An area of low pressure tracked up the East Coast and intensified in the process as it brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across eastern New York on December 18, 2023. Rainfall totals were between 2 and 5 inches with the highest amounts across the eastern Catskills.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ALY wrote it up.
An area of low pressure tracked up the East Coast and intensified in the process as it brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across eastern New York on December 18, 2023. Rainfall totals were between 2 and 5 inches with the highest amounts across the eastern Catskills. This rain led to both areal and river flooding across the region. Some rivers didn't recede until December 22.
States of Emergency were issued for the Town of Johnsburg and Warren County. Several area schools had an early dismissal on December 18 or delays on December 19 due to the flooding.
A 76-year-old woman died after their vehicle was swept off Cauterskill Road due to flood waters from Catskill Creek after driving around a traffic barrier blocking the road.
Gusty winds accompanied this event with gusts between 35 and 50 mph. This resulted in some localized power outages due to downed trees and wires.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 12:59 AM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1259 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A potent storm will affect the region overnight through much of
the day on Monday with moderate to heavy rainfall and locally
strong winds. In the wake of the storm, an upper-level low will
bring colder but seasonable temperatures for the rest of the
workweek. Lingering rain or snow showers on Tuesday will give
way to dry weather by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A storm system will bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall
and locally strong winds this evening through Monday
**A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of western New
England and the Taconics from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Monday**
**A Flood Watch is in effect for all of eastern New York and
western New England from 7 PM today through 5 AM Tuesday**
.UPDATE...As of 1225 AM EST, our surface low continues to
strengthen and is currently located just to the east of
Wilmington, NC per latest satellite and RAP13 MSLP analysis.
Estimated surface pressure of this low is down to 987mb. Rain
has expanded across the entire region and some pockets of
steadier rainfall is beginning. Rates have increased to around
0.50 of an inch per 3 hours in the eastern Catskills (per NYS
Mesonet observations) with lower rates elsewhere. Rainfall
totals have exceeded 1 inch already across portions of the
eastern Catskills and Adirondacks per observations and MRMS data
due to upslope/enhanced flow. Steadier and heavier rain
currently located to the south across the mid- Atlantic will
continue to lift northward and widespread moderate to heavy rain
is expected to reach the area by daybreak. Will be monitoring
for possible hydro issues (areal and/or river flooding) to begin
around that time or shortly after. Surface temperatures are
running a bit lower than expected, so adjusted temps with this
update. This may be a contributing factor to how light winds
generally are across the area. In fact, some valley areas have a
northerly wind, which is acting to keep the boundary layer more
stable. This increases some uncertainty on how well winds later
tonight will be able to mix down. Still expect some strong
gusts across the Taconics into western New England overnight
into early Monday, though gusts to 50 mph may be more localized
than previously thought unless the strength of the stable layer
eases a bit.
Previous Discussion:
A southern stream upper shortwave and associated surface low
will rapidly track northward along the East Coast and up the
Hudson Valley into eastern Canada over the next 24-36 hours.
Meanwhile, a northern stream shortwave over the Canadian Prairie
Provinces will swing southeastward about the base of a broad
upper trough and dig down over the Great Lakes. As these systems
come into a favorable alignment with the large-scale trough
becoming negatively tilted over the Ohio Valley, the surface low
will rapidly deepen as it approaches the region.
A strong low-level jet on the eastern flank of the low, some
80-100 kt at 850 mb or +5 to +6 sigma above climatology per
NAEFS, will bring very unseasonably moist air northward toward
the region. PW in this airmass is expected to be above 1" or +3
to +4 sigma, or using an alternate metric, IVT of +6 to +8 sigma
is expected to impinge on the region from the southeast, which
combined with the southeasterly low-level jet and diffluent
flow aloft ahead of the upper shortwave, will result in
widespread moderate to heavy precipitation across the entire
forecast area. Steady rain will overspread the area from south
to north this evening, continuing overnight and through much of
Monday morning. Portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley and
southwestern New England may briefly be within the warm sector
of the cyclone, where model soundings suggest a few hundred J/kg
of MUCAPE may result in occasional rumbles of thunder within
convective elements late Monday morning through early Monday
afternoon.
