A frontal boundary stalled stalled over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri the morning of the 8th, which allowed showers and storms to continue over southern Missouri as moisture overrode the stalled front. |For the 72-hour period ending at 6 AM on the 9th, widespread rainfall accumulations over three inches occurred along and south of Interstate 44, and led to flooding of low water…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A frontal boundary stalled stalled over northern Arkansas and southern Missouri the morning of the 8th, which allowed showers and storms to continue over southern Missouri as moisture overrode the stalled front. Storms finally ended during the early morning of the 9th as the upper level trough moved across the region.|For the 72-hour period ending at 6 AM on the 9th, widespread rainfall accumulations over three inches occurred along and south of Interstate 44, and led to flooding of low water crossings as well as rises to flood stage along the Big Piney, Roubidoux and Current Rivers.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 8, 5:47 AM CST, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 547 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Key Messages: 1. Rain chances through Tonight. Heavy rain potential with some flooding. A flood watch is in effect along and south of the I44 corridor through tonight. 2. Second system Thu night/Friday morning with a rain/snow mix. Some minor snow accumulation possible on grassy surfaces. 3. Dry weekend, but active again during the early part of next week. .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Rain is ongoing this morning along and south of I-44, where the current flood watch is in place. Ongoing moisture advection on the nose of a strong low level jet will continue through today and tonight as an upper level low makes its way across the plains towards the Ozarks today. Precipitable water values greater than 1.0" will continue to spread into the region today, which, as noted in the previous forecast discussion, is over the 90th percentile for this time of year. This anomalous amount of moisture will bring the potential for flooding to areas generally along and south of I-44 today and tonight. Current expectations are for 1 to 2.5" of additional rainfall through early Thursday morning, on top of the 0.25 to 0.75" of rain that has already fallen. The combination of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall with wet soils and no vegetation will be conducive for flooding on creeks and streams impacting low water roads and crossing. Surface low pressure will lift into the Ozarks this afternoon into the evening as the upper level low takes on a slightly negative tilt. This will allow for some increased instability with good deep layer omega noted moving over the region this afternoon and this evening, thanks to the low level jet and upper level divergence from a coupled 250mb jet. This will allow for the potential for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Though the severe threat is rather marginal and mainly focused across southcentral Missouri mainly from Ava to Salem and eastward. Most storms should only be strong with small hail but an isolated severe storm with hail to quarters in size may be possible. As the low lifts to the north of the Ozarks tonight into Thursday morning, winds become quite gusty with some wind gusts over 40 mph. Did not go with an advisory as sustained winds and gusts were below thresholds, but will need be monitored as the system moves through today. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 248 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 Colder air will move into the area in the wake of the retreating the surface low during the day Thursday into Friday. Another upper wave will also move into the area Thursday night into Friday which should bring a chance of rain/snow to the area. Some minor snow accumulations may occur on grassy surfaces, but surface temperatures will likely be too warm for much if any impact. Friday's highs will be chilly in the mid 30s to low 40s as the upper trough moves through. A warming trend will occur during the weekend along with dry weather thanks to high pressure and an upper level ridge that moves over the region. Looking at the beginning to middle of next week, the area may experience deja vue as a rather similar upper level pattern is forecast by the models to this week. An upper level low will dig into the southwestern CONUS Monday and begin to lift north and east across the plains before the middle of next week. The storm system will then take a similar path as it lifts northeast across the center of the county brining additional rainfall to the Ozarks. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 540 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 A storm system will impact the region weather over the next 24 to 36 hours. Low ceilings and impacts to visibilities from rainfall will cause flight conditions to bee MVFR to IFR today and overnight tonight.Overnight, surface winds will increase and shift out of the west to southwest with gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Flight conditions are expected to remain MVFR to IFR during the day Thursday as well though rainfall bill tapper off by morning. Additional flight impacts are then forecast for Thursday night into Friday as another system moves across the region. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ082-083-090>098-101>106. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Hatch LONG TERM...Hatch AVIATION...Hatch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 609 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-091215- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 609 AM CST Wed Feb 8 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited lightning risk. Elevated excessive rainfall risk Limited non thunderstorm wind risk. DISCUSSION... Rain and will continue to move across the area on today into tonight with the heavy rain risk increasing through the late morning into the evening. Scattered storms will also occur across portions of southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. Small hail will be possible with a few of the storms. The highest rainfall totals will occur along and south of the I44 corridor, where one and one half inches to three inches of rain are likely. Given the better runoff potential during the Winter months and recent winter precipitation, there will be a chance of flooding, especially of rivers, creeks and streams along with low water crossings. As a low pressure system moves out of the area, winds will increase tonight into Thursday morning where gusts over 40 mph will be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Light rain mixed with snow may occur Thursday night into Friday morning. Little accumulations are expected and then only on grassy or elevated surfaces. Additional rainfall is again possible Tuesday into the middle of next week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Hatch
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
11 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway AB was closed at Wolf Creek due to flooding.
Highway Y at Cowskin Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway FF at Hunter Creek was flooded and impassable.
Highway C at the Flat Creek low water crossing due to flooding.
Highway 142 at Bennetts River was flooded and impassable.
Highway H was closed at the North Fork River low water crossing due to flooding.
Highway 181 was closed at the Bryant Creek low water crossing due to flooding.
Highway Z at the Elk Creek low water crossing was flooded.
Highway BB at the Big Piney River low water crossing was flooded and impassable.
Highway 95 at the Bryant Creek low water Crossing was flooded and impassable.
Highway U at the Bryant Creek low water crossing was flooded and impassable.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1081037, 1081038, 1081039, 1081040, 1081041, 1081042, 1081043, 1081044, 1081045, 1081046, 1081047.