Well above normal rainfall occurred over the northern half of the county during the month. However near normal rainfall occurred over the southern half of the county, which allowed the D3 Extreme Drought to continue.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
Well above normal rainfall occurred over the northern half of the county during the month. However near normal rainfall occurred over the southern half of the county, which allowed the D3 Extreme Drought to continue. Rainfall amounts ranged from three to eight inches for the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 9:45 PM CST, 2 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 945 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 As of 2 pm CDT, 1 pm MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are mostly clear although some cirrus remains from this morning. Temperatures have risen into the mid 70s to low 80s. Winds are generally southeast at 10-15 mph with some gusts as high as 25 mph. At the surface, a trough of low pressure remains along the Colorado Front Range. There were also a few remnant surface boundaries from last nights storms, one extending from Wray, CO down to Stratton, CO to Kit Carson, CO, and the second extending from Stratton, NE to Brewster, KS to Leoti, Kansas. Aloft, a shortwave trough is moving northeast across New Mexico and southern Colorado. This trough should be the main culprit in helping storms fire up this afternoon, which is already noted across southeast Colorado on WSR-88D radar and GOES satellite imagery. For the rest of the day and into the night, we are once again expecting storms to develop and move across the area this evening. Currently, storms are developing along the Arkansas River basin in southeastern Colorado. In addition, we are starting to see some daytime cumulus along the previously mentioned remnant surface boundary draped across eastern Colorado, a sign that we may start to see storms forming in the next hour or two. Not seeing any daytime cumulus along the eastern surface boundary as of now, but that's not terribly surprising as the cirrus overhead has made the environment further east less favorable at this hour. Overall, the environment can be characterized as unstable with 2000-2500 j/kg SB Cape, low level lapse rates of 6.5-8.5 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates of 7-8.5 J/kg, and near zero CIN. Wind shear is definitely a limiting factor today with 0-6 km bulk shear currently analyzed at less than 25 knots areawide. With building instability and near zero CIN, indicated both from SPC mesoanalysis and sounding forecasts from convective allowing models, am currently anticipating storms to begin firing on the remnant outflow boundaries over the next 2-3 hours. These storms will be more isolated to scattered in nature. Also, I expect the showers and storms forming across southeastern Colorado to form into a cluster, moving northeast into the area later this afternoon into the evening. This is the more likely threat/scenario, especially given how the storms are forming rapidly now in southeastern Colorado. There will be the potential for severe weather given the amount of instability, but any severe thunderstorm will be more pulse-like in nature rather than long-lived, lasting generally less than an hour as a lack of wind shear will lead to a lack of organization. Marginally severe hail, not more than half dollar size in nature, and strong to severe (greater than 58 mph) are the primary threats. What may become the greater threat is the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding, especially if storms are able to fire along the outflow boundaries. PWATs approaching 1 inch, moisture flowing into the region from the southeast, and slow storm motion could lead to additional rounds of heavy rainfall, some of which may fall over locations that have experienced heavy rain and flooding recently. Storms will gradually move north through the evening and overnight hours. It will be interesting to see how far north this potential complex moves across the area as most convection allowing model guidance shows it fading at around Highway 36, something that I am fairly skeptical of. I would expect the storms to keep moving northeast, eventually moving through the entire area. For tomorrow, anticipate another day of afternoon thunderstorms across the region. It will be interesting to see how this evening plays out as that should impact tomorrow's environment/set-up. One key thing to note tomorrow is that the instability doesn't appear to be as strong, likely due to slightly cooler temperatures and daytime cloud cover that is anticipated. A stronger shortwave trough is expected to move through, which should aid thunderstorm development despite the environment not being as favorable. There do appear to be some signs that a dryline should be present, providing a focus for storm development across northwest Kansas and northeast Colorado. With a dryline present and a stronger shortwave, expect more storms to develop although the intensity may be less. With weak steering flow once again, heavy rainfall and flash flooding may once again be a problem. There is one caveat...some of the convective allowing guidance does not show storms forming tomorrow. However, sounding analysis with these models indicate an uncapped environment, which would favor storm development. A little uncertain of what to make of this information, but considering a similar scenario played out yesterday and storms DID fire in the uncapped environment, will plan to go with a forecast favoring a wetter solution. Storms will gradually progress northeast during the overnight hours, perhaps lingering well into the morning hours. