NWS Las Vegas, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 21, 1:36 AM PST, 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 21, 1:36 AM PST, 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
236 AM PDT Tue Mar 21 2023
.SYNOPSIS...An incoming system will bring a triple-threat of
hazards: heavy snow, flooding, and strong winds. Winter impacts are
expected above 5500 feet in Clark, Lincoln, Nye, Esmeralda, Mohave,
and Inyo Counties. Heavy rain concerns are focused in the Morongo
Basin and southern Mohave County. Gusty winds will exist across the
area, with strongest winds in the Morongo Basin. Cool but calmer
conditions expected in the second half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today and Wednesday.
The unrelenting Winter pattern continues through at least the first
few days of astronomical Spring. Radar this morning shows continued
light upslope showers in southwestern Utah and far northern Mohave
County, as well as light precipitation spreading into our southern
locations. This precipitation and moisture will continue to spread
north throughout the morning as difluence ahead of the low moves in.
After the first surge of shower activity, rain and snow will become
more scattered this afternoon and evening, with some focus along the
cold front likely as it passes through. The heaviest precipitation
will be in the high terrain as a favorable upslope pattern and moist
airmass set up. Forecast PWAT values at KLAS this afternoon are
around 0.7", which would be a record for the date, despite the brunt
of the AR passing to our south. The AR trajectory also allows snow
levels to be lower than usual, largely fluctuating between 5500-6500
feet today. This means moderate to major snow impacts above 5500
feet, where Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect in Clark,
Lincoln, Nye, Esmeralda, and Inyo Counties. With QPF continuing to
trend upward in the Spring Mountains, this event could be one of the
more impressive snowstorms on record, especially for mid-March.
Farther south in the Morongo Basin and southern Mohave County,
orographic enhancement and higher snow levels will yield a flooding
threat. Flood watches have been posted for these areas through
Wednesday evening. Opted to issue winter products for elevations
above 6000 feet in Mohave County, though snow levels will fluctuate
throughout the event. A few inches of snow are expected on the
Hualapais and other high terrain in Mohave County this morning,
before transitioning to rain this afternoon. As snow levels drop
tonight, another round of snow is expected. Total accumulations with
the second round up to 5 inches in the Hualapais. Snow chances will
resume Wednesday afternoon in northern Mohave County, which is why
the Winter Storm Warning continues beyond Wednesday morning while
the Winter Weather Advisory for southern Mohave County ends. Most
locations see a break in the precipitation late tonight and early
tomorrow morning, before scattered showers, and possibly a few
thunderstorms, develop Wednesday afternoon as the cold base of the
trough pivots through. The 00z HREF suggests that a fair amount of
clearing is possible on Wednesday. Diurnal heating with cold air
aloft generates CAPE values up to 400 J/kg based on the HREF. Not
anticipating any severe storms like we saw last week, but the
marginal CAPE and shear around 30 knots may support small hail or
graupel. This activity is expected to dissipate just after sunset.
But wait, there's more! Not only will there be widespread
precipitation, but also widespread gusty winds. Wind Advisories have
been posted for most of the area Tuesday as blustery south winds
develop. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph are forecast, with gusts up to 65
mph possible in the Morongo Basin, where a High Wind Warning has
been issued. Expect hazardous crosswinds on E-W roads, especially
Highway 62 near Twentynine Palms. Wind speeds will begin to wane
late tonight across the area.
.LONG TERM...Thursday through early next week.
An active pattern continues for the region after the
Tuesday/Wednesday system pushes off to the east by Thursday morning.
12Z cluster analysis shows the system evolving into an open
shortwave and its axis east of the Colorado River by Thursday
morning leaving only lingering PoP chances and some gusty winds in
the high elevations of the Sierra and San Bern mountains. By Friday,
a much broader low pressure system evolves from the Pacific NW and
into the Rockies which undergoes deepening per the 18Z EC 500mb
mean. With this trajectory as it is, this would be a much drier
system as PWAT values are well below normal for this time of year
and no appreciable AR set up associated with it. ECMWF EFI shows
little more than potential minor wind impacts through the weekend as
this system moves through.
Heading into early next week however, uncertainty is still rather
high, but 12Z WPC 500 mb cluster analysis show yet another deep
trough evolving off the Pacific which could be tied with yet another
AR event from the eastern Pacific. The long range cluster analysis
shows plenty of variability on moisture content, whether this AR is
cohesive enough to lead to significant precip, timing, etc., so very
little can be said other than continued active weather looks likely
through at least the early part of next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Minor-to-moderate flooding from higher-than-normal
streamflows are forecast to continue within the Meadow Valley Wash
through the week due to recent rain, regional snowmelt, and
controlled releases from the Eagle Valley Dam in preparation for
this week's storm system. Forecast precipitation across the southern
Great Basin next week will only act to exacerbate the ongoing
flooding in Lincoln County.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty winds to around 20kts favoring a
northeast direction expected to decrease to around 10kts by late
afternoon then becoming variable by mid evening. Similar conditions
on Saturday with light winds in the morning becoming northeast and
becoming gusty in the afternoon.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty north winds to 25kts expected at the Colorado
River Valley TAF sites through the afternoon then decreasing for the
evening and overnight hours. Winds increase out of the north and
become gusty once again Saturday morning. Generally light winds up
to 8kts favoring a northerly direction is expected at KBIH. Gusty
northeast to east winds at KDAG into the evening then light before
favoring a northeast to east direction Saturday afternoon.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
SHORT TERM...Woods
LONG TERM...TB3
AVIATION...Salmen
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