A remnant upper level low spun near the area aloft and interacted with a surface trough. A severe thunderstorm was able to develop and produced damaging winds in northeast New Jersey.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OKX wrote it up.
A remnant upper level low spun near the area aloft and interacted with a surface trough. A severe thunderstorm was able to develop and produced damaging winds in northeast New Jersey.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 11:45 AM EST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough remains near the region through tonight. Another trough of low pressure approaches from the west on Monday, followed by a slow moving frontal system through late in the week. Weak high pressure may try to move in Friday ahead of potentially another frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As anticipated, showers and thunderstorms have started to develop along sea breeze boundaries in both New Jersey and western Long Island. Updated the forecast to bring likely PoPs into portions of NYC based on the NNE trajectory of convection over New Jersey, otherwise the forecast remains on track with the best chances of showers and storms from NYC north and west. The remnant upper low continues to spin towards the region today and will interact with a lingering surface trough. Convergence from sea breezes may also help focus convective development. Think the greatest coverage will lie near and just west of the NYC metro into northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley, similar to what occurred on Saturday. While a shower or isolated storm cannot be ruled out from east, coverage should end up isolated. Any shower/storm will be capable of producing minor flooding in low lying or poor drainage. A localized flash flooding occurrence cannot be ruled out and WPC has continued to indicate a marginal risk for excessive rainfall mainly just north and west of the NYC metro. Highs today should be able to warm into the 80s, warmest in the NYC metro. Daytime convection likely weakens during the evening with loss of heating. However, guidance has trended towards keeping the middle level vort energy strong enough to produce a shortwave reflection. Another larger upper low will be moving across the Great Lakes tonight, which should help lift the energy over the region tonight. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm remain possible tonight and have kept PoPs at chance to account for this potential. Low clouds and fog are also possible, especially along and near the coast, similar to what has been observed this morning. Not confident yet if the fog will become dense due to the potential shower activity and increase in middle level clouds. It will remain muggy with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Monday could be a more active day with potential of strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flash flooding. The larger upper low and associated trough will continue to move towards the Middle Atlantic and northeast through the day. The main frontal system and low pressure will still lie well west of the region, but a pre-frontal trough likely sets up nearby in the afternoon and evening. This trough will be a focus for a potential line of showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere is progged to become more unstable and bulk shear values look to increase to around 30-35 kt. These ingredients support potential for some of the thunderstorms to become strong to severe. Model soundings indicate around 1000 J/kg of surface based CAPE. One potential negating factor is a potential inversion or cap in the lower levels. This is due to the winds close to the surface coming out of the S to SE. The maritime influence could act to suppress the intensity of the convection. However, SPC has placed portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC metro, NE NJ, and western LI in a slight risk and the rest of the area in a marginal risk. The guidance does have a signal for a potential line of storms to move through in the late afternoon and evening. More of the CAMs will be in range over the next 12 hours, so we should start to gain more confidence in how the environment and convection will evolve. The severe potential diminishes Monday night, but showers and thunderstorms remain possible. The upper trough will be in place over the eastern states and areas of energy may lift northward ahead of the closed low near the Great Lakes. These unsettled conditions will continue into Tuesday. Probabilities for precipitation look high based on model consensus. However, it is a bit difficult to determine what specific time period Monday night into Tuesday would favor more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Strong to severe thunderstorm risk on Tuesday is a bit lower, but still marginal for part of the area based on SPC Day 3 outlook. Minor poor drainage and low lying flooding is possible in any convection Monday through Tuesday. There is also a localized risk of flash flooding, especially in any areas where training of heavy downpours occurs. WPC maintains a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Monday and Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The unsettled pattern will continue through the long term, with the only chance of a brief reprieve and perhaps more intervals of sunshine overall towards Fri / Sat. Coverage of showers and storms may start lessen on Wednesday as the deeper moisture axis starts shifting to the east. However, the upper trough and closed low will only slowly move overhead into Thursday. Shower and scattered t- storm activity remains possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. The trough and associated frontal system may start to shift to the east on Friday, but confidence how this evolves is still quite low. Look for daily max temps to average below normal with a good deal of daytime cloud cover anticipated