Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, March 19 to 20, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
155 PM PDT Sun Mar 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...An active storm pattern is once again in place across
the western US expected to bring several waves of rain and snow
to Nevada through midweek. A mix of valley rain and snow is
expected tonight with the first upper-level trough moving through
the area. This system will also bring gusty south winds to central
Nevada this afternoon. A stronger disturbance with more moisture
to work with will bring considerable mountain snow and impactful
valley snow to much of central and northeastern Nevada Tuesday and
Wednesday. Lingering light snow showers are possible through the
end of the week along with below normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night.

A subtle upper-level short wave ahead of a larger trough moving
through the state is bringing light valley rain and higher
elevation snow to most of central and northern Nevada. Gusty winds
across northern Nye county are expected through the afternoon
hours before diminishing across lower elevations tonight. Snow
accumulation will be confined to elevations above 6000 feet
across northeastern Nevada to above 6500 feet across northern Nye
county. Although precipitation is light it should remain
consistent in gradually adding up through Monday. The main trough
will make its way through the state Monday morning through Monday
afternoon bringing additional precipitation to the area.

Slightly colder temperatures along with a wind shift to the west
are expected as a colder air mass pushes into the region. Highs
Monday will be in the 30s to upper 40s after rising from morning
lows in some locations upper 20s. This will be the "warmest"
night for the rest of the week with teens and lower 20s
predominant after tonight. This next trough will bring favorable
upper-level dynamics and forcing for a few thunderstorms to
develop mainly Monday afternoon across much of eastern Nevada.
Precipitation will taper off Monday night from west to east with
colder overnight lows in the teens for most valley locations with
snow and mid 20s for farther west and south locations.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Sunday

Bottom line: The long term is still expected to be an active
period with a mix of rain and snow showers first before a
changeover to all snow by Tuesday. Temperatures trend colder than
normal for this time of year, but particularly overnight lows
freeze any liquid and will help to mitigate localized flooding
potential.

Tuesday and Wednesday see the arrival of the likely most impactful
of the disturbances. Low pressure lifting through the region
supports widespread snowfall. Probabilistic guidance suggests a
50% to 75% chance of seeing 2 to 4 inches in most valleys and
anywhere from 4 to 10 inches of snow in the higher elevations (at
and above approximately 6500 to 7000 ft.) by the time the low
departs our area on Wednesday night. It's worth mentioning that
some deterministic guidance is hinting at a band of more intense
snowfall rates, but that isn't something that can be worked out
with much confidence a few days out. If this does come to
fruition, localized amounts could be on the higher ends of the
aforementioned ranges. Winds are expected to be on the breezy side
with sustained winds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts
occasionally as high as 35 mph. This would result in travel
concerns due to blowing and drifting snow.

Some wrap around moisture exists behind the low as it ejects to
our northeast, but troughing and a shortwave behind it supports
continuing active weather from Thursday onward. While winds trend
weaker, but still breezy, light snow showers are expected mainly
in northern Nevada. The most likely range of additional snowfall
totals (approximately 50% probability) looks to be up to an inch
in most valleys and 1 to 4 inches in the higher elevations of Elko
county. While this wouldn't necessarily be impactful immediately,
this is more snow on top of above average snowpack, and will have
to be monitored closely when temperatures (finally) warm up.

&&

.AVIATION...A disturbance is currently moving through the region,
and will impact all terminals this evening and through the 24
hour period. CIGs will lower over the next few hours, and will
fluctuate between MVFR and possibly IFR. A mix of light rain and
light snow showers will reduce VIS at times, but will be on and
off in nature through the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday
afternoon for southern Lander/Eureka and White Pine counties, as
well as northern portions of N. Nye County. While recent flood
impacts have lessened in severity, areas of overland flooding,
ponding of water in normally dry wash areas and crossing roads,
washed out roads, and muddy conditions continue to persist. The
next weather system to impact the area will bring a mix of rain
and snow to northern and central Nevada today through Monday. Snow
levels will begin to fall tonight to below 6000 feet limiting
short term hydrologic effects but adding to basin water amounts
overall. In addition, temperatures dropping below freezing at
night will slow the rate of melting. The exception will be tonight
with temperatures only dropping into the middle to upper 20s
limiting a prolonged refreeze. No river and stream flooding is
forecast at this time. A stronger storm system is expected to
impact the state Tuesday and Wednesday but primary precipitation
type will be snow. This will add to an already existing much above
normal snowpack, in some cases more than one foot of snow,
especially in the higher mountain ranges of central and
northeastern Nevada.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Monday Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Wednesday
afternoon ABOVE 6000 FEET in Northeastern Nye County...
Northwestern Nye County...Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt
Range...White Pine County.

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon Northeastern Nye
County...Northwestern Nye County...Southern Lander County and
Southern Eureka County...White Pine County.

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