A stalled front resulted in widespread showers and thunderstorms across northeast Arkansas during the late morning and early afternoon of February 8, 2023. Locally heavy rainfall in the Jonesboro area resulted in isolated flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A stalled front resulted in widespread showers and thunderstorms across northeast Arkansas during the late morning and early afternoon of February 8, 2023. Locally heavy rainfall in the Jonesboro area resulted in isolated flash flooding. Later in the day, the stalled front lifted north as a warm front. In the warm sector, south of the warm front and ahead of an approaching cold front, a cluster of thunderstorms developed across northeast Arkansas. This cluster produced a severe thunderstorm across Clay County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 11:22 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR Severe thunderstorm and flooding rain
potential... Issued at 1025 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023
Morning radar shows quite a bit more activity across the midsouth
as well as upstream in Arkansas and Mississippi. This upstream
activity is poised to move across the Midsouth over the next few
hours. As a result, instability has been minimized across the
region so far this morning. However, instability has always been
our greatest limiting factor for todays potential severe threat.
On the other hand shear looks as good or even better than it has
lading up to today. A weak warm front has shifted just north of
the I-40 corridor. Dew points are in the upper 50s to low 60s
across much of north Mississippi and east central Arkansas. CAMS
have been on top of this scenario ahead of the main cold front
poised to move across the region after sunset. Strengthening low
level winds and curved hodographs in the warm sector should be
supportive of rotating updrafts this afternoon into the evening
hours. Although instability will remain a limiting factor, forcing
ahead of the cold front will remain the focus for thunderstorm
development later this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has
expanded its Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms farther north
into Northwest Mississippi and east Arkansas with a Slight to
moderate Risk of severe storms across the remainder of the
Midsouth. Storms should eventually evolve into a line of strong to
severe storms later this evening with damaging wind as the
highest threat. However, strong tornadoes are possible, and more
likely this afternoon beginning around 4 pm. A secondary threat of
flooding is also a concern this evening into Thursday,
especially across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel
where PW's are in the 1.5 to 2.25 inch range. Rain totals between
1.5 and 2.25 inches are possible through 21z as far northeast as
Jonesboro, AR with 2-4 inches of rain since Midnight.
30/Sirmon
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023
A potent system will sweep through the region today and tonight with
numerous to widespread showers, scattered thunderstorms and gusty
winds. There is a risk of severe weather late this afternoon into
tonight mainly over east-central Arkansas and northwest Mississippi.
Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat. A few
tornadoes are possible. Flash flooding could also occur mainly over
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Thursday will be dry,
breezy and mild. A deep upper level system will push into the Mid-
South Friday with a chance of showers followed by a chilly
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023
Currently...A stalled front bisects the Mid-South from roughly
Clarksdale to Savannah. Temps range from the upper 40s north along
the KY/MO border to the upper 50s across NE MS. Rain has developed
north of the front across NE AR and the MO Bootheel as a 1014 mb low
pressure strengthens over the ARKLATEX.
A potent mid level trough will pivot and become negatively titled
across the Southern Plains this afternoon as surface low pressure
over the ARKLATEX deepens and moves into NW AR. Expect rain this
morning north of the front to continue with mainly dry conditions
south of I-40. This afternoon the stalled front will begin lifting
north. Expect additional shower and some thunderstorm development
invof the front as it lifts north. Low level moisture will continue
to advect into the region with mid 60s dewpoints reaching into the
Delta late this afternoon. Temps will be mild today with upper 60s
and lower 70s south of the front.
As the airmass destabilizes this afternoon and the lift associated
with the approaching upper trough overspreads the area we are
watching two things. First of all, convection will develop along the
approaching cold front as into moves into the Lower Mississippi
Valley late this afternoon into early this evening. Secondly, the
warm sector is relatively uncapped and scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the line associated with the cold
front. Most of the CAMs are showing this activity developing 00z-02z
across the Delta. Pre-storm model soundings in that area SW of
Memphis indicate an airmass that could produce a few tornadoes with
500-750 j/kg of MLCAPE, 0-1km helicity of 350 m2/s2 and 0-6km bulk
shear values around 55 kts.
The initial threat in the early evening will be the storms ahead the
line then attention will turn to the line along the advancing cold
front as that moves into east AR by mid evening. The tornado threat
will peak early in the evening across the Delta SW of Memphis with a
transition to more of a wind threat with the line as the low level
jet increases to over 70 kts by late evening. The line should be
weakening after midnight as the line pushes east across West TN and
north MS and instability wanes. The line will eventually push into
Middle TN and north AL around 3 am and the threat will end.
There are some caveats with this system. Buoyancy, though adequate,
is not great. Clouds and possibly more showers/thunderstorms during
the day than currently expected across the sight risk area could
hinder instability more than expected. Also, as this upper trough
becomes negatively tilted it will create so much forcing that
convection is almost too widespread and becomes disorganized,
limiting the severe threat. In addition, updraft helicity values
(proxy for rotating updrafts) across the CWA are not jumping off
the page so far.
The flood watch for NE AR and the MO Bootheel will continue through
tonight. This area will remain resident in the best area of lift and
moisture for the longest period of time with 2-3 inches of rain
expected. A wind advisory will be issued for the entire Mid-South
tonight through noon Thursday.
Thursday will be dry, breezy and mild in the wake of the departing
system. Winds will be diminishing as the pressure gradient slackens
in the afternoon. The upper low dropping south from the northern
plains on Friday will cut off and slowly push across the area
through Saturday. Models have trended deeper and wetter with this
system and we have coordinated with surrounding offices to add more
POPs since the NBM is not catching on quickly enough. Some
snowflakes with this kind of system are not out of the question so
we will be monitoring that. Much cooler air will push into the
region with this upper low and highs will only be in the 40s
Saturday. High pressure settles over the region with lows in the 20s
Sunday morning followed by sun and highs in the lower 50s by
afternoon.
High pressure will slide east and milder conditions will return
early next week. Another potent system is on the radar for Tuesday
with more showers and thunderstorms possible.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023
Showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across the area as a
warm front is draped along the I-40 corridor. Variable conditions
from MVFR to LIFR. Thunderstorms are expected to pick up in
activity this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.
Cigs and vsbys will remain low through most the TAF period. Wind
is ESE 8-12kts. Wind will veer SSW and elevate 15-20kts with gusts
to 30-35kts possible. At the end of the MEM TAF cigs and vsbys
will improve to VFR.
SMW
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ009-018.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for
ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ113-115.
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for
MOZ113-115.
MS...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for
MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for
TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SMWThe Memphis radar (KNQA), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:56 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several roads throughout Jonesboro were flooded and impassable. A subdivision behind the Dollar General on Highway 1 South was flooded with several homes suffering significant water damage.
Several power poles were knocked down on both sides of Highway 67 just west of Corning. A portable storage building was also blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082396, 1082397, 1082398.