A tight west/east surface pressure gradient resulted in high wind gusts across the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A tight west/east surface pressure gradient resulted in high wind gusts across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 3:45 AM MST, 10 hours earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
345 AM MST Sun Feb 19 2023
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday night...
The light to moderate snow showers from last evening have
steadily diminished over the area overnight as a shortwave has
continued to drop south of the area. In its' wake, cyclonic NW
flow will be in place over the region today, bringing snow showers
to the mountains and perhaps some light snow showers or flurries
to portions of the lower elevations. Winds will increase through
the day becoming breezy to strong, especially along the western
foothills later this afternoon and evening. Pressure gradients
will tighten in response to a surface low tracking across central
Montana into northeast Montana by this evening. Latest local wind
guidance gives Livingston a high probability of wind gusts
greater than 50 mph (80-100%), with similar probabilities for wind
gusts of 58 mph or more. Elsewhere along the Hwy 191 corridor,
wind gusts to 50 mph are possible from Big Timber to Harlowton.
Have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for the Livingston area
and Beartooth Foothills from this afternoon into tomorrow
morning.
Snow increases over the western mountains tonight as moisture and
ascent increase over the region. Good upslope flow, instability
and a jet max overhead will lead to impressive snow rates and
several inches of snowfall over west facing slopes. Snow showers
will begin to spread out onto the plains tonight, with
precipitation becoming more widespread over the area on Monday as
a baroclinic zone sets up over the region. At this time, the
greatest threat for snow on Monday looks to be over the central
zones, as there is still uncertainty in a weak cold front making
it into the western foothills. Latest guidance has been slowly
trending farther west with the associated north to northeast wind
push, and will need to monitor this trend as snowfall amounts
could increase in areas from Livingston to the Red Lodge foothills
on Monday. Road surfaces may be wet initially on Monday with
temperatures climbing into the 30s to around 40 degrees before the
cold front drops temperatures, which could cause a flash freeze
to area roads Monday evening. Overrunning precipitation will
continue over the area Monday night, with the snow over the plains
gradually shifting to the north. 2 to 5 inches of snowfall are
possible over portions of the lower elevations Monday into Monday
night. Reinforcing arctic air should deepen the upslope well into
the foothills late Tuesday (see extended discussion) for period of
moderate/heavy snow.
Have gone ahead and upgraded the Winter Storm Watch for the Crazy
and Beartooth/Absaroka mountains from tonight through late
Wednesday night where a few feet of snow is possible, along with
increased winds and increasing avalanche concerns. A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for the remainder of the area from Monday
through late Wednesday night for a prolonged period of snowfall. STP
Tuesday through Saturday...
Confidence remains high for a long duration cold and snow event.
There is agreement between the models for an arctic air mass to
move into the region at the beginning of the week, bringing a
prolonged period of upslope and moisture overrunning on the
plains.
On Tuesday, a reinforcing shot of cold arctic air to the region
is expected. Combined with upslope overrun by a moist mid level
flow, there will be snow across most areas. A deep dendritic
growth layer is expected over the region, which will likely lead
to the heaviest snowfall period of the event. Upslope should
deepen by Wednesday so snowfall will continue. West facing
mountain slopes will see near-continuous snowfall. By Thursday
morning, decreasing moisture and deep cold air will limit
additional snow accumulation.
Notable numbers for 6 inches or more of snowfall Monday through
Wednesday night...70% chance for Billings...Red Lodge
95%...Sheridan 90%...Livingston 42%...Miles City 57%. The
Beartooth mountains have a 90% chance of at least 24 inches.
Tuesday, highs are expected in the 20s to lower 30s and will
decrease through the day. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs should
be in the single digits. Friday will have a slight warm-up, and
highs are expected in the teens and lower 20s. Saturday our warmup
will continue with highs in the low to mid 30s for most.
There is still uncertainty for the specific timing and exact snow
amounts. There will be higher confidence closer to the event, so
check the forecast often. Torgerson
&&
.AVIATION...
Snow showers will continue to drift across the region this
morning. These snow showers will be working with an unstable low
level of the atmosphere and will drop conditions to IFR at times.
The mountains will pick up the most snowfall and be obscured
through most of the period. Wind gusts near KLVM will range from
20 to 30 kts before increasing after 16Z Sunday morning to 35 to
45 kts. Starting around 00Z Monday widespread snowfall will begin
to enter the region bringing widespread reductions to
visibilities and ceilings. Torgerson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 032/041 026/027 901/002 910/001 914/022 006/034
1/N 37/S 5+/S +9/S 71/E 00/B 11/B
LVM 038 031/043 033/037 903/001 911/007 905/027 013/033
3/S 56/O 6+/S 98/S 31/E 01/B 11/N
HDN 040 030/038 023/027 903/004 911/002 919/018 901/034
1/N 57/S 69/O +9/S 81/E 00/B 11/B
MLS 042 031/037 021/025 903/002 910/901 919/012 905/032
1/N 64/S 89/S 98/S 81/I 00/B 00/B
4BQ 041 032/037 024/029 000/004 910/001 914/020 001/033
1/B 67/S 58/O 99/S 81/E 00/B 00/B
BHK 039 027/034 013/017 907/000 914/902 918/011 903/029
1/B 62/S 59/S 88/S 92/S 00/B 00/B
SHR 037 027/037 020/030 904/002 915/004 914/023 002/034
1/B 46/S 48/O ++/S 71/E 00/B 01/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through late
Wednesday night FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169>173-228-235.
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 5 AM MST early this
morning FOR ZONE 63.
Wind Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 AM MST
Monday FOR ZONES 65-66.
Winter Storm Warning in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 5
AM MST Thursday FOR ZONES 67-68.
WY...Winter Storm Watch in effect from late tonight through late
Wednesday night FOR ZONES 198-199.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
934 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 10 ENE MELVILLE 46.17N 109.77W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 7 ESE LIVINGSTON 45.64N 110.43W
02/19/2023 M5.5 INCH PARK MT COCORAHS
0700 AM SNOW 3 NE FROMBERG 45.42N 108.87W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH CARBON MT COCORAHS
0800 AM SNOW 1 WSW LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.58W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH PARK MT COCORAHS
&&
EAPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
952 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0912 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NE WILSALL 46.16N 110.38W
02/19/2023 M54.00 MPH PARK MT MESONET
&&
EAPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1157 AM MST SUN FEB 19 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 AM SNOW 2 N COOKE CITY 45.05N 109.94W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH PARK MT MESONET
0100 AM SNOW 26 ESE EMIGRANT 45.22N 110.24W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH PARK MT MESONET
0100 AM SNOW 3 N COOKE CITY 45.06N 109.95W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH PARK MT MESONET
0100 AM SNOW 12 NE WILSALL 46.11N 110.47W
02/19/2023 M1.0 INCH PARK MT MESONET
1114 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE LIVINGSTON 45.70N 110.45W
02/19/2023 M54.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS
&&
EAPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
134 PM MST SUN FEB 19 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 SE MELVILLE 46.00N 109.84W
02/19/2023 M51.00 MPH SWEET GRASS MT MESONET
1148 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ENE LIVINGSTON 45.70N 110.45W
02/19/2023 M60.00 MPH PARK MT ASOS
1212 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 17 NE WILSALL 46.16N 110.38W
02/19/2023 M59.00 MPH PARK MT MESONET
&&
TWHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted to 58 mph across the area.
Winds gusted up to 67 mph across the area.
Winds gusted up to 64 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1075630, 1075631, 1075632.