Winter Storm in Nebraska, December 25 to 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1051 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 700 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

The primary forecast dilemma this evening revolves around whether
or not -- and, if so, what portions of -- the Winter Storm Watch
should be upgraded/converted to a Blizzard Warning, Winter Storm
Warning and/or Winter Weather Advisory. The synoptic setup at
hand.. an intensifying mid-latitude cyclone (centered invof Iowa
Mon- Mon night) evolving into a mature, vertically stacked cyclone
that meanders southwestward into eastern Nebraska then south and
southeastward into eastern Kansas (Tue).. is problematic from a
forecast confidence standpoint. Virtually all guidance indicates
that the southern periphery of a pronounced deformation band (and
attendant precipitation gradient) associated with the maturing
cyclone will fall somewhere within, or adjacent to, the NWS
Goodland county warning area. In other words, precipitation
amounts and impacts in the GLD CWA will be highly sensitive to
the location-orientation-extent of a deformation band associated
with a maturing mid-latitude cyclone that (as of 01Z this
evening) has, itself, yet to develop. Precipitation amounts
across the Tri-State area are likely to come into better focus
as the aforementioned cyclone takes shape over the central
Mississippi River Valley Monday morning (12-18Z Mon). Thus, at
this time, it seems prudent to leave the Winter Storm Watch in
place.. albeit with updated wording/info (refer to WSWGLD).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 143 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

The short term period remains active with the potential return of
impactful winter weather late tomorrow through the remainder of the
period.

Current observations show the surface low well east of the area near
the Eastern Kansas border. This has ended the areas current chance
for meaningful snowfall. There are still flurries and blowing snow
across the area, but new accumulations should be minimal to zero.
Winds remain elevated across the area with gusts between 30 and 55
mph which is helping to blow some snow around, but significant
blowing snow hasn't occurred as the snow was wet and heavy which
limited current blowing potential.

For tonight, western portions of the area may see breaks in the
clouds as the surface low moves further east and north. Winds will
lower a bit which will limit future potential for blowing snow
during the night. Lows are forecasted to drop into the teens and
20's as drier air advects into the area.

For Christmas, winds will pick up again with gusts between 30 and 45
mph. The morning also will start with low wind chills in the single
digits. Otherwise, most of the region will start with no
precipitation and cloud cover with western portions of the area
seeing increasing cloud cover through the day as the system pulls
back west. An upper trough currently located near MT/WY is
forecasted to move slowly towards the Plains which will help pull
the low center back towards the Plains. This will create a somewhat
uncommon scenario where snow will return and spread from east to
west across the area later in the day.

As the system pulls back, snow is forecasted to start impacting
northeastern parts of the area by Christmas afternoon. It will also
move the low surface center back closer to the area which will
tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds later in the day.
With this, blizzard conditions may become possible starting for
Eastern parts of the area and then expanding further west through
the evening and overnight hours. With this, a Winter Storm Watch has
been issued for counties along and north of I-70. There are still a
couple of scenarios where the area does not meet either winter storm
or blizzard criteria. The winds may initially be too light to
produce blizzard conditions and then strengthen the most away from
the heaviest snow. This could lead to something similar with the
past event where there was spotty, but inconsistent blizzard
conditions. Snow amounts may also not reach warning criteria as the
snow is forecasted to fall over a longer period of time and may not
have any convective elements to produce heavier snow. In spite of
the long duration potential, overall QPF may be low similar to
events where the air column just saturates with little to no
forcing. This would occur if the low stayed a few counties away from
the area and produced snowfall somewhat similar to what we have seen
this afternoon. In either case though, hazardous to dangerous road
conditions are possible and blizzard conditions may be more likely
this time as the snow is forecasted to be drier later in the event.

