Tornado and Hail in Oklahoma, June 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
244 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR WIND AND HAIL THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

* Synoptic Overview: Upper level high pressure remains in place
  across central Texas through tomorrow morning. This is leading to
  the main axis of the H500 ridge being just to the east of the
  Panhandles early this afternoon. The latest H500 RAP analysis
  shows a subtle shortwave trough currently located over eastern New
  Mexico. This shortwave is forecast to move northeast later today
  and the PVA associated with this wave should kick off
  thunderstorms this afternoon through this evening.

* Mesoscale: Based on 18z surface analysis, a surface trough is
  currently oriented across the far southern Texas Panhandle early
  this afternoon. With southwesterly winds across the southwestern
  Panhandles, drier air is moving across this area. Further east,
  lower 70s dew points are now moving in across the eastern TX
  Panhandle with the winds remaining out of the southeast. These
  higher dew points will continue to fill in further north and west
  this afternoon. These higher dew points should lead to MLCAPE
  values of around 3500-4000 across the northeast by early this
  evening. Effective shear around 50 kts is expected as a LLJ will
  slowly begin to form this evening into the overnight hours. Main
  concern will be capping across this area, with most model forecast
  soundings suggesting this will be in play. In any case, sufficient
  instability and shear will be across portions of the Panhandles
  (favoring the northeast) for at least a few strong to severe
  storms late this afternoon through this evening. Across the
  western TX Panhandle, instability and shear will not be as
  prevalent, but with enough lift, a few storms may still develop in
  this environment. The main concern will be damaging winds with
  DCAPE values around 1800-2000 J/kg.

* Threats: The primary hazards with the storms today will be
  damaging wind gusts (up to 75 mph) and large hail (up to 2 inches
  in diameter). For any storms that develop across the TX Panhandle,
  the main hazard would the damaging wind gusts, but cannot rule out
  some hail with these. The higher threat for both damaging winds
  and very large hail will be across the central and eastern
  Oklahoma Panhandle as storms move southeast out of Kansas.

* Timing & Location: Scattered thunderstorms may begin to develop
  across eastern NM and western TX by mid to late afternoon today.
  The more concerning storms may begin to develop across southeast
  CO/southwest KS around this same time. These storms will
  generally move east and should be out of the Panhandles by late
  this evening.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

For today's severe weather threat, refer to the Mesoscale
Update above.

Hot temperatures are expected today and tomorrow across the
Southern High Plains. Highs in the upper 90s to triple digits are
expected both this afternoon and tomorrow. Thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, favoring the northern Panhandles, and
there may even be a small chance again tomorrow afternoon in the
northwest.

So far today, surface temperatures are continuing to increase into
the low to mid 90s at the time of this writing. With areas in the
southwest mixing out, dew points are dropping in this area with
drier air moving in from the west and southwest. A shortwave will
crest the top of the ridge this afternoon into this evening and
sufficient moisture will be in place to generate thunderstorms. In
addition, the convective temperature may be reached for some
locations today and that could generate a couple more storms. With
the warm air mass in place over the Panhandles overnight,
temperatures will remain on the warm side and lows tomorrow
morning will only be in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

The main axis of the H500 ridge will slide off to the east
tomorrow. This will displace the warmer H850 temperatures a bit
further east, but the temperatures may still remain in the 32-34 C
range over the Panhandles. Another day of widespread highs in the
triple digits is expected across the area, except for the
northwest where highs in the upper 90s are currently forecast.
With the main axis of the ridge moving off to the east, another
ridge riding shortwave will move across portions of the Southern
Plains tomorrow afternoon. Some guidance suggests that any storms
that form from this wave may reach as far east as the northwestern
TX Panhandle and the western OK Panhandle. If any storms do make
it this far east, they likely will not be great rain producers as
surface moisture will be very low tomorrow (dew points in the low
to mid 40s). Strong downburst winds will be possible along with
some light rain accumulation. Another night of warm overnight lows
should be expected on Wednesday night due to the hot daytime
highs.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

A shift in the jet stream pattern takes place during the long term
forecast period. High pressure transitions over the central Gulf
Coast and an upper trough in the jet stream sets up over central New
Mexico. This will allow for a reduction in high temperatures and
multiple chances for thunderstorms in the coming days.

On Thursday, Highs across the CWA will be in the upper 90's and
perhaps a few triple digits in the southeast Texas Panhandle. Then
later on in the evening, thunderstorms could form along a surface
trough and enter into our area from New Mexico and Colorado. Mid
range model guidance still has some disparities in how far the
line of storms could travel southeast, so we have let the NBM give
the northwest Panhandles slight chance pops for Thursday evening
through the night.

Later on through the extended, each day has a chance for pops as
temperatures decrease from 90's to upper 80's. We have let the NBM
continue with it's coverage considering any slight upper level
pattern change could influence timing and location for
precipitation each day. Also, if long range models continue with
westerly flow during the weekend, the severity of thunderstorm
activity could become a topic of concern.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

VFR conditions are expected at the beginning of this TAF period.
Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across the west and
northern Panhandles. Highest chances at seeing a storm are at
KGUY, so have added a TEMPO group given this scenario. Gusty
sporadic winds are possible if a thunderstorm goes over a site.
Low level wind shear is forecast after 06z for a couple of hours
at KAMA and KGUY with winds at 2k ft agl up to 50 kts. Winds will
mainly be out of the southwest during this time period and could
have gusts up to 30 kts.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                74 101  72  97 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  68 101  71  98 /  60   0   0   0
Boise City OK              66  97  68  93 /  20  10  10   0
Borger TX                  74 105  74 100 /  20   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              71 103  71  98 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  73 101  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               74 103  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 66  98  66  94 /  20  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  69 100  69  96 /  30   0  10   0
Hereford TX                71 101  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                69 103  72  98 /  30   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   73 102  73  97 /  20   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                74 103  73  98 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              74 105  73 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
226 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-280830-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
226 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
through the evening in the northern half of the Texas Panhandle
and the entire Oklahoma Panhandle. Damaging winds and large to
very large hail will be possible, along with a low chance for a
tornado.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected today in Palo Duro
Canyon as well as portions of the Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Dangerously hot temperatures are expected Wednesday across the
combined Panhandles, and especially in Palo Duro Canyon.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from Thursday
through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
956 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Pampa             35.53N 100.93W
06/27/2023  M89 MPH          Gray               TX   Mesonet

            Peak wind gust due to heat burst from
            decaying thunderstorm.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1001 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     10 ESE Valley de Oro    35.42N 101.93W
06/27/2023  M65 MPH          Potter             TX   Mesonet

            A few severe wind gusts from heat burst
            resulted from decaying thunderstorm. First
            severe gust occurred at 3:44 AM CDT and the
            last occurred at 4:29 AM. Peak wind gusts
            ranged between 60 to 65 mph.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
237 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

OKZ001-272000-
Cimarron OK-
237 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Cimarron
County through 300 PM CDT...

At 236 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Black Mesa Park, or 20 miles west of Boise City, moving northeast at
50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Black Mesa Park, Kenton and Wheeless.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10230 3689 10224 3651 10300 3700 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 236DEG 44KT 3681 10287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LFM