A terrain based afternoon thunderstorm developed over the McBride burn scar in the Sacramento Mountains near Ruidoso on July 9th. The slow movement of the storm allowed for a period of heavy rainfall over the burn scar to occur.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A terrain based afternoon thunderstorm developed over the McBride burn scar in the Sacramento Mountains near Ruidoso on July 9th. The slow movement of the storm allowed for a period of heavy rainfall over the burn scar to occur. Flash flooding was reported along Gavilan Canyon Road and Warrior Drive by emergency management. Thankfully there were no reports of casualties or injuries.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 10:08 AM MST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1108 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Less shower and thunderstorm activity is expected today as more dry and stable air invades New Mexico. Scattered storms will still impact the southwestern and south central mountains, but rainfall amounts will tend to be on the lighter side. Temperatures will warm a few degrees in many locations, creeping farther above normal and into the upper 90's and even above 100 degrees in lower elevation valleys. An upper level disturbance will enter northeastern New Mexico on Monday, leading to strong to severe thunderstorms with isolated to scattered weaker storms continuing in central to southwestern parts of the state. High pressure will strengthen Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with hot temperatures persisting. Swaths of drier air will tend to limit the amount of showers and thunderstorms during this time. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 A convectively driven frontal boundary is pushing south and west through northeastern NM this morning. Low clouds and higher moisture in the form of 50s to near 60 dewpoints are following in its wake through much of Union County this hour. This boundary is expected to make it through the northeastern and east-central plains by sunrise with potential for low clouds and patchy fog reaching as far as Tucumcari and Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the 593dm H5 upper high remains centered over the northern Chihuahuan Desert and is expected to drift north into the southwestern tier of NM this afternoon. The combination of subsidence from the high and relatively low moisture in the form of 30s to near 40 dewpoints will strictly limit convective potential this afternoon. Scattered storms will favor the higher terrain of the Gila NF and Sacramento Mountains however with little movement over surrounding lower elevations. Despite the influx of higher moisture through northeastern NM, a capping inversion thanks to the cooler boundary layer behind the frontal boundary will prevent convective potential in that part of the state today. The main impactful hazard will be the heat. With highs reaching the low 100s in Albuquerque, near 105F in the lower Rio Grande Valley and Chaves County, a Heat Advisory will be in effect. A well defined 582dm H5 upper low currently coming ashore CA near Santa Barbara will track around the northern periphery of the upper high tonight into Monday, opening to a shortwave trough as it does so. This will bring perhaps a few stray light showers favoring the northern mountains near the CO border Monday morning. It will also increase westerly winds aloft over the northern mountains and over the northeastern highlands and plains Monday afternoon. With the aforementioned cooler airmass having veered out of the south and modified, there will be greater instability and forcing to allow for a robust potential of scattered to numerous storms developing along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With MLCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 2500 J/kg and bulk shear values of 20-30kts, discrete cells will be capable of producing severe wind and hail across northeastern NM Monday afternoon, and into east-central NM by the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Monday's strong to severe storms would likely congeal and exit east central New Mexico into west TX Monday evening. As of now, this cluster of storms is not modeled to send much of an outflow westward into NM as the responsible shortwave trough moves into TX. Going into the daytime Tuesday, surface dewpoints would likely gain a bit more homogeneity across the forecast area while a dry swath aloft pivots into northern zones. This will leave a chance for isolated to scattered storms with the southwestern and south central peaks being favored at 30 to 40 percent. Similar to past years, the NBM seems to be overcooked with its depiction of early monsoon POPs, particularly in the southwestern mountains, so these values were undercut to more realistic percentages, yet most of the activity will likely be inefficient at rainfall production due to such large surface dewpoint depressions. With the upper dome of high pressure also likely reaching its peak strength over southwestern NM Tuesday afternoon, temperatures will be hot and subsidence will also pose difficulty for storms to develop, so the already reduced POPs may still be a bit too high. Lots of locales in the Rio Grande valley and the eastern plains should exceed 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Similar trends will persist into Wednesday with the stout high staying centered near southwestern NM. The best mid level moisture will stay poised over southwestern zones, but again the likely POPs advertised by the NBM seemed too high, so values were dropped to scattered coverage. Temperatures may gain a degree or two in eastern zones with more century mark readings and potential Heat Advisories. Into Thursday, the high starts to elongate on a west- east axis with pressure rises towards the west coast. Pressure heights will not change much over NM, and a near persistence forecast should suffice with hot temperatures and similar POP trends again. Westerlies over the northern and central Rockies will strengthen into Thursday, sending a trough into the upper midwest on Friday, and this will usher a front toward northeast NM either Friday or Friday night. This would lead to some moisture and surface convergence in the northeast where additional storms would potentially initiate, particularly into Friday night. This front would offer slight temperature relief to eastern zones too going into Saturday. The upper high would be sliding northwest toward the Great Basin Saturday and Sunday, and this would open the door to another front via northwest flow aloft late next weekend. Once again, moisture and storm chances would increase in the northeastern zones with a few more degrees of cooling there. