Strong to damaging wind gusts developed from the northwest across the North Carolina mountains in the wake of a cold front. The main impact was across Avery County, where scattered to numerous trees were blown down and isolated power outages were reported.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Strong to damaging wind gusts developed from the northwest across the North Carolina mountains in the wake of a cold front. The main impact was across Avery County, where scattered to numerous trees were blown down and isolated power outages were reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 10:33 PM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1033 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front will linger across our region
Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure organizes over Texas. This
storm system moves east northeast from Texas Wednesday then reaches
our area on Friday bringing the potential for severe weather. The
low pressure and associated strong cold front moves over the
Atlantic on Saturday with cool and dry high pressure in control of
our weather through the start of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 10pm EST Monday: Showers have exited the region and the
forecast has been cleared of precipitation through Tuesday. Front
behind these showers has already exited the area as well, or will
shortly. Wind gusts to 30mph continue in all Piedmont areas, with
gustiness expected to continue, though gradually weaken, overnight;
due to strong surface low that is moving off to the north. Over the
higher elevations (which include the Wind headlines), winds are
expected to peak around 1am. IR satellite imagery shows mid to high
level clouds have cleared, but some isolated pockets of fog persist.
Any areas of fog should dissipate over the next few hours due to the
mixing effects of the moderate to strong winds.
Strong 850 mb CAA across the mountains tonight, with flow veering to
westerly and possibly reaching 60 kt. A cross-section over Avery
County shows a mountain wave signature, where some of that flow may
reach the surface in lower elevations. A few trees and power lines
may be knocked down in these areas tonight, before winds start to
weaken early Tuesday morning. So a High Wind Warning was issued for
the Northern Mountains and an Advisory for the adjacent escarpment
zones from 00z to 14z Tuesday. Winds will weaken elsewhere, but
should remain high enough to preclude any fog development. Lows will
be around 15 to 20 deg above normal.
Tuesday, conditions will quiet down, as dry deep-layer zonal flow
sets up atop the region. The day will start out warm, and with a
downslope flow and sunny skies, temps will rebound to near daily
records east of the mountains (see Climate section below). Highs
ranging from 10-15 deg above normal in the mountains to 15-20 deg
above normal east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Monday: Quasi-zonal flow aloft with a broad
surface high will settle over the East Coast Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Surface high will gradually shift offshore
during the daytime period Wednesday as the flow aloft picks up
a west-southwesterly component and a southwesterly return flow
from the Gulf at the surface. An approaching frontal system will
push in from the west Wednesday night into Thursday as insentropic
lift develops out ahead of the system. PoPs will quickly ramp up
Wednesday evening/night as the surface low shifts from the Great
Lakes region into the northeastern CONUS and slides a frontal
boundary into the CFWA under good upper divergence support. Model
guidance depict this frontal boundary somewhat stalling over the
CFWA through the end of the period. In this case, a low-end hydro
threat may be in store as PoPs remain elevated to categorical/likely
ranges under high PWAT values (1.00"-1.50+") through 00Z Friday.
Operational models and GEFS plumes even place a couple hundred J/kg
of SBCAPE across portions of the CFWA Thursday afternoon/evening, so
a low-end severe threat could be in store if this trend continues,
but guidance also depicts a lull in precip during this time, so this
development is wishy-washy. Temperatures will continue to run well-
above normal as values will be 15-20 degrees above normal for much
of the short-term.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM EST Monday: A lull in precip may occur Thursday
afternoon/evening as the quasi-stationary boundary undergoes
warm frontal activation over the Southeast, ahead of a strong
surface low riding along the boundary over the Ark-La-Tex region
as it quickly strengthens through cyclogenesis. As the warm front
lifts northward through the CFWA, better QPF response and PoPs will
return to likely/categorical values by Thursday night. As the parent
low lifts into the Midwest Thursday night into Friday, a strong cold
front will encroach the region. This front will be strongly forced
as a negatively tilted upper trough swings from the Four Corners
region Thursday into the the heart of the country by Friday with
great upper divergence settling over the Southeast on the leeside of
the upper trough. With the CFWA strictly under a warm sector regime
and the latest GEFS plumes placing 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE in
locations outside of the mountains to go along with great deep layer
shear and SRH values, expect the potential for a severe threat to be
in the works. This setup would support the development of a squall
line along this boundary, while mini-supercells should form out ahead
of the front. In this case, all three severe hazards will be
possible with damaging straight-line winds and a few embedded
tornadoes being the main focus. The severe threat should end by
Friday night, but with the fropa occurring during peak heating
Friday and environmental parameters appearing in model guidance with
values we haven't seen in a while is a cause for concern, even with
the event being 4-5 days out. We urge everyone to continue
monitoring the forecast leading up to Thursday and Friday as it will
change between now and then, but the run-to-run consensus between
all operational models and ensembles makes it hard to believe that
there won't be at least a low-end severe threat across the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. A low-end hydro threat will be
possible as well on Friday, but is definitely the secondary threat,
especially when considering the forward progression of this system.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the work week.