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 223 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 For the long term period, relatively cool and moist conditions are forecasted for the weekend with more seasonable conditions forecasted for the end of the weekend and beginning of next week. Friday, an upper low rotates over and into the area during the early morning. This should help increase cloud cover through the day though temperatures are forecasted to still warm to near 80. With the added synoptic lift and relatively high moisture over the area, storms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could be severe with effective shear around 35 kts and MLCAPE and DCAPE around 1000 J/KG. However, if the low swings too far east, storms chances may stay east of most of the area short of Norton & Graham counties. Saturday and Sunday, temperatures are forecasted to be below average as the upper low is forecasted to stay over the area until it retrogrades to the west. With the area remaining relatively moist and having the upper feature nearby, both days will have chances for afternoon/evening storms. Next week, a similar pattern to the last week is forecasted to set up with relatively weak flow aloft. Though with an upper low/trough upstream, it would be reasonable to expect a few shortwave would move through and provide more afternoon/evening storms, especially with moisture remaining over the area. Temperatures are forecasted to warm back towards seasonable with highs near to above 80, but will have to see if the upper low stays together and moves over the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 945 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. South winds around 10kts are expected from taf issuance through 14z, increasing after 15z with gusts up to 35kts forecast. The highest gusts are expected during the afternoon hours. Regarding precipitation chances, the latest guidance shows much less overall coverage of thunderstorms. Could be some close to the terminal in the late afternoon through early evening hours but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time. Similar to the 00z discussion, will be watching for stratus potential and sub VFR cigs in the 08z-14z timeframe as boundary layer saturates. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light southeast wind is expected from taf issuance through 15z. From 16z-02z, southeast winds increase with gusts up to 30kts. After 03z, southeast winds slowly decrease to around 10kts. Similar to KGLD, latest model guidance is showing much less overall shower and thunderstorm coverage. Thus, will not be including any in the forecast. There could be some near/over the terminal in the 12z-18z timeframe and perhaps 00z-03z timeframe. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...RRH LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...99
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 820 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-011300- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 820 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 /920 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... Thunderstorms are possible once again Thursday, Friday, and through the weekend. Severe storms may occur each day with strong to severe winds and large hails as the primary risks. There will also be a continued risk for flooding from heavy rainfall with storms each day. Locations that have received multiple rounds of heavy rainfall or flash flooding recently should keep a heightened awareness of the weather situation, especially for areas that are already flood prone. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
603 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM Rain 14 SSE Stratton 39.10N 102.54W
05/30/2023 M4.00 inch Kit Carson CO Public
Delayed report via social media. Storm total
accumulation.
&&
KMKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
KSZ013-014-027-028-010045-
Wallace KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-
610 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Wallace, southwestern
Thomas, western Logan and Sherman Counties through 645 PM MDT/745 PM
CDT/...
At 610 PM MDT/710 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 16 miles north of Weskan to
14 miles southeast of Wallace. Movement was north at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ruleton.
This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 1 and 28.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3874 10185 3907 10202 3945 10205 3956 10205
3919 10118 3870 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 182DEG 29KT 3910 10196 3873 10146
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JRMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
612 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
KSZ041-042-010045-
Wichita KS-Greeley KS-
612 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wichita and eastern
Greeley Counties through 645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...
At 612 PM MDT/712 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 16 miles southwest of Leoti, moving north at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Wichita and eastern
Greeley Counties, including the following locations... Lydia and
Selkirk.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3869 10172 3870 10127 3826 10128 3826 10173
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 182DEG 29KT 3830 10154
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
JRMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
640 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0639 PM Flood 5 NW Weskan 38.92N 102.02W
05/31/2023 Wallace KS Public
Estimated 4-6 inches of water over County Rd
3 at Willow Creek. Flooding was assumed to
be residual from the day before.
&&
KMKPreliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Goodland KS
949 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1159 PM Rain 13 SSW Bethune 39.13N 102.50W
05/30/2023 M2.74 inch Kit Carson CO Public
Delayed report via social media. Storm total
accumulation.
1159 PM Rain 3 W Quinter 39.07N 100.29W
05/30/2023 M2.40 inch Gove KS Public
Delayed report via social media. Storm total
accumulation.
1159 PM Rain 14 SSE Stratton 39.10N 102.54W
05/30/2023 M4.00 inch Kit Carson CO Public
Delayed report via social media. Storm total
accumulation.
1230 PM Rain 9 NE Wallace 39.00N 101.48W
05/31/2023 E1.50 inch Wallace KS Public
Delayed social media report of storm total
rainfall for yesterday afternoon/evening.
0215 PM Rain Grinnell 39.12N 100.63W
05/31/2023 M1.55 inch Gove KS Public
Delayed social media report of storm total
rainfall from yesterday afternoon/evening.
0430 PM Hail 17 NNW Firstview 39.06N 102.59W
05/31/2023 E0.70 inch Kit Carson CO Public
Time estimated.
0639 PM Flood 5 NW Weskan 38.92N 102.02W
05/31/2023 Wallace KS Public
Estimated 4-6 inches of water over County Rd
3 at Willow Creek. Flooding was assumed to
be residual from the day before.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1128 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM Rain Quinter 39.07N 100.24W
05/31/2023 M1.68 inch Gove KS Trained Spotter
Delayed report of 1.68 inches storm total
rainfall.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Rainfall amounts for the month ranged from three to eight inches, with the highest rainfall amounts in the northwest part of the county. This was near normal to four inches above the normal amount of three to four inches of rainfall for the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1110361.