NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 3:54 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 3:54 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
354 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will bring a mixed bag of wintry precipitation and
accumulating snow to the northern parts of our region through
tonight. Precipitation will linger into Tuesday morning
followed by high pressure and milder temperatures Wednesday.
Weak low pressure passing through on Thursday will be
accompanied by mild temperatures and some light showers before a
stronger storm system tracks across our region Friday and
Friday night.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Our first band of light precipitation is sweeping into the region,
already passing through Delaware and the Eastern Shores of Maryland,
moving north and eastward. A few reports of sleet/ice pellets mixing
in with light rain along this line already, despite warm surface
temperatures, is a good indication of colder air aloft across the
forecast area. Overall our forecast remains the same as our storm
system continues to develop this afternoon and into tonight,
bringing with it accumulating snow and sleet to the north with
mainly rain across the south.
As the parent surface low over the Great Lakes region continues to
weaken and our coastal low begins to develop this evening, we will
see a zone of widespread precipitation begin to fill in as we
continue through the rest of today and into tonight. Warm air
advection will partially be driving the forcing for ascent, however
farther north and west this looks to weaken as the coastal low
develops and starts to take over. The model forecast soundings for
the Pocono region into northern New Jersey indicate that some
warming occurs in a narrow layer, but that precipitation will cool
this. As a result, here is the main breakdown of what to expect this
evening:
I-80 corridor & north...Precipitation onset late afternoon and early
evening may be a mix of rain/snow and perhaps some sleet, but will
transition to primarily snow in the evening. This will set the stage
for decent snowfall accumulations tonight and into early Tuesday
morning. At the moment, we are expecting a heavier wet snow to
accumulate with some sleet possibly mixing in at times. Nonetheless,
we expect a general 5-8 inches of snowfall with locally higher
amounts.
I-78 corridor...Precipitation onset will likely start as a
rain/sleet mix before switching over to snow this evening as dynamic
cooling wins out for a bit of time. As we progress through the
night, however, warm air advection from our strengthening low is
expected to gradually impede and switch the precipitation types to a
mix of snow/sleet/rain overnight (with some locations across the
Lehigh Valley seeing light freezing rain) before becoming mostly
rain by Tuesday morning. In the end, we can expect a general 2-5
inches of snow in this region before we see some compacting from our
wintry mix later tonight.
I-95 and I-76 corridors & south...We will likely see some light rain
showers this afternoon with few ice pellets mixed in. As we enter
the evening, wet bulbing is expected to help cool us enough
vertically to allow for some snow and sleet to mix into the rain,
mainly along the immediate interstate corridors. We anticipate this
mix to linger for a few hours tonight before ultimately switching
over to predominantly rain by midnight. Points south of the
interstate corridors could see a few isolated reports of
sleet/ice pellets tonight, but will remain overwhelmingly rain
for the duration of this storm.
Precipitation should start ending from the southwest overnight and
into early Tuesday morning as the coastal low consolidates and
starts to move away. Precipitation should tend to become lighter
across the northern areas late tonight but will hold on longer into
Tuesday before ending by the afternoon. As we go through Tuesday,
conditions are expected to slowly improve from the south as the
storm system moves farther to our north and east. Cloud cover likely
holds on though for much of the day, especially across the northern
half of the area. Tuesday afternoon temperatures should rebound for
the southern areas where at least some partial clearing should
occur, with much colder air hanging on across the north as the
precipitation slowly ends but cloud cover lingers.
Tuesday night into Wednesday features a lull in between weather
systems across our area. Upper level ridge moves over the Mid-
Atlantic on Tuesday night with surface high pressure centered over
the Southern Great Lakes. Skies will tend to clear out by early
evening with light and variable winds as surface high moves overhead
by Wednesday morning. With clear skies and calm winds, there should
be a decent opportunity for most places to radiationally cool.
Expect lows in the low to mid 20s to the north and upper 20s to low
30s to the south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The mid-level ridge will remain overhead on Wednesday with weak
shortwave energy passing by to our north. At the surface, high
pressure will be pushing offshore but we should remain dry
through the day with filtered sunshine, though clouds will be
increasing through the evening. Return flow on the backside of
the high will push temperatures up some on Wednesday and some
more on Thursday. Highs Wednesday should reach into the 50s for
most, with 60 possible across southern Delaware. Low
temperatures will likely be reached in the early overnight hours
before warm advection increases temperatures through the night.
For Thursday, shortwave energy crosses to our north and south, and a
weak surface low develops across the Tennessee Valley. Some
scattered showers return as the associated warm front lifts through
on Thursday, though guidance differs some on its track as some take
it further north while others push it right through the area. Either
way, the associated lift from the low and shortwave energy will
likely result in some light showers Thursday before tapering off in
the evening as the low and shortwaves depart. Winds will turn
northwesterly for the latter half of the day, but despite this and
ample cloud cover, continued warm advection for the first half with
southerly flow will result in the warmest day of the week with highs
in the upper 60s to the south and mid 50s to the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There continues to be good agreement among model guidance that a
strong storm system will develop across the Mississippi Valley and
track through the Ohio Valley toward New England on Friday. The
details for our area, however, are still uncertain. In the wake
of the departing low from Thursday, brief high pressure will
build to our north with meager cold advection out ahead of the
approaching system. A potent upper trough will eject out of the
southwest US overnight Thursday into Friday and rapidly obtain a
negative tilt as it progresses into the Ohio Valley. The
attendant surface low now looks to follow a similar track
before potentially redeveloping somewhere across the coast.
