Rip Current in Puerto Rico, February 19, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1142 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

TJSJ 19/12z sounding reported east-northeast winds between 15 to
20 mph from the surface to 2 kft. A strong trade wind cap
continues as a dry air mass between mid and upper-levels. Expect
life-threatening rip currents across the Atlantic and eastern
exposed coastlines of the islands. The pleasant temperatures will
continue throughout the day too.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

Showery weather with mainly VFR conditions will prevail across
all terminals during the next 24 hours. Trade wind SHRA/-SHRA
will briefly affect local terminals. 19/12z TJSJ sounding
indicated ENE winds up to 20 kt blo FL020.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1140 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

Choppy and hazardous seas continue as well as life-threatening
rip currents along the north and east facing beaches of the
islands, though conditions seems to be improving. Please,
exercise caution.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

This week will be characterized mostly by passing showers in
moderate to fresh northeast to east northeast winds around high
pressure over the western Atlantic with the passage of the
remnants of weak cold fronts from time to time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Patchy moisture continues to be the driving force behind conditions
across the region over the next few days. These patches of moisture
will bring increased shower activity, as they support passing
showers over the waters, some of which will push onshore from time
to time. The east-northeast/northeast flow persists over the area,
which will result in the bulk of the land-affecting showers being
over eastern and northern Puerto Rico, and particularly in the
northeast. As has been the case for the last couple of days, some of
these showers will also make their way into interior portions of
Puerto Rico. There will be periods of somewhat drier conditions, as
well, when shower activity will decrease, most notably this
afternoon into tonight and Tuesday midday and through the night.
There will likely still be showers, as less prominent patches of
moisture continue to be pulled across the region, but activity
will be decreased. There remains a strong cap over the region, as
well. The 00Z sounding shows little-to-no moisture above around
730 hPa/9000 ft. This will inhibit significant convective
development.

Overall expecting showery conditions across the region, particularly
in eastern and northern Puerto Rico during overnight and morning
hours. Activity will vary by day, driven by patchy moisture. Though
exact details on timing and location of activity remains relatively
uncertain, confidence is high for the overall general forecast
trend. The wettest periods over the short term period are this
morning and tomorrow, particularly during the morning into midday.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...

A weak cold front will push around high pressure in the western
Atlantic. The high pressure will then reform behind the front and
gently nudge the cold front through the local area on Friday
afternoon. This will result in a few more showers and some
increase in winds Thursday and Friday. Friday morning will also
see a peak in precipitable water to 1.3 inches which will return
to only one inch by that afternoon. Winds at the surface then
turn northerly as the high pressure retreats to the west over
Florida. This will also allow a second cold front to approach the
forecast area Sunday and Monday with little significant change in
the weather as it does so.

High pressure at mid and upper levels over the western end of the
Caribbean Sea will promote northerly flow over the area. This
high will move into the Florida Strait by late Thursday and then
back across Cuba late Friday. A fast moving trough will pass north
of the area on Monday followed by a weak ridge. High pressure will
be accompanied by very dry air from 8 or 9 thousand feet and above
through the entire long term period ruling out heavy rains, or
thunderstorms. Seasonal to above normal 500 mb temperatures
between minus 5 and minus 7 degrees will ensure stability at these
levels during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

Generally VFR conds for all aerodromes next 24 hours. Passing SHRA
expected through the period, mostly over waters, with some pushing
onshore from time to time. Add'l SHRA in SW PR, away from terminals
in the afternoon. All SHRA likely to be shallow, with nearly no
moisture above 9k ft; cloud tops blw 12k ft. Winds increase out of
the ENE after sunrise, and expected to be gusty; sustained wind
speeds around 12 to 18 knots, higher psbl near SHRA. After
sunset, winds will weaken, to around 5 to 10 knots overnight.
Maximum winds WNW-NW 35-45 kt btwn FL400-515.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2023

Winds and seas will slowly subside and all small craft advisories
are expected to come down by Monday afternoon. At this time small
craft advisories are not expected to return this month, but small
craft will need to exercise caution due to winds and seas for
much of the period especially in the Atlantic waters.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for PRZ001-002-005-
     008-012.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for PRZ010.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for VIZ002.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM AST this evening for VIZ001.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Monday for AMZ710.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM AST Monday for AMZ712-741-742.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM AST this evening for AMZ715-722-
     725-732.

&&

CAM,CVB,LIS

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
450 AM AST domingo 19 de febrero de 2023

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-200900-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y
Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas cercanas y lejanas a la
costa del Atlantico y del Caribe-
450 AM AST domingo 19 de febrero de 2023

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico.

.DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Condiciones ventosas, particularmente en areas
costeras durante la tarde. Objetos no asegurados pueden ser
arrastrados por los vientos.

.Condiciones maritimas...Oleaje igual o mayor a 7 pies a
traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. Condiciones peligrosas
para las embarcaciones pequenas.

.Corrientes marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son
probable en la zona de resaca particularmente en playas de Culebra,
norte y noroeste de Puerto Rico.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...lunes a sabado

A pesar de una mejora en las condiciones costeras, la mayoria de las
playas tendran por o mes un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas
durante la semana laboral. Condiciones maritimas peligrosas
continuaran, particularmente para las aguas mar afuera, aunque se
espera una mejora en las condiciones durante la semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se requiere la activacion de observadores.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-200900-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-Las aguas cercanas
a la costa del Atlantico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
450 AM AST domingo 19 de febrero de 2023

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses.

.DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche

.Viento...Condiciones ventosas. Objetos no asegurados pueden ser
arrastrados por los vientos.

.Condiciones maritimas...Oleaje igual o mayor a 7 pies a
traves de la mayoria de las aguas locales. Condiciones peligrosas
para las embarcaciones pequenas.

.Corrientes marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son
probable en la zona de resaca particularmente en playas expuestas
al norte o este.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...lunes a sabado

A pesar de una mejora en las condiciones costeras, la mayoria de las
playas tendran por o mes un riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas
durante la semana laboral. Condiciones maritimas peligrosas
continuaran, particularmente para las aguas mar afuera, aunque se
espera una mejora en las condiciones durante la semana.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se requiere la activacion de observadores.