Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, March 21 to 22, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
236 AM PDT Tue Mar 21 2023

.SYNOPSIS...The next winter system will bring a mix of valley
rain and snow along with gusty winds and isolated thunderstorms to
central NV beginning this morning. By late this afternoon the
front will reach north up to the I80 corridor. Impactful snow
amounts are expected across most of the region this evening
through Wednesday afternoon.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. A warm front in
southern Nevada early this morning will move north today, bringing
a mix of rain and snow to valleys with elevations below 5500
feet, and mostly all snow to higher elevation areas. Showers will
begin in the southern-most portions of the CWA including Tonopah
by 4am, with precipitation extending north to the Highway 50
corridor by around sunrise, and to the I80 corridor around or
shortly after noon. Winds will be gusty this afternoon, with
strongest gusts across central Nevada and mountain areas. Weak
instability may produce isolated thunderstorms across central NV
late this afternoon and early evening. This evening snow levels
lower to all valley floors, with snow accumulating overnight and
through Wednesday afternoon over most of the region. Winter
Weather Advisories or Warnings remain in effect for all zones
except Southeastern Elko County. Snow shower intensity diminishes
on Wednesday, though light showers linger through Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Active pattern continues as the west coast remains under a broad
scale trough centered over the NW US. Thursday through Saturday a
series of shortwaves will transit along the WNW flow aloft around
the long wave trough. These shortwaves will act to generate
scattered convective snow showers across northern and central
Nevada for each day. These showers will bring local light
accumulations of up to 0.5 to 1 inches and re-enforce cold air
mass over the area. Sunday the long wave trough shifts eastward
across the across the northern plains and will be replaced by weak
ridging across the southwestern US. This will bring a brief quiet
period for Nevada through Monday, although a low chance of a
isolated shower will still be possible. Another strong upper
trough drops south out of the gulf of Alaska along the Pacific
coast Monday night, models disagree with the evolution of this
trough as solutions diverge significantly. Temperatures will
continue to be well below normal for this time of year as daytime
highs will range from the lower 30s to lower 40s with record low
high temperatures possible for the weekend. overnight lows may
also approach record levels this weekend, dropping into the upper
single digits to low 20s. Winds will be on the light side, with NW
winds ranging from 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible.

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.AVIATION...The SHSN activity will redevelop and affect central
Nevada during the morning hours, bringing deteriorating weather
conditions to KTPH and KELY. CIGs and VSBYs are expected to
diminish to at or below IFR conditions during the late morning to
afternoon. Winds will increase across the forecast area with
S-SE10-15G20-30KT over the central Nevada terminals, with
NE-E10-15G30KT across the northern terminals of KWMC-KBAM-KEKO.
Look for SHSN to develop across the northern sites later in the
afternoon, after 22Z. Conditions are expected to diminish to
IFR/LIFR in the north under these showers.

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.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday
afternoon for southern Lander/Eureka and White Pine counties, as
well as northern portions of N. Nye County. Areas of overland
flooding, ponding of water in normally dry wash areas and crossing
roads, washed out roads, and muddy conditions continue across
portions of central Nevada. Cold and dry this morning with
temperatures dropping well below freezing mitigating further
snowpack melt. A stronger storm system is expected to impact the
state later today and Wednesday but primary precipitation type
will be snow. This will add to an already existing much above
normal snowpack, in some cases more than one foot of snow,
especially in the higher mountain ranges of central and
northeastern Nevada. Below normal temperatures and prolonged hard
freezes overnight will persist through the rest of the week. No
river and stream flooding is forecast at this time.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
Wednesday ABOVE 5500 FEET in Humboldt County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT
Wednesday Northern Elko County...South Central Elko County...
Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...Southwest
Elko County.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT
Wednesday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon Northeastern Nye
County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County...White Pine County.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM PDT
Wednesday Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye County...
White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT
Wednesday ABOVE 5500 FEET in Northern Lander County and Northern
Eureka County.

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