The drought status remained unchanged for these counties through the month. D3 Extreme Drought continued across these counties, with a corridor of D4 Exceptional Drought over parts of Hitchcock and Red Willow counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GLD wrote it up.
The drought status remained unchanged for these counties through the month. D3 Extreme Drought continued across these counties, with a corridor of D4 Exceptional Drought over parts of Hitchcock and Red Willow counties. Precipitation ranged from one to three inches, which is as much as two inches above normal.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 11:30 PM CST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1030 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 246 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022
As of 3 pm CST...2 pm CST...skies across the Tri-State Region were
mostly clear after morning clouds burned off. Temperatures ranged
from the 40s where snow still has not melted to nearing 60 degrees
for areas without snow on the ground. Winds were light and variable
across the region. At the surface, low pressure remains east of the
Colorado Front Range. Aloft, zonal flow persists over the High
Plains, but attention is focused on a significant weather system
making landfall on the California coast. It is this weather system
that will bring us another round of wintry weather Monday.
For the rest of the weekend, expect benign weather to continue until
the western US weather system finally makes its way east over the
Great Plains Sunday night into Monday. Today is the warmest day of
the weekend so enjoy it while it lasts. On Sunday, the surface low
will begin strengthening to our west, which should allow a response
in the surface wind field resulting in a shift to north winds,
bringing slightly cooler temperatures back to the region. Increasing
clouds can also be anticipated Sunday as the system makes its initial
presence felt.
On Sunday night, our weather will begin to make its drastic shift
from clear and calm to a return to wintry weather. With this event,
there is definitely some uncertainty which impacts the final
forecast that was produced. I'll go into more details on that in the
following paragraphs.
First, a cold front will make its way south into the region Sunday
night. This will also be accompanied by a strengthening surface low
pressure system moving out over the Plains. These are the main
players driving this weather event. Ahead of the low, return flow
from the southeast is expected, which will bring in moisture to feed
the future precipitation production processes. PWATs on the order of
0.50" are forecast with this moisture plume, which is around the
90th percentile, if not higher, for this time of year. Needless to
say, moisture will be bountiful. While I did mention there will be a
cold front moving south, current projections are the initial surge of
cold air won't be too strong, and there should be a layer of warmer
air just off the surface. Further complicating matters will be a dry
slot aloft moving across the area, which should remove ice from the
atmospheric column for most locations. Overall, the combination of
all these players should lead to a messy forecast situation so
please take this forecast as a generalization for what is most
likely to occur, not what you should precisely expect as any
variation to these elements very well could result in a drastically
different forecast.
As precipitation begins to break out when a lead shortwave moves
northeast over the Plains on Sunday night into Monday morning, it
will be a mess of precipitation types. Temperatures aloft may be
cool enough for a direct change to snow over northeast Colorado
initially, but the further south and east you go, particularly over
southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, we are more likely to see
freezing rain than snow. This is also because of a dry slot
intruding into this system, which will cut off any ice formation
nuclei and thus keep all moisture aloft in the form of supercooled
droplets. I do expect freezing precipitation to likely occur across
all of our forecast area as the colder air should push southeast
enough for that to happen. It does appear as though there will be an
icy commute Monday morning, so area travelers will need to be
especially aware of the potential for icy roadways.
Going into the daytime hours on Monday, a significant surge of warm
and dry air is possible at the surface in western Kansas. How far
north this goes could drastically impact the forecast. Forecast
guidance varies significantly between the forecast members. In fact,
the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows a standard deviation for
high temperatures on Monday of 10 degrees at Hill City, Kansas. This
means that the current forecast of 51 degrees for the high could be
61, or it could be 41 with a very reasonable probability. This type
of variation makes it relatively difficult to pinpoint the
significance of the impacts at this time. Less forecast guidance
variation is currently shown further north and west, so feeling more
confident in mixed precipitation and icy impacts in that direction.
It's the edge of this wintry weather that could vary wildly. Either
way, after an icy commute, temperatures should warm somewhat during
the day which may allow for any ice to melt by afternoon, resulting
in little to no impact afterwards except for areas where wintry
precipitation continues, generally north and west of a line from
Trenton, NE to St. Francis, KS to Kit Carson, CO. The melting ice
potential will be a key detail to this forecast because as the low
begins to eject northeast, stronger north winds are anticipated
behind the low, and those winds would pick up Monday afternoon into
he evening. For areas where the ice remains and the winds increase,
I could see there being a few issues in terms of some possible
downed powerlines due to the added weight of the ice. However, if
the ice melts Monday afternoon, then little to no problems are
anticipated as the winds pick up.
