Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 27, 2023

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
132 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this overnight from the west.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through early
Tuesday morning. Trough remains over the area on Tuesday,
bringing another chance for showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1100 PM EDT Monday...

Quick update to add SVR Tstm Watch 398 for all of NE NC until
10z/6 AM. Currently watching the complex of tstms just east of
RDU which could impact NE NC between midnight-3 AM. This is the
one area (along with Hampton Roads/interior SE VA) where there
is still moderate to strong instability and any storm that does
move in could produce large hail and damaging winds. While the
watch goes until 6 AM, do expect the SVR threat to wind down
from NW-SE between now and 3-4 AM. The threat is finally over
across our NW tier of counties as tstms have transitioned into
stratiform rain.

Previous Discussion as of 1000 PM EDT...

Extending WW 393 in our western tier of counties until midnight
EDT. Have some showers re-firing to the NNW in association with
the cold front dropping across the region, and have pushed PoPs
back into the high end chance range into the early overnight
hours NW of RIC. Remainder of the forecast still looking in good
shape.

Previous forecast...

		As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Latest satellite showing plume of drier air lifting across the
mid- South into the Carolinas and lower mid-Atlantic. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed largely as
expected over the piedmont and points westward. Mid to high
debris clouds from last nights MCS/MCV still holding firm east
of I-95. Farther west has broken out with scattered CU field
popping up now, with MLCAPE responding and climbing into the
2-3k J/Kg. 18Z soundings just to our southwest showing mid-level
lapse rates into the 7-8 deg C/Km range over western Carolinas,
and into the 6.5-7.5 range over our SW third (I-85 corridor).
SVR Watch 393 in effect until 10PM. Would expect a second watch
would eventually follow for coastal counties in relatively short
order.

Enhanced Risk continues over our VA and NC counties but has been cut
back to slight with substantial clouds over the Delmarva.
Timing the storms for the remainder of the day into tonight should
bring thunderstorms to our piedmont counties now through 6pm, and
through the I-95 corridor between 6-9pm, and over the coast between
7 and midnight.

Given the steep lapse rates and -10 to -30 CAPE, still
suspecting large hail and frequent to continuous lightning will
be a threat over our area, but it's hard to miss inverted V look
to soundings (DCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) with strong damaging winds
as our primary threat. Finally, given flash flood guidance being
quite low over our urban areas and much of eastern VA, a Flood
Watch was issued for the I-64 corridor from RIC metro to Hampton
Roads including all of coastal/eastern VA.

Severe threat ends after 02-04z/10-12 am EDT, but storms could
linger into the overnight hours, especially over eastern sections.
Early morning lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

Upper trough will remain over the region on Tuesday, with a
broad area of low pressure extending south into the area. Expect
that this will result in additional scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Pops have been remain in 50-80% range, with the highest
chance across central VA/northern neck over to the MD Eastern
Shore. Expect the stalled front over the coastal plain will be
the focus but not really keying in on severe potential at this
time. Chances for heavy rain continue, but not expecting
widespread flooding issues with steering flow remaining high
enough to keep storms from stalling. However, urban/poor
draining flooding over Hampton Roads could remain an issue. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be in the middle to upper 80s.

Drier and sunnier conditions are expected on Wednesday as the
trough moves off the coast. Pops of around 20% continue for the
Eastern Shore for convection along the lingering boundary. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...

After a day or two to dry out a bit, weather starts to look a
bit more active heading into the holiday weekend. Ridging aloft
over the southern Plains and northern Mexico will try to expand
NE late this week into the weekend (but should remain SW of the
area) while another upper trough slowly tracks from the Canadian
prairies into the upper Great Lakes. The flow aloft will remain
W or NW through the weekend in between these two features.

Thursday and even much of Friday look to remain mainly dry,
though dew points steadily rise into the upper 60s to low 70s on
Friday and low-mid 70s for Saturday/Sunday. Given high
temperatures in the 80s to near 90F each day, this should result
in adequate instability/moisture for aftn/evening tstms. Slight
to low end PoPs in place for Friday, with higher chances over
the weekend. Embedded shortwaves in the developing NW flow
aloft should provide the necessary forcing for convection each
day Sat-Mon. Timing in this type of pattern is quite difficult
this far out, but will have chc PoPs each day (highest during
the aftn/evening as is typical this time of year). Will continue
to have slight chc-low chc PoPs on Monday for tstms as well.
Lows mainly in the 60s Fri AM, with upper 60s-lower 70s from
Sat-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Tuesday...

Widespread showers/tstms that are near the bay/coast will impact
PHF/ORF/ECG with reduced VSBYs and brief gusty winds between now
and 08-09z. After that, dry wx is expected through early aftn
before another round of scattered tstms occurs from mid aftn
through the evening. CIGs should remain mostly VFR through the
period outside of brief MVFR near the coast between 09-13z this
morning. Winds will remain SSW-SW through the period and may
gust to 20 kt during the day today.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue on Wed, as an upper
trough lingers over the area, with a chc of primarily
aftn/evening showers/tstms. Drier conditions return by Thursday
as the trough pushes offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 PM EDT Monday...

Anomalously strong low pressure (for late June) is over Michigan
this afternoon, with a cold front well to our west (over the
Appalachians). Winds are SSW at 10-15 kt, with 2-3 ft seas and
1-2 ft waves. Southerly winds increase to 15-20 kt on the
ocean/~15 kt on the bay/rivers/sound by this evening. Gusts of
20-25 kt are expected on the ocean (mainly N of Cape Charles),
with occasional 20 kt gusts expected on the bay/rivers this
aftn through the first part of tonight. Seas build to 3-4 ft
S/4-5 ft N by this evening. Waves on the Bay will build to 2-3
ft during this time. Even though it is marginal, will maintain
SCAs for the nrn two coastal zones from this evening thru early
Tues morning (mainly for seas). Waves/seas should remain below
advisory criteria elsewhere, and SCA gusts are not expected to
be frequent enough to warrant headlines. Winds diminish to
10-15 kt (but remain S-SSW) by Tuesday. Not sure how long the
4-5 ft seas persist across the nrn waters, so have ended the SCA
at 11z/7 AM Tue for now.

The bigger story for this evening-early tonight will be the
threat for strong to severe tstms over the waters. Still
expecting widespread tstms from late this aftn into late
evening. These storms may consolidate into a line as they
approach/track across the waters. The most likely timing for
strong to severe storms over the waters is from 22-04z/6 PM-
midnight. SMWs will be needed and gusts in excess of 50 kt are
possible. Winds diminish to 10-15 kt on Tue with scattered
aftn/evening tstms expected (a few SMWs may be needed). Sub-SCA
conditions (with lower tstm chances) are expected from Wed-Fri
as that weak cold front finally crosses the waters.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT early this morning for VAZ084-086-
     089-090-093-095>098-100-523>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...CP/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...ERI/JDM

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