After a broad area of rain moved through the region earlier in the day, a boundary sagged slowly south through the Ozarks. This boundary became the focus for rounds of rain and storms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
After a broad area of rain moved through the region earlier in the day, a boundary sagged slowly south through the Ozarks. This boundary became the focus for rounds of rain and storms. With ample instability available and a strong low level jet, storms were able to produce measured winds as high as 76 mph at times. With storms moving across the same locations thanks to the slow moving boundary, flooding also occurred for some locations.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 9, 9:29 AM CST, 2 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1029 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Key Messages: 1. Severe thunderstorms likely today, potentially in two separate rounds. Early to late morning, and mid- afternoon into the evening. 2. Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and flash flooding will all be a concern today into this evening. 3. Warming trend into the weekend with rain chances (20-40%) through the weekend. .UPDATE... Issued at 1028 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Active to very active weather day is underway. Round 1: MCS progressing eastward through the forecast area producing some stronger elevated storms but more notably pockets of very heavy rain with 12z KSGF Precipital Water at 1.55 with even greater moisture streaming in from the southwest as LZK and OUN soundings at or above 1.80 inches. On satellite, filtered clearing has reached the I-49 corridor with strong clearing further west and southwest. At the surface, a warm front arcs from a surface low near MLC into northwest Arkansas advecting northward. As this clearing and warm front arrives the atmosphere is expected to destabilize leading to an episode of severe storms into this evening. Roll clouds evident in the warm sector supports good moisture and low level kinematics...with resulted low LCLs this afternoon as forecast by the RAP. By mid afternoon, the 12z RAP surface based CAPES over southwest Missouri of 2500-3500 with a 200-400 SRH with surface winds out of the southeast. The resultant environment will lead to curved hodographs with supercells capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes to develop along the I-44 corridor by mid afternoon sinking slowly south of Highway 60 this evening. Of special concern are Sig TOR parameters suggesting a significant tornado threat in areas along and south of the warm front where backed winds are forecast. Another concern is that Bunkers Right movement to the east at 30 knots suggests that upscale growth may be slowed leading to training of supercells as suggested by CAMs models. With not only the hatched tornado, wind, and hail impacts, training would make flooding a concern. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed the area in a zonal flow pattern with a strong shortwave spinning across Wyoming and northern Colorado and additional energy across northern Kansas. This has caused surface low pressure to begin to deepen across southeast Colorado with a frontal boundary stretching southeast into Oklahoma and northern Texas. 00z regional soundings measured 30-50kts of deep layer shear which is high for the time of year. An instability gradient has set up (axis of 2000-3000j/kg of MU CAPE) from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma and then into the Arklatex. Thunderstorms have formed already in and north of this gradient, even up into Nebraska. VAD wind profile data from Norman, Ok has shown an increasing low level jet over the past few hours and this will continue through early morning. Across the Ozarks, conditions were clear with temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s. This morning into early afternoon: The low level jet will continue to increase through sunrise which will aid in the development of thunderstorms in a northwest to southeast structure from central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These storms will move northeast into the area this morning as the instability axis nudges north and combines with the lift from the low level jet. Adequate wind shear and instability will likely lead to at least some severe threat, mainly hail to the size of quarters. A low level inversion might temper the wind threat however if a strong enough core develops then it might punch through and reach the surface. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall also looks likely with this morning round. There is also a signal in the high res models that as the low level jet begins to weakens and veer towards late morning or lunch time, a few storms may track from eastern kansas into an area north of I-44. These storms may be able to punch through any morning inversion with several models showing some bowing segments which could cause a damaging wind threat. The last few runs of the HRRR also show this. Rainfall amounts through late morning could creep into the 1-3 inch range as heavy rates occur in thunderstorms. The 00z HREF PMM guidance does show pockets of 2-3 inches however they are fairly localized. With the exception of the Lake of the Ozarks/Rolla areas, the area can take this amount of rainfall however we will need to watch those hourly rates which can always cause quick, localized flash flooding. Afternoon into tonight: The greater concern for severe weather and uncertainties exist in this time scale. 