After Monday afternoon's warming and therefore a switch in
precipitation type from freezing precipitation to mostly rain, colder
air will move in behind the low as it moves northeast. This should
result in a change to snow as the atmospheric profile will finally
cool enough for a change to snow for most locations. Overall,
accumulations in the 1-3 inch range look probable, but if colder air
wins the day, then higher amounts are possible. This potential looks
most likely to occur over northeast Colorado where the warm air
intrusion is much less likely to reach. In the end, as a result of
all this, decided to leave the current Winter Storm Watch in place,
although with confidence growing in light ice accumulations as well
as a mix of snow, there is a high likelihood that a winter weather
advisory will be needed for a larger area. Did not feel comfortable
expanding the watch, which is more for warning level events and
current forecast does not approach warning level criteria for snow
(greater than 6 inches) and ice (greater than one quarter inch).
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 210 AM MST Sat Dec 31 2022
The latest guidance has the low pressure system exiting the Tri-
State area Tuesday, moving northeast towards the Great Lakes
Region/Upper Midwest. Depending on how much snow the area receives
Monday, temperatures could be a few degrees too warm than the
current forecasted highs in the 30s. Overnight lows could be in the
single digits to teens. Wind chills could fall as low as the single
digits below zero Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for those
along and west of a Cheyenne Wells to McCook line. Wednesday looks
to be dry with the Tri-State area under zonal to NW flow aloft as
the broad upper trough continues east while an upper ridge moves
over the Western CONUS. Little change in temperatures is anticipated
due to the expected lingering cold air mass and snow on the ground.
Highs are expected to be in the 30s to around 40 degrees across the
Tri-State area with overnight lows in the single digits to mid
teens. Wind chills Wednesday night into Thursday morning look to
fall once again into the single digits above and below zero across
the area.
As we move towards the end of the week, high pressure moves over the
Southwest/Four Corners Thursday. Temperatures look to slowly improve
with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thursday afternoon. Overnight
lows are currently forecast to be in the teens to lower 20s Thursday
night. The weekend warmup continues on Friday with highs in the 40s
to lower 50s and overnight lows in the mid teens to mid 20s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1005 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022
For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecasted for most of the period.
Winds will start of light and variable before becoming more
northerly through the day. IFR conditions are possible near the
end of the period as moisture advects in and the column saturates.
Timing is still uncertain, but confidence is enough to at least
put a mention in.
For KMCK... VFR conditions are expected for the period. Winds will
be variable through most of the day before becoming northerly
during the afternoon hours. There is the potential for sub VFR
conditions shortly after the period as a system moves through.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through late Monday
night for KSZ001.
CO...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for COZ090.
NE...Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening
for NEZ079.
&&
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAKHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 715 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-020215- Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas- Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock- Red Willow- 715 PM MST Sat Dec 31 2022 /815 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2022/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT... No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Yuma County in Colorado, Dundy County in Nebraska and Cheyenne County in Kansas. The watch is in effect from Sunday night at midnight to midnight Monday night. For all areas across the High Plains, there is the potential for accumulating snow as well as freezing rain that will impact area travel, both the Monday morning commute as well as travelers returning home from the Holidays. Snowfall accumulations as high as one to three inches are possible, and ice accumulations as high as one tenth of an inch are possible. Reduced visibilities due to fog, drizzle, and blowing snow are also possible with this system. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Any reports of snow, ice or reduced visibilities with the system Sunday into Monday would be appreciated!
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Precipitation for the month ranged from 1.50-3.00. This was an inch to two inches above normal. Normal precipitation amounts range from 0.25-0.50.
Precipitation for the month ranged from 1.00-2.00. This was an inch to two inches above normal. Normal precipitation amounts range from 0.25-0.50.
Precipitation for the month ranged from 1.50-3.00. This was an inch to two inches above normal. Normal precipitation amounts range from 0.25-1.00.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1074890, 1074891, 1074889.