Rainfall totals across the region may reach 2-4", a slight
increase from previous forecasts, with locally higher amounts
possibly in excess of 5" along areas of terrain with southern
to eastern exposure, particularly the eastern Catskills and also
including Litchfield Hills, Berkshires, southern Greens, and
southeastern Adirondacks. Areas to the northwest of these
terrain features, including the Mohawk and Schoharie Valleys
and Washington County, may see shadowing and slight reductions
in rain totals, however the large-scale support for lift will be
robust enough that totals in excess of 2" may still fall. These
rainfall accumulations, combined with some snowmelt across
higher elevations, is expected to result in some minor flooding
in urban, low-lying, and flood-prone areas. Minor to moderate
river flooding is also forecast across many area rivers and
creeks, with a Flood Watch remaining in effect for the entire
region. See the Hydro discussion below for additional details.
As the rapidly deepening low approaches the forecast area and
tracks nearly overhead, the surface pressure may fall as low as
975-985 mb per the latest numerical guidance, a -3 to -4 sigma
event. The southeasterly LLJ on the eastern flank of the low and
the tightening pressure gradient at the surface will result in
gusty southeast winds of 25-40 mph across the region from early
Monday morning into Monday afternoon, with downslope enhancement
resulting in gusts possibly approaching 50 mph on the western
slopes of the southern Greens, Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, and
Taconics. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for these areas
tonight through Monday mid-afternoon.
Temperatures will slowly rise tonight and will be rather mild
for mid-December standards on Monday with highs in the upper
40s to upper 50s. A few locations could reach 60. Record highs
will be challenged at Albany, Glens Falls and Poughkeepsie on
Monday; see climate section for details.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As the surface low departs to the north Monday afternoon to
evening, precipitation coverage will diminish, but showers may
persist, particularly outside the Hudson Valley. As the parent
upper trough moves overhead, a gusty west-northwest cold
advective regime will develop while a period of reinvigorated
light showers of snow or rain/snow mix in valley areas is
affects the region from west to east through Tuesday afternoon.
As the narrow trough exits eastward, precipitation will end and
winds will diminish by Tuesday night.
Temperatures will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s Tuesday
night, but only warm back to the upper 20s to mid 30s in high
terrain and upper 30s to low 40s at lower elevations on
Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures return Tuesday night as lows
fall into the mid 10s to mid 20s under the influence of a broad
region of surface high pressure and clearing skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the Piedmont Region and the Ohio
Valley for an extended period of fair and dry weather. Temps
will be seasonably cold for the last full day of astronomical
fall with upper 30s to lower 40s in the lower elevations and
upper 20s to mid 30s over the higher terrain. A chilly night is
expected Wed night, as a cold front with little low-level
moisture moves through with a strong anticyclone building in
from near James Bay. Lows will be in the 20s with some teens
over the mtns.
Thursday through Friday will continue to be cold and dry, as
the anticyclone over central-northern Quebec ridges in. The
latest GFS has it strengthen to 1050 hPa by 00Z/FRI. Max temps
should be similar to Wed for the opening of astronomical Winter
early THU evening. The Winter Solstice begins on THU at 1027 pm
EST. Mid and upper level ridging remains over NY and New England
on Friday, as the sfc anticyclone slides east over the Ungava
Bay towards the Labrador Sea. Temps will be a shade colder than
the previous few days with lows in the teens and 20s and highs
mainly in the mid 20s to mid 30s.