00z HREF guidance suggests that there may be a window of time from mid to late afternoon where some destabilization takes place across the area in the wake of morning precip. It should be noted that the 00z NAM appears to be an outlier with respect to timing as it is already at least 6 hours too slow with depicting ongoing precip. It also is a northerly outlier with the surface low track. With that said, most other guidance suggests that the surface low will track into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon with a front stretching to the northeast into the area. Heating may be tempered by cloud cover, especially north of Springfield and there is a wide range of temp possibilities. Areas north and east of Springfield will likely remain in the 70s to perhaps 80. Areas from Springfield and south may be able to reach the lower/middle 80s. There are some models showing upper 80s however its uncertain if we could actually achieve this as we would need much stronger heating than forecast. High res guidance suggest that as the front reaches the I-44 corridor by late afternoon or evening (4-6pm) and as the main shortwave approaches, thunderstorms will develop along the front. Forecast soundings do show convective temps in the low to middle 80s during this time therefore this late afternoon heating is crucial to the development of storms. We are becoming more confident that areas from Springfield and points south will reach these convective temps and thunderstorm development will indeed occur. 0-6km bulk shear values of 50kts, mid level lapse rates around 8-9C/KM and moderate instability will likely lead to initially discrete thunderstorms, potentially supercells. Of particular concern is the surface low as it will act to turn surface winds to the southeast out ahead of it and at the same time the 850mb winds will begin to increase. This will lead to an increasing tornado threat through the evening as storm relative helicity increases. It should be noted that the 00z HREF 24hour tornado probabilities have increased in an area from Springfield and points south into Branson and northern Arkansas. As thunderstorms continue to evolve during the evening, they will likely begin to merge with an increasing threat for both tornadoes and damaging winds to 70 mph as mid/upper level winds are strong and will allow for bowing structures. Large hail up to the size of ping pong balls are likely in the stronger storms and if supercells do indeed form then the expected hail size may need to be even higher. These thunderstorms will continue to track across southern Missouri, especially south of I-44 through late evening, exiting the area by midnight if not before. Frequent lightning and very heavy rainfall rates are likely with these evening storms with some localized flash flooding possible. Remain weather aware through the day and monitor updates as the mesoscale environment will impact the evening thunderstorm threat. The Storm Prediction Center has increased the probabilities for severe weather with an Enhanced risk across a large part of the area. A special balloon launch may occur during the afternoon to assess the environment. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 A northwest flow pattern looks to set up from Thursday into the weekend as a ridge builds across the western CONUS. High pressure and northerly flow on Thursday will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s. However Friday into the weekend the temps will increase back to either side of 90 along with increasing humidity. Additionally, WPC Cluster Analysis supports rain chances (20-40%) through the weekend as subtle shortwaves translate through the upper-level flow. Doesn't look like all day washouts however those with outdoor plans will need to monitor the forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 Confidence is high that thunderstorms will continue through the mid to late morning hours at the sites. A break in the late morning or afternoon hours is expected then additional thunderstorms closer to 00z. Have used tempo groups to highlight the highest chances this morning. Winds will remain out of the south until tonight when a cold front will switch them to the north. MVFR ceilings and vis can be expected in thunderstorms and then again as the front passes tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && UPDATE...Runnels SHORT TERM...Burchfield LONG TERM...Burchfield AVIATION...Burchfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100900- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 400 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited tornado risk. Limited hail risk. Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk. Significant lightning risk. Elevated excessive rainfall risk DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms will move through this morning with frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall. A few storms could be severe with large hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60 mph. Localized flash flooding will be possible. Additional round of thunderstorms looks to develop along and south of Interstate 44 late this afternoon and evening. This round has the potential to be the strongest with large hail to the size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph and tornadoes. Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall are also likely. Localized flash flooding will be possible. There still remains some uncertainty with the strength of this second round. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There will be the potential for isolated thunderstorms across portions of the area through the weekend. Heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s return to the area late this week into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed today for the entire area. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Burchfield
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
850 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
MOZ079-089-090-094-091415-
Polk MO-Greene MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-
850 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE...NORTHWESTERN GREENE AND SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES THROUGH