Generally speaking from a pattern recognition perspective, we
will be lacking a strong, established Arctic high to our north
and east to entrench fresh cold air into the region, so this
setup doesn't scream significant snow for our area.
The 12z ensemble data presents a stronger ridge axis across New
England and pulls it further west. Consequentially, the upper trough
is also trending further west across all ensemble guidance which now
has a closed low rather than an open wave. In response at the
surface, all deterministic guidance also continues the trend of
the surface low further to the west through the Ohio Valley.
The GFS has remained the most insistent on a more westerly track
while the deterministic ECMWF and GEM, which favored a more
southeasterly track, have now joined the GFS with the 28/12z
runs. Ultimately, the result of all of this is that current
thinking aligns with a warmer (less snow, more rain) solution
for this update.
Temperatures Thursday night look to range from the 40s across
Delmarva to the 20s for the Poconos and 30s in between. They
should remain too warm for much in the way of wintry precip
south of I-95; the latest NBM has reduced the chance of
exceeding 4 inches across the Poconos to ~30%, and has less than
a 30% chance of measurable snow along I-95, which makes sense
given the recent trends. A period of wintry precip is possible
extending down into the Lehigh Valley beginning Friday morning
before temperatures increase through the day. In the Poconos,
where temperatures will hold colder for longer, some
accumulating snow may result. It's not out of the question that,
if the westerly track proves correct, some isolated thunder
could even be possible on Friday especially to the south and
east where locations may actually reside in the warm sector of
the low. More details will be ironed out in the coming days.
Looking ahead into the weekend, another trough axis may pass through
the region and result in some scattered showers, though surface high
pressure is progged to build from the west for the latter half of
the weekend. Temperatures look to settle around seasonable normals in
the 40s for the start of the next work week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
This afternoon....VFR with increasing and lowering cloud bases
by late this afternoon. Winds east to southeast 5 to 10 knots.
High confidence.
Tonight...Precip quickly overspreading the area west to east early
this evening with conditions dropping to MVFR by mid evening and
then IFR or lower by late evening. In terms of precipitation types,
all rain for MIV and ACY. Some sleet may mix in at the onset for a
couple hours around KILG and especially the Philadelphia TAF sites.
Farther north a more prolonged wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain
is expected for TTN, and especially RDG and ABE. However even these
sites should go to mainly just rain overnight. Southeast winds 10 to
15 knots this evening backing to northeast around 10 knots
overnight. Some gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be possible tonight.
Moderate confidence overall but low confidence regarding hourly
timing of precipitation types.
Tuesday...Lingering light and spotty rain in the morning, but
possibly some flurries/sprinkles at ABE northward much of the
day. IFR through the morning, mainly due to cigs, with
improvement to MVFR early afternoon with mainly VFR by expected
by late day. Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots backing to northwest
around 5 knots in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Wednesday...VFR. Southeasterly winds 5-10 knots. High confidence.
Thursday...Sub-VFR restrictions possible with light rain showers.
Westerly winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots becoming
northwesterly in the afternoon. Moderate confidence.
Friday...Sub-VFR restrictions likely with rain and a possible period
of mixed precipitation in the morning. Westerly winds 10-15 knots
with gusts 25-30 knots. Low confidence in precipitation type,
moderate confidence in restrictions.
Saturday...Sub-VFR restrictions possible in the early morning as
rain exits. Conditions should improve through the day. Northwesterly
winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Tuesday, low pressure develops off of our coast tonight and
this will tighten the pressure gradient to its north. Strengthening
easterly flow will result and the strongest will be focused across
our northern New Jersey coastal waters. Gale Warnings remain in
effect tonight into early Tuesday morning for this area. Across the
remaining marine zones, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected
to develop early this evening and continue through tonight. The
winds will diminish first on Delaware Bay and then across the
Atlantic coastal waters. Seas on the ocean however will take longer
to subside and therefore the advisory has been extended through
Tuesday night.
Outlook...
Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible in the morning,
then seas diminishing in the afternoon. Northeasterly winds becoming
southeasterly at 5-10 knots. Seas 4-5 feet in the morning
diminishing to 2-4 feet in the afternoon.
Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Southwesterly
winds in the morning becoming northwesterly in the afternoon at
10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. Seas 4-5 feet.
Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected with Gales
possible. Northeasterly winds 20-25 knots with gusts 35-40 knots.
Seas 4-6 feet.
Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected with Gales
possible. Northerly winds 15-20 knots with gusts 30-35 knots. Seas 5-
7 feet.
Sunday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. Northwesterly
winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Seas near 5 feet.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ055.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ054-062.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ061-105.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ001-008.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for NJZ007.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ009-010.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ430-431.
Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ450-451.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ452>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Brudy
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...Brudy
LONG TERM...Brudy
AVIATION...Brudy/Fitzsimmons
MARINE...Brudy/MJL