Hail in New Mexico, August 9, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023

After a couple of active weather days, today will be much more
tranquil thanks to dry air moving in on northwest breezes. The
exception to this rule is over the southwest mountains where
monsoon moisture remains in place and isolated afternoon
thunderstorms develop. Monsoon moisture begins creeping back into
New Mexico from the west on Thursday with isolated showers and
thunderstorms returning mainly to western areas. Monsoon moisture
continues to increase on Friday with increasing chances for
afternoon and evening storms, especially south of I-40. Scattered
to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms are then forecast
for most locations Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023

An upper level trough exiting the central Rockies onto the Great
Plains will steer a broad swath of dry air over the northeast half
of the forecast area today, cutting off convection there.  However,
isolated to numerous showers and thunderstorms will return to the
area along and south of a line from the Chuska Mountains to the
south central mountains. Roswell will be one of the locations under
the influence of the dry air, so will continue the Heat Advisory
that is already in effect there for this afternoon and early
evening.

Thursday, a disturbance approaching southern CA and a high pressure
system centered over the Gulf of Mexico will work in tandem to draw
better monsoon moisture northward over NM.  Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will favor locations west of the Rio
Grande, while scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms spread
as far east as Capulin, Las Vegas, and western Chaves and De Baca
Counties. Both Wednesday and Thursday, high temperatures look to
vary from a few to 5 degrees below the 1991-2020 average across
western areas, and as much as around 8 degrees above the average
further east. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for high
temperatures >= 105 F in the Roswell area Thursday, but at this time
it looks like the increased cloud cover associated with the increase
in precipitation may limit the high temperature to 104 F that day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023

At last! The North American Monsoon (NAM) will finally make a
bonafide appearance starting in the southern half or so of the
state Friday and for much of the forecast area over the weekend
and into early next week. Global weather prediction models are
now in good agreement deepening/strengthening the closed low off
the CA coast, helping to draw up deeper monsoon moisture from the
Gulf of CA and Sierra Madre. Models also agree that a southerly
wind speed max will result in Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA)
over western NM Friday night and Saturday morning, helping to keep
convection going over southwest and possibly west- central NM
Friday night and Saturday morning. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms are forecast for most areas over the weekend
with locally heavy rainfall likely mountains and western
valleys/basins. As the monsoon high over TX inches westward
Monday, the southerly moisture plume shifts to western NM/eastern
AZ Monday with locally heavy rainfall a good bet for much of
western NM. By Tuesday, the monsoon high moves back far enough
westward over NM to greatly limit shower and storm chances to
western and northern NM Tuesday through much of the latter half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Very dry air will move over the northeast half of the forecast
area tonight and Wednesday inhibiting showers and thunderstorms
there. However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to return to the area along and south of a line from
our Chuska Mountains to our south central mountains Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Wet microbursts are expected with erratic
wind gusts potentially reaching over 50 mph near stronger cells.
Storm motion will be toward the east and southeast at speeds
around 15-20 kt. High temperatures a few to around 7 mph along the
central mountain chain and over the southwest mountains will make
density altitude an important consideration for aviation
operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Wed Aug 9 2023

An upper level trough exiting the central Rockies onto the Great
Plains will steer much drier air over the northeast half of the
forecast area today, cutting off showers and thunderstorms there.
Meanwhile, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for west central and southwest areas this afternoon and
evening. The edge of the dry and moist air will probably see some
isolated dry and gusty thunderstorms in the mix this afternoon,
mainly northwest of Albuquerque to the Chuska Mountains.  Otherwise,
conditions are coming together for a traditional surge of monsoon
moisture to cross the state Thursday through Monday as a stationary
upper low on the central and southern CA coast works with an upper
high over TX to draw subtropical moisture northward out of Mexico.
Most mountain locations look to receive around 0.25-1.25 inches of
rain during the five day period with locally higher amounts, and
generally lower amounts at lower elevations. High temperatures
should also tend to vary between 8 degrees above and below normal,
with the below normal readings over western areas where the best
monsoon moisture will be found. Coverage and wetness of showers and
thunderstorms look to decrease Tuesday and again Wednesday of next
week as the high pressure system moves more directly over NM.  High
temperatures will also trend upward as the high moves overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  92  58  88  60 /   0  10  30  20
Dulce...........................  87  49  87  48 /   0   5  30  20
Cuba............................  86  54  85  55 /   5   5  40  20
Gallup..........................  86  55  86  54 /  30  30  50  30
El Morro........................  81  53  82  52 /  40  30  60  40
Grants..........................  87  53  85  52 /  30  10  60  30
Quemado.........................  82  56  83  55 /  70  40  80  50
Magdalena.......................  85  61  86  62 /  50  20  60  30
Datil...........................  81  55  82  57 /  70  30  70  30
Reserve.........................  87  53  90  52 /  70  30  70  30
Glenwood........................  93  63  94  60 /  60  30  60  30
Chama...........................  81  46  82  45 /   5   0  40  10
Los Alamos......................  85  62  84  63 /   5   0  50  10
Pecos...........................  87  58  87  62 /   0   0  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  84  47  84  44 /   5   0  30  10
Red River.......................  79  42  79  44 /   5   0  40  10
Angel Fire......................  78  36  79  40 /   0   0  30  10
Taos............................  87  51  87  51 /   0   0  20  10
Mora............................  83  52  84  54 /   0   0  20  10
Espanola........................  93  58  91  60 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe........................  87  62  87  64 /   0   0  20  10
Santa Fe Airport................  90  58  90  60 /   0   0  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  93  68 /  10   5  20  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  67  93  67 /  10   5  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  95  65  95  64 /  10   5  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  66  93  66 /  10   0  20  20
Belen...........................  96  64  95  63 /  20   5  20  20
Bernalillo......................  94  64  96  65 /   5   0  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  95  61  95  62 /  10   5  20  20
Corrales........................  94  65  95  66 /  10   0  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  95  62  95  64 /  10   5  20  20
Placitas........................  91  65  92  66 /   5   0  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  94  67 /  10   0  20  20
Socorro.........................  96  66  97  67 /  40  20  40  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  61  85  61 /  10   0  20  20
Tijeras.........................  88  62  87  58 /  10   5  20  20
Edgewood........................  88  59  89  56 /   5   0  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  53  90  54 /   5   0  20  10
Clines Corners..................  87  57  87  59 /   0   0  10  10
Mountainair.....................  89  60  88  58 /  20   5  20  20
Gran Quivira....................  89  61  88  60 /  20  10  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  92  67  93  67 /  20  10  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  86  60  85  61 /  20  20  50  20
Capulin.........................  84  53  86  57 /  10   0  20  20
Raton...........................  87  54  89  56 /   5   0  20  10
Springer........................  91  55  92  57 /   5   0  20  10
Las Vegas.......................  88  53  89  58 /   0   0  20  10
Clayton.........................  87  59  93  64 /   5   0   5  20
Roy.............................  91  59  91  61 /   5   0  10  20
Conchas.........................  97  63  98  67 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Rosa......................  94  63  94  68 /   0   0  10  10
Tucumcari.......................  97  63  98  67 /   0   0   0  20
Clovis..........................  98  66  98  70 /   0   0   5  20
Portales........................  99  68 100  71 /   0   0   5  20
Fort Sumner.....................  99  66  98  69 /   0   0  10  10
Roswell......................... 105  73 104  75 /   5  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  95  67  95  67 /  10  10  30  10
Elk.............................  91  64  92  63 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ238.

&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...44