High Wind in Nevada, October 9, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1255 PM PDT Mon Oct 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...An upper-level trough and accompanying cold front
will move through the region through Wednesday, dramatically
reducing temperatures and bringing at least some light valley rain
and mountain snow showers to northern Nevada tomorrow and
Wednesday. Expect high temperatures in the 50s by Wednesday with
widespread freezing temperatures in the mornings for the latter of
the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night. Clouds will continue
to move into the area as the next storm system enters northern
Nevada. Winds have increased out ahead of the system with some
gusts to 30 mph noted in northern Humboldt county. Very light
returns on radar can also be seen across extreme northwest Nevada.
The threat for light rain showers will increase for locations
across northern Nevada during the overnight hours. Winds will be
strong during the evening with gusts to 30 mph but will wane after
midnight. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 30s and 40s.

Upper level low pressure from the eastern Pacific will slowly
close into the northwest Pacific states Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Rain showers will develop during the morning across Humboldt
county, overspreading eastward during the day. Best chances for
measurable precipitation will be those locales north of the I-80
corridor. Rainfall amounts through the overnight in the north are
forecast to be a 0.10 to 0.25 inches. Highs on Tuesday will be
much cooler with readings in the 50s and 60s in the north and 60s
and 70s across the central locations. Winds will be breezy to
locally windy in the afternoon with west to northwest winds of 15
to 25 mph and gusts to 40 mph. Overnight lows will be in the 30s
for the most part.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday

By midweek, the upper level trough will make its effects felt
across the state, as snow levels will drop throughout the day, and
temperatures will only climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s in
the valleys. Mountain passes and summits will see cooler highs in
the upper 20s to 30s. Cold valley rain, as well as mountain snow
showers will result. Valleys across Humboldt, Lander, Eureka, and
Elko counties will generally see up to 0.05 inches. The mountain
ranges across Northern Lander, Northern Eureka, and Elko counties
will see anywhere between 0.10 and 0.40 inches of rainfall. Some
of that however, may fall in the form of snow showers. As
mentioned earlier snow levels are expected to fall throughout the
day. Snow levels are currently expected to range from 6300 in
Humboldt, to 8000 feet in White Pine county. However as a front
oriented southwest to northeast pushes across Nevada Wednesday,
snow levels will drop to 6500 to 6900 across the same areas by
00Z(or 5pm). Snow levels will continue to drop to 5900-6100 feet
by late Thursday morning. As a result the Ruby Mountains, the
Independence Mountains, and the Jarbidge Wilderness area could see
a range of a trace to 4 inches of new snowfall. Lows will get
into the upper 20s to lower 30s across much of the state. Winds
will be breezy out of the northwest Wednesday, as a jet streak is
over the state. Generally 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph are
possible, with gustier winds along ridgetops and summits.

Thursday, the upper level trough begins to shift east out of the
state. Temperatures will still be cool, in the 50s for most
valleys, amd cooler in the 30s and 40s on mountain peaks and
summits. Winds are expected to be light and out of the north. Low
temperatures will bottom out in the mid 20s to lower 30s. A ridge
of high pressure builds into the state the days to follow,
leading to slowly rebounding temperatures, light winds and dry
condtions. Highs Friday will be in the 60s for most, with cooler
spots still residing in the 40s and 50s. Lows will be warmer , in
the 30s. Nightly lows will generally be in the 30s to low 40s
throughout the rest of the extended. With high pressure and light
winds forecasted, Highs will generally be in the upper 60s to low
70s through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and
evening. VCSH and VCTS may be present this afternoon and early
evening, but will remain generally north of the I-80 corridor.
Sustained SW winds will increase up to 10-15 kts in the afternoon
and evening for all TAF sites, with gusts approaching 20-25 kts at
KWMC, KEKO, KTPH, and KBAM. Winds will veer to a westerly
direction on Tuesday, with similar wind speeds as this afternoon.
Shower activity is still expected to remain north of all
terminals through 00Z Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns remain limited as fuels and
and relative humidity are not expected to reach critical levels
through the forecast period. Overall, relative humidity, cloud
cover, and chances for rain (northern Nevada) will be on an
increasing trend through midweek while temperatures plummet by
Wednesday with highs in the 50s for much of the region. Overnight
lows will be in the 30s.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

86/91/91/86