The cold front will quickly shift offshore by the start of the
upcoming weekend. Expect stout dry air entrainment behind the front
as a broad surface high gradually pushes in from the west. High
pressure will remain in control through the end of the forecast
period as the flow aloft becomes more quasi-zonal. Temperatures
will return to near-normal values, but may end up a few ticks
above as height falls don't appear to be very substantial.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Currently, a line of showers ahead of a cold
front is moving west to east across the region. These showers are
very shallow and have been devoid of lightning. However, they have
been down-mixing some strong wind gusts at times, and TAFs generally
have a tempo for strong wind gusts to 35kts as a result. Theses
showers will be east of the area by 4Z. Visibility and ceilings
will only dip below MVFR levels during passage of strongest part of
the line, if at all. Front is associated with a strong surface low
that passes by to the north with a strong pressure gradient
continuing over the region until Tuesday afternoon. Winds veer 30
degrees following passage of showers/front. Gusts weaken overnight
to the 15 to 25kt range and don't drop below mention levels until
around 18Z on Tuesday.
Outlook: Dry high pressure remains over the region on Tuesday,
and VFR conditions are expected through Wednesday. Another front
will approach from the west late in the week, bringing increasing
clouds and rain chances starting Thursday. The front is expected
to cross the area Friday, and may bring strong storms.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 02-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 77 1918 26 1941 58 1948 13 1935
1896 1934
1906
KCLT 78 2011 29 1934 61 1890 14 2002
1962
1948
KGSP 77 1961 35 1934 59 1997 16 2002
RECORDS FOR 03-01
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 2006 31 1920 55 1997 10 1914
KCLT 82 1918 36 1980 60 2017 15 1980
1969
1927
KGSP 80 1918 30 1934 60 2012 19 1906
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...High Wind Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-049-050.
Wind Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ501-503-505.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/WJM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...WJM
CLIMATE...Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 952 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-048-051>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-502-504-506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-010300- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell- Davie-Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham- Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson- Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville- Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg- 952 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A low pressure system expected to move by to our northwest on Friday should push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and then continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ033-049-050-010300- Avery-Yancey-Mitchell- 952 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. High Wind Warning. In addition, a low pressure system expected to move by to our northwest on Friday should push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and then continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. NCZ501-503-505-010300- Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains- 952 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for mountain portions of Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties in western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A low pressure system expected to move by to our northwest on Friday should push a strong cold front across our region, most likely in the afternoon. In advance of the front, heavy rain showers may start to build over or near the region as early as Wednesday night and then continue at times through Friday. Current expectations are that enough instability and wind shear will be available by Friday to raise the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, with all forms of severe weather possible. However, details remain uncertain regarding the timing and location of the more significant threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. HG
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
552 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
NCZ033-048>050-053-272330-
Buncombe NC-Yancey NC-Avery NC-Madison NC-Mitchell NC-
552 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact portions
of Madison, Mitchell, Avery, northern Buncombe and Yancey Counties
through 630 PM EST...
At 552 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking shower and thunderstorms
along a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Erwin to 15 miles
west of Marshall. Movement was east at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Spruce Pine, Burnsville, Marshall, Newland, Woodfin, Weaverville,
Mars Hill, Banner Elk, Hot Springs and Elk Park.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3621 8190 3607 8174 3573 8233 3555 8277
3562 8281 3564 8287 3574 8292 3575 8296
3594 8290 3593 8281 3600 8278 3606 8264
3603 8259 3597 8261 3595 8256 3611 8237
3616 8222 3610 8208 3612 8203 3629 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 288DEG 46KT 3622 8237 3576 8295
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
555 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-272345-
Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Southern Jackson NC-
Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
555 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact portions
of Macon, Jackson, Swain, Graham and Haywood Counties through 645 PM
EST...
At 554 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles east of Gatlinburg to 7 miles
northwest of Bryson City to 8 miles west of Andrews. Movement was
east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Sylva, Waynesville, Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee,
Canton, Cullowhee, Lake Junaluska and Clyde.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3541 8402 3552 8388 3556 8377 3556 8350
3566 8335 3566 8330 3573 8324 3579 8308
3579 8296 3564 8287 3562 8281 3557 8277
3539 8278 3500 8346 3504 8356 3515 8365
3515 8374 3526 8371 3522 8396 3531 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 285DEG 32KT 3573 8325 3547 8358 3524 8396
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
739 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW SANTEETLAH 35.35N 83.90W
02/27/2023 GRAHAM NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
TREES DOWN ALONG SANTEETLAH RD.
&&
HGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM TSTM WND DMG ROBBINSVILLE 35.32N 83.81W
02/27/2023 GRAHAM NC COUNTY OFFICIAL
TREES DOWN ALONG SNOWBIRD RD.
&&
HGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
813 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
NCZ036-056-068-069-280145-
Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
813 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
...Showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact
portions of Catawba, Lincoln, southern Iredell and northern
Cleveland Counties through 845 PM EST...
At 812 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking showers and isolated
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles north of Shelby
to 5 miles northwest of Lincolnton to 13 miles north of Gastonia.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Newton, Lincolnton, Hickory, Mooresville, Conover, Maiden, Westport,
Claremont, Catawba and Casar.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3551 8091 3549 8095 3545 8094 3543 8096
3541 8096 3540 8097 3541 8122 3549 8139
3550 8168 3557 8158 3556 8157 3557 8154
3563 8148 3574 8131 3570 8084 3567 8077
3552 8074 3551 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 245DEG 35KT 3554 8152 3553 8132 3543 8111
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported scattered to numerous trees were blown down and isolated power outages.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1083614.