A surface low was accompanied by a stalled frontal boundary that extended near and along the Interstate 30 corridor of Southwest Arkansas, Southeast Oklahoma, and far Northeast Texas. Aloft, a closed low was positioned across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with a trailing trough well south into northern and central Mexico.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
A surface low was accompanied by a stalled frontal boundary that extended near and along the Interstate 30 corridor of Southwest Arkansas, Southeast Oklahoma, and far Northeast Texas. Aloft, a closed low was positioned across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with a trailing trough well south into northern and central Mexico. This pattern allowed for plentiful Pacific moisture to combine with Gulf of Mexico moisture to produce widespread heavy rainfall across these areas along and north of the Interstate 30 corridor beginning on February 7th. By February 8th, the very slow-moving nature of this system then posed a growing threat of flash flooding, with much of this region experiencing widespread 2-4 inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts in excess of 6 inches. As a result, numerous reports of flash flooding reports were documented across parts of Southeast Oklahoma on February 8th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 5:37 AM CST, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 537 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 A Flood Watch is in effect until 9:00 PM for portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas, where an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall is possible through this evening in already thoroughly saturated regions. Ahead of the primary area of sustained precipitation across extreme southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, and southwestern Arkansas, more isolated precip has developed over deep east Texas and portions of northwest and north central Louisiana during the overnight hours. This activity will be fairly limited in coverage compared to the prolonged steady to heavy rainfall north and west, which will not truly make its eastward advancement until later in the day today. In advance of said eastward push driven by the surface low over southeast Oklahoma and attendant boundary to the west of the ArkLaTex, conditions continue to look favorable for the development of some strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours. In the warm sector, the 850 mb jet looks to kick in early, with decent SRH beneath. Clusters of convection early on look favorable- a pattern already exhibited by the nature of the overnight precip- followed by more linear structure as the low and front begin to push east. As of the overnight update, the SPC Severe Weather Outlook has been modified to expand the area of Slight Risk (Level 2/5) further west, now including the Shreveport metro, the Toledo Bend region, and areas east of the I-49 corridor, with Texarkana on the boundary of Slight and Moderate (Level 1/5). Probabilistic forecasts offer a 5% chance for hail and tornadoes, with a more confident 15% chance of severe winds. In addition to the severe risk, the slow-moving nature of this system continues to pose a threat of flash flooding, with much of the CWA included in a Marginal Risk in the WPC's Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Areas of poor drainage and saturated low-lying regions adjacent to swollen waterways which recently experienced flooding should be especially vigilant. Precipitation will begin to taper off from west to east, beginning in east Texas by or shortly after sundown, and exiting the area entirely near midnight, with quiet conditions persisting for the duration of Thursday, as skies steadily clear overnight and through the morning, with abundant sunshine in the afternoon. Today's highs and tonight's lows will, as is so often the case, depend on the forward speed of the cold front and the timing of the associated rainfall. The latest short range models project low to mid 60s north of I-30 and down into east Texas, with a sharp gradient into the middle and upper 70s east and ahead of the widespread precip. Behind the front, overnight lows will exhibit a similar gradient, with mid to upper 30s filtering in north and west, with low to middle 40s east. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 60s northwest to upper 60s southeast, with a few sites possibly reaching 70 degrees. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 403 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Large upper troughing will develop and dig S into the Srn Plains Thursday evening, on the heels of the ejecting upper low that will depart the region tonight into the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes area. This deepening trough will reinforce a strong cold front SE into the region around sunset Thursday, quickly progressing SE and exiting the area to the SE around daybreak Friday. The lack of any return Srly flow within the already dry air mass in place will preclude pops with the fropa attm, although post-frontal cigs will spread SE overnight and especially through the morning Friday. The pressure gradient will also tighten in wake of the front Friday, resulting in gusty NW winds over the area as the cigs continue to spill SE. This cold advection will allow for much below normal temps Friday, with minimal insolation during the morning resulting in milder temps across ECntrl LA before the cigs arrive. The trough is now progged to begin closing off Friday night as it digs into the Lower MS Valley, which will slow the erosion of the wrap-around cigs. Thus, min temps Saturday morning do not appear to fall quite as low as previously forecast, especially across much of N LA, where temps look to remain above freezing. Elsewhere, continued cold advection should allow for near to subfreezing temps, ahead of sfc ridging that will build S into the Ozarks and Srn Plains. This ridging will slide S into the region Saturday, and is now progged to be a bit slower to exit the area late this weekend, which should result in near to subfreezing temps areawide Sunday morning. Ridging aloft will quickly traverse E over the region in wake of the departed closed low, with subsidence