throughout the
overnight period. Winds from the southeast will increase to about
10 knots at most sites by mid-morning tomorrow. VFR conditions
will continue throughout the day. A chance for thunderstorms will
increase after 0Z tomorrow evening across northwest Oklahoma,
shifting eastward to north central Oklahoma by 06Z. Wind gusts up
to 55 knots will be the primary concern with those storms.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  91  73  96  75 /   0  20  10  10
Hobart OK         94  73 105  75 /   0  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 102  76 109  79 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           89  69  97  72 /   0  20  10  30
Ponca City OK     90  68  93  74 /   0  20  20  30
Durant OK         97  77 100  78 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ031-032-037-
     041>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
859 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-280200-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
859 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Low thunderstorm chances exist across northern, central, and
southeast Oklahoma overnight. If storms develop, strong wind
gusts are possible but organized severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday evening and Tuesday night
across portions of Oklahoma north of Interstate-40. Chances for
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be mainly
confined to far northern portions of the state.

More widespread thunderstorm chances arrive Friday night and
continue through next weekend.

.Heat...
Triple digit heat and heat indices are expected along and south of
Interstate 40 Tuesday afternoon.

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