As alluded to earlier, winds themselves may be problem not just
with blowing snow, but potentially reaching high wind criteria.
Current guidance still suggests a chance for counties near the
Colorado border to have gusts up to 60 mph as they would not be near
the center of the upper trough/low and surface low and be in the
tighter gradients.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1205 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

Wednesday...this mornings GFS/ECWMF/GEM/GEFS models are in rather
good agreement in producing a chance for continued wraparound light
snowfall for locations generally along/north of I-70 during the day
as the storm system that has produced snow and wind in days prior
slides southeast into Missouri by days end then into Kentucky
overnight.

Northwest winds gusting 30 to 45 mph are anticipated during the
morning, decreasing slightly in the afternoon with rapidly
decreasing speeds overnight. The combination of any snowfall or
lingering snow cover with the anticipated winds will produce some
degree of blowing snow during the day.

High temperatures have been lowered significantly compared to 24
hours ago with readings in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Low
temperatures fall into the middle teens to lower 20s.

Thursday...GFS/ECMWF/GEFS 500mb pattern shows low pressure across
the mid atlantic states with a large upper ridge over the area. Dry
weather is expected with high temperatures in the middle 30s to
middle 40s and low temperatures in the middle teens to lower
20s.

Friday...dry weather is expected with high temperatures in the lower
to upper 40s and low temperatures in the middle teens to lower 20s.

Saturday...dry weather is currently forecast with high temperatures
in the 40 to 50 degree range and low temperatures in the teens.

Sunday...current forecast is for dry conditions with highs in the
middle 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1045 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

..Dangerous Aviation Conditions Expected Christmas Evening into
Tuesday..

VFR conditions (observed at 05 UTC this evening) are anticipated
to prevail through sunrise Monday morning. Conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR during the day.. earliest at the MCK
terminal.. further deteriorating to IFR-LIFR late Monday
afternoon and evening as precipitation /snow/ overspreads the
region from the east. Breezy (20-30 knot) NNW winds will persist
into Monday.. further strengthening to 30-40 knots late Monday
afternoon and evening. Blizzard conditions are likely to affect
the MCK terminal -- possibly the GLD terminal, as well -- Monday
night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for KSZ001>004-013>016.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for COZ090-091.

NE...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday
     night for NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
508 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-260015-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
508 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023 /608 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

Breezy north winds will persist overnight. Localized reductions in
visibility associated with blowing snow can be expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect Christmas afternoon through
Wednesday morning for areas located along and north of Interstate
70.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report hazardous winter weather
conditions to the National Weather Service in Goodland via telephone
or social media.

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
504 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     Snow             1 E Saint Francis       39.77N 101.79W
12/24/2023  M3.3 inch        Cheyenne           KS   Trained Spotter

            Snow total for December 24th as of 430 pm
            MST. Prior to the snowfall, 0.10 inches of
            rain fell. Snow was not currently falling.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Goodland KS
505 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0121 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
12/24/2023  M53 MPH          Sherman            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KGLD Goodland. Visibility
            reduced to 3sm due to light snow and blowing
            snow.

0800 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
12/24/2023  M51 MPH          Sherman            KS   ASOS

            ASOS station KGLD Goodland.

1250 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 9 N Page City           39.22N 101.13W
12/24/2023  M51 MPH          Thomas             KS   Mesonet

            WeatherLink site Summers646.

0604 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Rexford                 39.47N 100.74W
12/24/2023  M50 MPH          Thomas             KS   Mesonet

            Station KKSREXFO12.

0445 AM     Snow             Burlington              39.30N 102.27W
12/24/2023  E8.0 inch        Kit Carson         CO   Storm Chaser

            8 inches of snow reported at location in 3
            hrs. 1-2 foot drifts reported as well.
            Visibility of less than 20 ft at times
            reported with blowing snow.

0243 PM     Snow             Bonny Reservoir         39.62N 102.17W
12/24/2023  E8.0 inch        Yuma               CO   CO-OP Observer

            Co-op observer estimated 24 hour snowfall at
            8 inches presently.