on average throughout the period. There may be a day towards Fri or Sat where daytime temps may get closer to normal. Night minimums should average close to normal with higher humidity and a good chance of night time cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak low pressure trough will remain nearby. Generally VFR through this afternoon especially immediate NYC terminals but stratus will impact KISP/KGON with MVFR/IFR at times. In addition, showers and thunderstorms possible from NYC terminals north and west mid-late afternoon into early evening with potential MVFR. Best chances will be at KSWF/KEWR/KTEB and included in a TEMPO. Can't totally rule out thunder at KLGA/KJFK/KHPN, with TEMPO only for showers attm. A repeat of fog and low stratus with IFR/LIFR conditions appears likely for tonight. Timing highly uncertain but most likely after midnight. S winds 5-10 kt expected this afternoon, diminishing this evening and then backing SE overnight. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Slight chance of a tstm at KJFK/KLGA late this afternoon, probability still too low for TAF mention attm. Timing of return of lower cond tonight uncertain. The afternoon haze potential forecast for KJFK is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Monday: Showers. Chance of tstms with gusty winds and from the NYC metros north/west, especially afternoon/evening. MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Tuesday and Wednesday: Showers. Tstms with gusty winds and hail possible, especially afternoon/evening. MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. Tuesday S winds G20-25kt. Thursday: Chance of showers and a slight chance of tstms. MVFR or lower possible at times. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 well && .MARINE... Patchy low clouds and fog continue to linger, primarily across the eastern waters. There is potential for fog to expand again tonight, similar to what was observed early this morning. The fog could become dense across some of the waters as well. Otherwise, both winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through tonight night. Conditions should stay below SCA levels on Monday, but increasing towards SCA levels Monday night and especially on Tuesday in a fairly strong S flow. Winds may end up closest to 25 kt on the ocean Tuesday with seas 5-6 ft Monday night through at least Wednesday night. Elevated seas may persist into Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy rainfall is possible this afternoon and evening in any shower or thunderstorm. Minor poor drainage and low lying flooding is the main concern although a localized flash flooding occurrence is possible across NE NJ or the Lower Hudson Valley if training of slow moving storms were to occur. There is a continued risk of minor flooding and localized flash flooding mainly late Monday into Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms. The threat is largely for the entire area and WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through Tuesday. Hydrologic impacts are possible Wednesday into Thursday, but may end up related to where the heaviest rainfall occurs today through Tuesday. WPC currently has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall NW of the NYC metro. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The moderate risk of rip current development continues for all ocean beaches through Monday mainly due to southeasterly swells. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...JE/DS NEAR TERM...FEB/DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JE/DS AVIATION...IRD MARINE...FEB/JE/DS HYDROLOGY...JE/DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 917 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 ANZ338-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067-069>075-176>179-261330- New York Harbor-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson- Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Rockland-Northern Westchester- Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens- Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 917 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. The main threats are damaging wind gusts and hail to around 1 inch in diameter. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria. ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NYZ068-078>081-261330- Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River- Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY- Peconic and Gardiners Bays- South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay- Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm- Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm- Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-Northern Fairfield- Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London- Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex- Southern New London-Putnam-Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk- Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk- 917 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southern Connecticut and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time that would meet NWS warning criteria. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in effect are highlighted. Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS warning criteria.
The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:07 UTC.
1 lightning, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A man was shocked during a passing thunderstorm while using a power tool in his garage. The man was taken to a nearby hospital with non-life threatening injuries.
Spotter reports fallen tree limbs brought down power lines over the rail bridge closest to the intersection of Oak Street and Glen Avenue.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Jersey in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Jersey, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1112272, 1112275.