Ridging may hold the weekend before Christmas based on the
medium range guidance and ensembles. A weak disturbance near the
Midwest may allow for clouds to increase by Saturday with a few
snow/rain showers west of the Hudson River Valley. The 2nd half
of the weekend may feature a sfc high settling back in over NY
and New England with fair weather Christmas Eve with seasonable
temps.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Potent storm system will continue to move up the East Coast
passing over our region during the day Monday bringing widespread
rainfall to the local area through much of the afternoon. Widespread
IFR conditions will occur across the area with the heaviest
rainfall expected across the local from 10-14Z/Monday with it
becoming showery during the afternoon as the low and its
occluded front move through. An improvement to MVFR is not
expected until late afternoon at KPOU and in the evening at
KALB, KGFL And KPSF.
North to east winds overnight becoming southeast to south
Monday morning and strengthening and becoming gusty. Winds will
shift to the west in the afternoon and be brisk and gusty with
the passage of the low and its occluded front. Winds will
weaken during the evening and will shift to the southwest.
Low level wind shear at all TAF sites as strong low level jet
moves across the region overnight and Monday morning.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch has been issued for all of eastern New York and
western New England from this evening through late Monday
night.
A storm system will bring widespread moderate to heavy rainfall
and locally strong winds later today through Monday. Rainfall
totals between 2 and 4 inches are expected with some locally
higher amounts in excess of 5 inches across the eastern
Catskills, Adirondacks, southern Greens, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills. Some snow melt in the mountains may contribute
to runoff as well. Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC)
forecasts now include minor to moderate flooding on many area
main stem rivers in eastern New York and western New England
including the Hoosic, Housatonic, Hudson, Mohawk, Sacandaga,
Schroon and Walloomsac and the Esopus, Rondout, Schoharie and
Wappingers creeks. NERFC forecasts indicate river crests may
occur as early as Monday afternoon along quick-responding
basins, with other slower-responding reaches cresting later
Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Flooding of urban, poor
drainage and low lying areas will also be possible.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Current Record High Temperatures for Dec 18:
Albany: 60F (1921)
Glens Falls: 54F (1928)
Poughkeepsie: 55F (1954)
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through late tonight for CTZ001-013.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ032-033-038>043-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ054-061-066.
MA...Flood Watch through late tonight for MAZ001-025.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ001-025.
VT...Flood Watch through late tonight for VTZ013>015.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for VTZ013.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard/JPV/Rathbun/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...Picard/Rathbun
CLIMATE...RathbunHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albany NY 419 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ054-061-066-VTZ013-181200- Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Eastern Rensselaer-Eastern Columbia- Eastern Dutchess-Bennington- 419 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, east central New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. Wind Advisory. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts, flooding and wind damage to the National Weather Service in Albany New York. NYZ032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063>065-082>084-VTZ014-015-181200- Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton- Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington- Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga- Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Western Greene- Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster- Western Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren- Southern Washington-Western Windham-Eastern Windham- 419 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central New York, eastern New York and southern Vermont. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Flood Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts and flooding to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
83 flood, 5 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The combination of gusty winds and soft ground surfaces resulted in some power outages.
The combination of gusty winds and soft ground surfaces resulted in some power outages.
The combination of gusty winds and soft ground surfaces resulted in some power outages.
The combination of gusty winds and soft ground surfaces resulted in some power outages.
The combination of gusty winds and soft ground surfaces resulted in some power outages.
Route 385 between Lawrence Avenue and Whitbeck Street in Coxsackie was closed due to flooding.
The Schoharie Creek at Prattsville rose above flood stage during the morning hours on December 18, reaching moderate flood stage during the late morning hours before falling below flood stage by the afternoon hours. This resulted in water overflowing onto State Route 23 and flooding of basements and lowlands.
Flooding in low lying areas was reported along the West Canada Creek as it rose above flood stage.
The Sacandaga River at Hope rose above flood stage early in the morning on December 18 peaking at moderate flood stage during the midday hours. The river fell below flood stage during the morning hours on December 19. Flooding was observed along NY Route 30 near Hope.
Route 9W in Glenerie was reported flooded.
Water was reported over portions of Route 55.