915 AM CDT...
At 849 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Greenfield to 6 miles west of Everton to
Miller. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake, Ash Grove, Greenfield, Miller, Walnut Grove, Everton,
Dadeville, Halltown, South Greenfield, Eudora and Pennsboro.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3733 9390 3746 9382 3752 9349 3741 9344
3720 9354 3719 9393
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 257DEG 39KT 3742 9378 3735 9382 3724 9383
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TerrySpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
907 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
MOZ079-090-091-094-095-091430-
Polk MO-Greene MO-Webster MO-Lawrence MO-Christian MO-
907 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN WEBSTER...NORTHERN
CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN POLK...EAST CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM CDT...
At 907 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pleasant Hope to 6 miles northwest of
Battlefield to near Republic. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Nixa, Ozark, Republic, Marshfield, Battlefield, Willard,
Rogersville, Strafford, Clever, Fair Grove, Billings, Fremont Hills,
Fordland, Pleasant Hope, Brookline, Elkland, Glidewell, Turners and
Bois D'arc.
This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 60 and 108.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3704 9375 3720 9358 3746 9347 3747 9318
3742 9318 3742 9308 3747 9307 3747 9284
3701 9300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1407Z 263DEG 39KT 3739 9330 3719 9344 3710 9352
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
TerryPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM Rain 1 SE Fair Grove 37.38N 93.14W
08/09/2023 M3.07 inch Greene MO Mesonet
Mesonet station FW3284 Fair Grove.
1201 PM Rain 1 WNW Willard 37.31N 93.44W
08/09/2023 M3.65 inch Greene MO Mesonet
Mesonet station WLCM7 Willard Community
Center.
1115 AM Rain 3 S Mindenmines 37.43N 94.58W
08/09/2023 M3.25 inch Barton MO Mesonet
Mesonet station JONM7 SHAWNEE TRAIL JOPLIN
24 N MO US.
1115 AM Rain 3 S Mindenmines 37.43N 94.58W
08/09/2023 M3.25 inch Barton MO Mesonet
Mesonet station JONM7 SHAWNEE TRAIL JOPLIN
24 N MO US.
&&The Springfield radar (KSGF), 13 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:37 UTC.
11 thunderstorm wind, 4 flash flood, 1 flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Street and yard flooding occurred in town due to heavy rainfall.
Farm Roads 146 and 123 were flooded and impassable at Wilsons Creek.
Yards and fields along Highway B and South Fork Capps Creek were flooded due to heavy rainfall. Water was over Highway B in some locations but not impassable.
A large tree was reported down on a power line.
A wind gust of 76mph was measured by a home anemometer.
Heavy rainfall flooded fields and flowed across a low water area on Highway AA.
Several medium to large limbs were downed and some minor shingle damage was reported.
High winds downed a few trees, knocked power out and caused a few docks to brake loose from moorings. No significant damage was reported.
Multiple trees were uprooted or snapped along Highway 5 to the Arkansas State line. Several power lines were down as well. One tree fell on a home causing minor shingle roof damage.
A few trees were blown over and a home suffered minor to moderate roof damage.
Multiple large trees were downed by high winds. One vehicle suffered minor damage from a falling tree.
Several power lines and poles were downed by high winds along Highway 5 from the Arkansas State line and on Highway W.
Several trees were reported down across the city. No damage was reported.
Wind driven quarters size resulted in minor siding and roof damage to a few homes.
Several trees had the tops snapped off along with numerous large branches downed. One home had a small portion of its metal roof bent up.
County Road 551 at Bridges Creek was flooded and impassable.
A large tree fell into the path of a moving vehicle on County Road 589. No injuries were reported. Several other trees were also reported down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1135205, 1135206, 1135207, 1135223, 1135217, 1135215, 1135218, 1135222, 1135233, 1135219, 1135235, 1135220, 1135224, 1135216, 1135236, 1135210, 1135225.