Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 24, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
210 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Key Messages:

 - Strong to severe storms this morning with hail and damaging
   winds the primary threats. Storms should exit by 10 AM.

 - Hot and humid for the week ahead. Expect highs mostly in the
   90s and heat index values 100-107 through Thursday.

Strong to severe storms have developed in northeast Nebraska on
the nose of strong moisture transport and will push southeast
through the morning hours, exiting by 10 AM or so. Forecast
soundings indicate 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 0-6 km shear
values of 40 to 50 kts. As such, organized supercells should
continue, with large hail the primary threat, along with some
damaging wind threat with little to no DCIN and DCAPE values over
1100 J/kg. Storms may eventually merge into a line as they push
southeast, which may lead to an increased damaging wind threat.
Given the elevated nature of storms, tornadoes are not expected,
but it is worth noting there is decent low level curvature in the
wind profiles.

After precip exits this morning, we'll begin our streak of hot
and humid days with highs in the 90s to lower 100s and dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. NAEFS continues to show 850 mb
temperatures in the 97th to 99th+ percentile of climatology (means
of around 24 to 29 C), which would translate to highs in the 100s
for many. However, EPS is less aggressive and more in the 22 to
26 C range (though that's still quite warm). In addition, guidance
still shows almost daily bits of shortwave energy rounding the
ridge and sliding through/near the forecast area, bringing
potential precip chances, and at the very least, increased cloud
cover. As a result, temperatures on a given day may end up being a
few degrees cooler than currently forecast, but confidence
remains on the lower side on which day(s) this could be. For
today, the big question is how long any morning clouds, precip,
and/or outflow linger in the area. For now, electing to hold off
on any heat advisory, but can't completely rule out having to
issue one later this morning. In addition, we'll likely need
advisories for days later in the week, especially Wednesday and
Thursday, again, pending precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Storms continue to increase in likelihood overnight, with the main
question being the timing and coverage of storms. The timings of
8-930z at KOFK, 9-11z at KLNK, and 1030-12z for KOMA for
thunderstorms are currently the most likely durations for storms
at each of the TAF sites. Strong gusts of wind and damaging hail
are possible, along with MVFR to IFR conditions and LIFR spots
during the stronger downpours. After storms move out of the area,
only a few mid-level clouds and high clouds interrupt the
remainder of VFR conditions and southerly winds that turn
northeasterly tomorrow evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Petersen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
932 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-241645-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
932 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

Some thunderstorms may move through portions of the area after
1 AM tonight into early Monday morning. Severe storms will be also
possible with gusty winds and hail being the main threats. Storms
should move out of the area by 8 or 9 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Sunday

Heat index values could reach 100 to 107 each afternoon Monday
through Thursday, with Wednesday and Thursday likely the hottest
days. Heat advisories may eventually be needed for some areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation is not expected.