Route 9W had partial lane closures between Highland and the Ulster/Orange County line due to flooding.
Residents at the Weyant Green Apartments were evacuated due to severe flooding.
Portions of John Joy Road were closed due to flooding.
Central Avenue was closed for a time at the Albany City line toward Colonie due to flooding.
Dock Street from the old bridge to Abell Street was closed due to flooding.
East Strand Street from Broadway to Gill Street was closed due to flooding.
Delaware Avenue at North Street was closed due to flooding.
Loundsbury Place from Mountainview Avenue and Fairmont Avenue was closed due to flooding.
South Wall Street from Route 213 to Winchell Avenue was closed due to flooding.
Brook Street from Lebert Street to South Wall Street was closed due to flooding.
Emerson Street was closed due to flooding.
First Avenue from Kingston Street to Sojourner Truth State Park was closed due to flooding.
First Avenue from Hooker Street to the city line was closed due to flooding.
Water was reported over Horsenden Road near New Paltz.
The Esopus Creek rose over its banks leading to flooding around the Saugerties Village Beach, the properties of the Saugerties Steamboat Company as well as the yards of other properties along the creek.
Route 213 was reported closed two miles east of the Town of Olive.
State Route 5s near the west end of Sandy Lane Road was flooded.
Minor flooding was observed at the intersection of State Route 170 and 170A.
Route 8 is closed in both directions between Johnsburg and the Hamilton/Warren County line due to flooding.
Route 8 was reported closed due to flooding just past Palisades Road before getting to Brant Lake.
Flooding was observed along Coons Road near Middleburgh.
Portions of the Marbletown Town Park were inundated with water due to runoff from heavy rainfall.
Rising waters on the Catskill Creek flooded portions of Route 23B and Cauterskill Road near Leeds. A 76-year-old woman died after their vehicle was swept off Cauterskill Road due to flood waters after driving around a traffic barrier blocking the road.
Spook Rock Road outside of Hudson was closed due to flooding.
Flooding of basements and businesses were reported in Hudson.
Route 8 is closed in both directions at the Hamilton/Warren County line to the intersection of Route 8 and Route 30 in Wells due to flooding.
Route 143 was closed between Marshall Road and Jarvis Road in Coeymans.
Numerous town and county roads were closed in the Town of Esopus.
Portions of Ulsterville Road was closed from Schawagunk to Crawford.
The Hudson River flooded at the times of high tide which resulted in some minor flooding near Waryas Park including the patio at the former Ice House restaurant.
Flooding was reported along US Route 9W southbound north of Route 299 in the Town of Lloyd.
The Schoharie Creek at Gilboa Bridge rose above flood stage during the morning hours on December 18 and rose to moderate flood stage later in the morning into the evening hours. The river fell below flood stage in the early morning hours on December 19.
Western Avenue flooded in front of Stuyvesant Plaza in Guilderland.
Portions of Ridge Road in East Greenbush were closed due to flooding.
Portions of Michael Road in East Greenbush were closed due to flooding.
South Pearl Street at Old South Pearl Street was closed due to flooding.
Hackett Boulevard at St. James Place was closed due to flooding.
Erie Boulevard at North Ferry Street was closed due to flooding.
County Route 2 was closed near Lexington due to flooding.
Numerous county and town roads were closed in the Town of Woodstock.
Route 9J was closed between Gibbons Road and the Town of Schodack due to flooding.
County Route 74 was closed in the Town of Athens due to flooding.
State Route 9G was closed in the Town of Clermont.
Route 9G between Power Avenue and Mt Merino Road was closed due to flooding.
Flooding of the Roundout Creek near Rosendale resulted in Route 213 to be closed from Mountain Road to Creek Locks Road. County Route 25 was also closed due to flooding as well as portions of the A.J. Snyder Field off Route 213.
Towpath Road in Kingsbury was closed due to flooding.
McGowan Road in Easton was closed due to flooding.