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Areas of MVFR cigs over ne and east central NM to continue slowly eroding/lifting through 21Z. Upper high center to remain over sw/south central NM during the next 18 hours with mid level moisture circulating into the swrn quarter of NM. While the Four Corners should be mostly clear, sct-bkn high based cumulus mainly from the Contdvd to the central mt chain aft 20Z to result in wdly sct dry showers with gusty erratic winds or short lived tstms until around sunset, especially along and south of I-40. Short term models are not enthusiastic about generating convection from the east slopes of the central mt chain over the ern plains but can't rule out isold cells especially south of I-40. Low level moisture to surge back into ern NM aft 10/03Z with areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in br between 10/10-15Z. Low level moisture may also leak into the KSAF vcnty but not confident any low clouds will develop there. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 136 AM MDT Sun Jul 9 2023 Hot and dry is the rule through the next few days with the upper high centered over southern NM. Highs will top out in the low 100s in lower elevations areas of the Rio Grande Valley. The exception will be the northeastern plains and highlands today and Monday. With the upper high over the state and an overall lack of monsoon moisture penetrating into the state, afternoon storms will be sparse. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity will favor the Gila NF and south-central mountains today through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous coverage will favor the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward Monday afternoon and evening where a few of these storms could become severe. The upper high flattens Thursday, redeveloping over central CA by the end of the work week. This pattern will favor backdoor fronts bringing in cooler and more moist airmasses into the eastern half of the state next weekend. The west will remain mostly dry with bouts of elevated fire weather due to the warm, dry, and breezy conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 97 62 95 60 / 0 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 92 50 90 49 / 0 5 10 5 Cuba............................ 92 59 90 59 / 0 10 10 20 Gallup.......................... 94 57 94 57 / 5 10 10 10 El Morro........................ 89 57 90 56 / 5 20 20 20 Grants.......................... 95 56 93 56 / 5 10 20 20 Quemado......................... 91 60 90 58 / 30 30 40 40 Magdalena....................... 94 68 91 66 / 10 20 40 30 Datil........................... 90 62 88 60 / 20 20 40 30 Reserve......................... 97 53 95 55 / 20 30 40 30 Glenwood........................ 101 63 101 69 / 20 30 30 30 Chama........................... 86 50 85 50 / 0 0 20 10 Los Alamos...................... 91 66 88 66 / 0 10 20 20 Pecos........................... 91 61 90 61 / 0 10 20 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 88 49 85 49 / 0 5 30 20 Red River....................... 84 47 80 46 / 5 10 40 20 Angel Fire...................... 82 42 80 41 / 5 10 50 20 Taos............................ 92 53 90 52 / 0 5 20 20 Mora............................ 88 54 87 55 / 10 20 50 20 Espanola........................ 99 61 96 60 / 0 10 10 20 Santa Fe........................ 92 65 90 64 / 0 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 95 61 93 62 / 0 10 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 99 72 98 70 / 0 10 10 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 100 70 98 72 / 0 10 10 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 102 69 100 67 / 0 10 10 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 100 71 99 69 / 0 10 10 20 Belen........................... 102 66 101 67 / 0 10 10 20 Bernalillo...................... 102 69 100 68 / 0 10 10 20 Bosque Farms.................... 102 65 100 66 / 0 10 10 20 Corrales........................ 102 70 100 69 / 0 10 10 20 Los Lunas....................... 102 66 101 67 / 0 10 10 20 Placitas........................ 98 69 96 68 / 0 10 10 20 Rio Rancho...................... 101 70 99 69 / 0 10 10 20 Socorro......................... 103 73 102 71 / 0 10 20 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 92 64 90 65 / 0 10 10 20 Tijeras......................... 94 65 93 66 / 0 10 10 20 Edgewood........................ 94 59 93 61 / 0 10 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 95 56 94 57 / 5 10 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 91 59 90 61 / 5 10 20 30 Mountainair..................... 94 62 93 63 / 5 10 20 30 Gran Quivira.................... 94 63 94 63 / 5 10 20 30 Carrizozo....................... 99 70 98 69 / 5 10 20 30 Ruidoso......................... 89 64 89 61 / 30 10 40 30 Capulin......................... 79 58 85 57 / 10 10 50 20 Raton........................... 86 58 87 55 / 10 10 40 20 Springer........................ 87 60 90 56 / 10 10 50 20 Las Vegas....................... 90 58 90 59 / 10 10 60 20 Clayton......................... 77 62 88 63 / 5 10 30 20 Roy............................. 82 61 88 59 / 10 10 40 20 Conchas......................... 89 66 95 66 / 0 10 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 92 66 93 66 / 5 10 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 88 65 94 67 / 0 5 30 30 Clovis.......................... 94 66 97 67 / 0 10 30 40 Portales........................ 97 67 101 69 / 0 5 30 30 Fort Sumner..................... 97 69 98 68 / 0 5 20 30 Roswell......................... 106 76 105 75 / 0 5 20 20 Picacho......................... 97 66 98 68 / 10 5 30 30 Elk............................. 95 63 95 65 / 30 5 40 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ219-220-238. && SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...99
The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 54 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:50 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported trees and rocks were carried by running water into the intersection of Gavilan Canyon Road and Warrior Drive. There were no reports of injuries, casualties, or damage to structures.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1099625.