0945 AM     Snow             1 NE Burlington         39.31N 102.26W
12/24/2023  M7.2 inch        Kit Carson         CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

1230 PM     Snow             4 NNE Vernon            39.98N 102.25W
12/24/2023  M6.6 inch        Yuma               CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

1200 PM     Snow             4 NW Alvin              40.35N 102.14W
12/24/2023  M4.5 inch        Yuma               CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0700 AM     Snow             7 NNW Peconic           39.42N 102.20W
12/24/2023  M3.5 inch        Kit Carson         CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0800 AM     Snow             4 NNE Wray              40.14N 102.20W
12/24/2023  M3.5 inch        Yuma               CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0503 PM     Snow             1 E Saint Francis       39.77N 101.79W
12/24/2023  M3.3 inch        Cheyenne           KS   Trained Spotter

            Snow total for December 24th as of 430 pm
            MST. Prior to the snowfall, 0.10 inches of
            rain fell. Snow was not currently falling.

0700 AM     Snow             3 NNW Ruleton           39.38N 101.90W
12/24/2023  M3.0 inch        Sherman            KS   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0256 AM     Snow             1 SSW Burlington        39.29N 102.28W
12/24/2023  E2.0 inch        Kit Carson         CO   Storm Chaser

            2 inches of snow reported within 40 minutes
            at location.

0800 AM     Snow             Mcdonald                39.79N 101.37W
12/24/2023  M2.0 inch        Rawlins            KS   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0945 AM     Snow             6 NNW Parks             40.12N 101.78W
12/24/2023  M2.0 inch        Dundy              NE   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0830 AM     Snow             1 NE Goodland           39.36N 101.70W
12/24/2023  M1.6 inch        Sherman            KS   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0830 AM     Snow             12 N Wheeler            39.93N 101.71W
12/24/2023  M1.5 inch        Cheyenne           KS   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0900 AM     Snow             13 N Edson              39.51N 101.57W
12/24/2023  E1.5 inch        Sherman            KS   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0826 AM     Snow             2 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.69W
12/24/2023  M1.3 inch        Sherman            KS   Official NWS Obs

            24 hour snowfall.

0900 AM     Snow             13 SW Joes              39.50N 102.82W
12/24/2023  M1.1 inch        Kit Carson         CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

1025 AM     Snow             6 SSW Vernon            39.85N 102.32W
12/24/2023  M1.0 inch        Yuma               CO   Cocorahs

            24 hour snowfall.

0315 PM     Snow             7 NW Atwood             39.88N 101.13W
12/24/2023  M1.0 inch        Rawlins            KS   Trained Spotter

            Spotter estimated around 1 inch of snow
            accumulation as of 315 pm MST.

0143 AM     Snow Squall      1 SW Kanorado           39.33N 102.05W
12/24/2023                   Sherman            KS   Storm Chaser

            Corrects previous snow report from 1 SW
            Kanorado to snow squall type. Corrects
            previous snow report from 1 SW Kanorado.
            Heavy snowfall and thundersnow reported in
            Kanorado, KS. Blowing snow reducing
            visibility to less than 1/4 mile. Unknown
            snowfall amount at this time.

0400 AM     Snow Squall      5 S Burlington          39.23N 102.28W
12/24/2023                   Kit Carson         CO   ASOS

            Corrects previous snow report from 5 S
            Burlington to a snow squall event type.
            Blowing snow causing 1/4 mile visibility at
            ASOS station KITR Burlington Co Airport.
            Northerly winds 56G41 kts. Snowfall amount
            unknown.

0540 AM     Snow Squall      1 SW Goodland           39.34N 101.73W
12/24/2023                   Sherman            KS   Law Enforcement

            Dispatch reported snow squall/whiteout
            conditions causing 1/4 mile visibility at
            location.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
842 PM MST Sun Dec 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     Snow             3 W Wray                40.08N 102.28W
12/24/2023  E3.0 inch        Yuma               CO   Public

            Reported via social media. Total snow
            accumulation for December 24th as of 830 pm
            MST. Snow was no longer falling.

&&

KMK