beneath the ridge and ample insolation resulting in a return to near normal temps Sunday afternoon. The upper level pattern will begin to transition to WSW Sunday night with the departure of the ridge, ahead of the next bowling ball closed low that will drift ESE across Nrn Old MX from the Srn CA/Nrn Baja coasts. Elevated cigs will increase across the region Sunday afternoon and night, although low level moisture return will be delayed until Monday, at which point it should deepen sufficiently enough for scattered -SHRA development once ripples in the SW flow increase large scale ascent over the area. Thus, have delayed introduction of pops until Monday, with chance pops maintained for all but the Ern sections of the region. The ECMWF/Canadian have now become the more aggressive models in ejecting the closed low into far W TX Monday evening, although the slower and more negatively tilted solution of the GFS are in line with the increasing convection development of the ECMWF/Canadian such that organized convection should increase and begin affecting at least the Wrn sections of the area Monday night. Given these timing uncertainties, have not deviated much from the NBM, maintaining high chance pops Monday night before increasing pops to likely areawide Tuesday as the low ejects NE across the region. Attm, sfc instability looks to remain minimal despite the deepening sfc low that will develop over NCntrl TX, which will enhance deep lyr shear farther E over the region, although this shear and adequate lapse rates aloft should yield some embedded thunder over the area. The primary threat though will be locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, which should yield another 1-3+ inches of rain over already saturated grounds. Fortunately, it appears as if this will not be an extended threat as previously thought, but will need to bear watching closely as flooding could again be an issue over portions of the region. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 For the 08/12Z TAFs, CIGs vary widely from VFR south and east to MVFR and IFR west as showers and thunderstorms continue to advance into area airspace. CIGs will deteriorate as this activity becomes more widespread, with strong to severe storms possible this afternoon. Winds will accordingly become fairly gusty, at sustained speeds up to 20 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts and locally higher gusts possible in the vicinity of stronger storms. Direction will vary considerably as a closed low crosses southeast Oklahoma today, exhibiting a general trend of southeasterly becoming southerly becoming westerly. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 42 69 43 / 50 50 0 0 MLU 77 44 66 45 / 30 80 0 0 DEQ 65 35 63 37 / 90 40 0 10 TXK 68 40 66 40 / 80 50 0 0 ELD 74 41 65 41 / 50 90 0 0 TYR 62 39 68 40 / 90 10 0 0 GGG 69 39 68 41 / 70 20 0 0 LFK 75 40 69 43 / 80 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059-060. LA...None. OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>111. && SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...26
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1211 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>111-124-125-136-081200- Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-Titus- Camp-Morris-Wood-Upshur-Smith- 1211 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to increase through tonight across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas, along and just ahead of a cold front that will become stationary over the area by this evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible tonight, which may result in minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through much of Wednesday across Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, before gradually diminishing from west to east during the late afternoon and early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Wednesday, which may result in minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. Cooler and drier conditions will return to the region late tonight through the weekend, before showers increase once again Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed tonight for rainfall and flood reports. ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ112-126-137-138- 149>153-165>167-081200- Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier- Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson- Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Cass- Marion-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby- Angelina-San Augustine- 1211 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and North Louisiana Wednesday, along and ahead of an eastward advancing dryline and associated upper level storm system. Instability is expected to increase across these areas from late morning through the afternoon, with these storms expected to intensify as they progress east northeast across the area. Thus, the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms exists during the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes possible before the storms exit the region during the evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible, which may result in minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. Cooler and drier conditions will return to the region late tonight through the weekend, before showers increase once again Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed but may be necessary for Wednesday. 13
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:02 UTC.
2 flood, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dry Creek out of its banks with Mountain Fork River near bank full north of Watson. A couple of county roads near and north of Watson were flooded.
Flooding at the confluence of Lick Creek and Liksuklo Creek on Reed Road.
Numerous roads closed and vehicles abandoned due to flooding between Smithville and Watson, resulting in several motorists having to be rescued.
Numerous roads closed and several roads washed out with vehicles abandoned and swift water rescues needed across Northern McCurtain County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oklahoma in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Oklahoma, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1078788, 1078794, 1078804, 1078802.