Baldwin Corners Road in the Town of Hartford was closed due to flooding.
Cross Road in Hebron was closed due to flooding.
Cross Road in Hebron was closed due to flooding.
Schroon River Road (County Route 10) in Warrensburg was closed due to flooding.
Route 5s in Fultonville had all lanes blocked between Route 162 in Sprakers and Borden Road due to flooding.
A bridge on Cleveland Road over Mill Creek in Johnsburg was impassable due to flooding.
Trout Lake Road (Route 48) in Bolton was impacted by flooding.
Call Street (Route 32) in Lake Luzerne was impacted by flooding.
Bolton Landing-Riverbank Road (Route 11) in Bolton was impacted by flooding near New Vermont Road.
Warrensburg Road (Route 3) near Thurman was impacted by flooding.
Harrisburg Road (Route 22) in Stony Creek was limited to one lane in places due to damage from flooding.
Crane Mountain Road was closed was closed due to a road washout and flooding.
Glen Creek Road was closed due to a road washout and flooding.
Goodman Road near Johnsburg was closed due to a road washout and flooding.
Bowen Hill Road in Thurman was closed due to flooding.
Dippikill Road was closed due to flooding. The floodwaters cut off the bridge near Glen Creek Road.
Water was reported over portions of High Street in Thurman.
Bird Pond Road was reported closed due to flooding.
River Road just north of Warrensburg was flooded and a portion of the pavement was washed away.
Timothy Murphy Park was flooded due to the Schoharie Creek overflowing its banks.
Water flowed over portions of Route 212 near Pine Lane. Old Route 212 was also closed due to flooding between Blue Mountain Road and Fish Creek Road.
The Hudson River at North Creek rose above flood stage during the early afternoon hours on December 18 and reached moderate flood stage during the evening and overnight hours. The river fell below flood stage during the early evening hours on December 19. This resulted in water covering a portion of State Route 28.
The Hoosic River at Eagle Bridge rose above flood stage, reaching moderate flood stage during the late afternoon hours on December 18 to the early morning hours on December 19. Water overflowed onto River Road next to the Buskirk covered bridge as well as County Route 103 between Route 67 and the covered bridge. In addition, houses were flooded near Eagle Bridge. Newspaper reported flood waters partially submerging a truck and trailer in Buskirk. Portions of Buskirk-West Hoosick Road were also closed.
Route 85A between Martin Road and Towne Lane in the Town of New Scotland was closed due to flooding.
The Hudson River overflowing its banks resulted in flooding at Jessup's Landing in Corinth.
US Route 44 was closed in both directions between Reservoir Road and Van Wagner Road.
There were multiple single lane closures along Route 8 between the Riparius Bridge and Schroon River Road in Chestertown due to flooding.
Route 9N was closed in both directions between Padenarum Road in the Town of Bolton to Sabbath Day Point Road in the Town of Hague due to flooding.
The Hudson River at Fort Edward rose above flood stage during the evening hours on December 18, rising to moderate flood stage overnight through the evening hours on December 19. The river fell below flood stage during the morning hours on December 20. This caused River Road in Northumberland to flood and water to flow over the concrete wall at the Fort Edward Yacht Basin with several homes nearby having water approach them.
The Schroon River rose to moderate flood stage resulting in flooding and washouts along Schroon River Road and East Schroon River Road near Warrensburg.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flood, Greene | 2023-12-18 | 76 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154581, 1154585, 1154582, 1154583, 1154588, 1154570, 1154656, 1154062, 1154644, 1154378, 1154565, 1154215, 1154220, 1154222, 1154572, 1154365, 1154366, 1154369, 1154370, 1154372, 1154374, 1154375, 1154376, 1154377, 1154564, 1154566, 1154630, 1154063, 1154064, 1154067, 1154156, 1154177, 1154227, 1154362, 1154568, 1154569, 1154578, 1154631, 1154641, 1154642, and more.