A tight west/east surface pressure gradient across the western portions of the Billings Forecast Area resulted in some high wind gusts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BYZ wrote it up.
A tight west/east surface pressure gradient across the western portions of the Billings Forecast Area resulted in some high wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Billings, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 3, 3:36 PM MST, 7 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
336 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night...
Tonight into Monday, an upper air shortwave trough and surface
low will track from southern Canada to the Dakotas. This pattern
will generate a strong sea-level pressure gradient especially over
the foothills of south central MT tonight and then over southeast
MT on Monday. The pattern will also facilitate strong winds to
near 70 kt at 700 mb tonight into Monday. These factors should act
constructively to produce strong wind gusts to 65-70 mph in the
Livingston-Nye corridor northward to Big Timber and Harlowton. The
probability of wind gusts reaching 70 mph is 80% at Big Timber,
50% at Harlowton, and 10% at Livingston. As the surface low moves
southeastward Monday, surface pressures will rise in south
central MT, which should help to end the strongest winds in the
foothills west of Billings, but should also strengthen the
pressure gradient in southeast MT and produce wind gusts to about
50 mph there.
For the rest of south central MT and north central WY, it will
still be windy tonight into Monday with wind gusts to 30-50 mph,
with those strongest gusts on the hilltops.
Monday night, the SLP gradient looks to re-strengthen over the
western foothills as mid-level winds strengthen and turn more
westerly, which should help lee troughing redevelop east of the
Rocky Mountains. SLP pattern favors Livingston-Nye for strong wind
gusts to 50-60 mph with this wind episode. The probability of wind
gusts reaching 60 mph at Livingston Monday night is 50%.
In terms of precipitation, moist northwesterly flow will bring
additional snow to the mountains tonight into Monday morning,
mainly on west-facing slopes. The probability of receiving at
least 4 inches of snow in the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains near
Cooke City is 60% through Monday night.
Low temperatures will generally be in the 20s and 30s tonight then
20s to lower 40s Monday night. High temperatures will be in the
40s and 50s Monday. RMS
Tuesday through Sunday...
Ridging with NW flow remains over the area for Tuesday and
Wednesday, resulting in a continued warm, windy, and dry period.
Highs in the 60s are currently forecasted for much of the CWA on
both days. These highs are well above normals for this time of
year, many areas will be 20F warmer than average.
A favorable pressure gradient for KLVM will persist into
Wednesday as well, with a pressure gradient of 13-17mb from KIDA
to KLWT. Tuesday into early Wednesday morning the probabilities of
wind gusts of 50+ mph, 58+ mph, and 75+ mph at KLVM are as
follows, 90%, 60-70%, and 5%. The probabilities for gusts diminish
greatly by midday Wednesday, with a 20-40% chance of 50+ mph
gusts, up to a 5% chance of 58+ mph gusts, and 0% chance of 75+
mph gusts. The stronger period of these winds remain just below
advisory level for Livingston. As for Big Timber and Harlowtown,
gusty winds will remain through Tuesday morning before winds shift
to the SW, becoming unfavorable for strong winds. Big Timbers
chances of 50+, 58+, and 70+ mph gusts Tuesday morning are 40-75%,
20-40%, and up to 5%. For Harlowtown, 90%, 35-65%, and 10%.
A pattern shift to WSW zonal flow ahead of a weak, approaching trough
will begin Wednesday evening, bringing increasing precipitation
probabilities through Friday. Chances of precip will move west to
east, with the western zones seeing a 30-60% chance, 20-40% chance
to the central zones, and a 10-20% chance out east. Rain and snow
are possible, with snow more likely in the higher elevations.
High temps in the 30s and 40s are forecasted beginning Thursday
and persisting into the weekend.
With the well above normal temps and windy conditions to start the
week, some concerns of fire weather still exist. Ample cloud
cover and min RHs only bottoming out in the mid 30s, will greatly
help limit the extent of any fire danger.
Matos
&&
.AVIATION...
Winds from KHWQ to K6S0 to KLVM will gust to 50-60 kts this
evening through about 14z Monday. Winds over the plains will gust
to 20-40 kts through the TAF period, and will change direction
from southwest to northwest from 06z to 18z Monday. Isolated to
scattered rain and snow showers will be around the lower
elevations (20-40% chance), but not expecting reductions below
VFR at this time. Mountains will be obscured in clouds and snow
showers into Monday. RMS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/051 036/058 041/058 039/054 030/043 025/040 026/046
22/R 10/B 00/B 23/R 23/S 21/B 11/B
LVM 034/050 038/056 040/056 038/048 026/038 020/036 025/042
42/O 10/N 01/N 44/O 34/S 21/B 22/S
HDN 028/052 029/061 034/060 033/057 026/044 023/042 022/048
23/R 10/B 00/B 13/R 23/S 21/B 11/B
MLS 026/046 027/057 037/058 033/053 027/040 023/037 022/042
20/N 00/B 00/B 12/R 12/S 11/B 01/B
4BQ 027/046 028/059 034/059 034/055 028/041 024/039 022/044
12/R 00/B 00/U 01/N 12/S 21/B 00/B
BHK 021/042 020/053 033/057 030/050 024/038 018/035 017/039
10/N 00/B 00/B 11/N 11/B 11/B 00/B
SHR 022/046 027/059 033/060 032/054 025/040 021/037 018/046
12/O 00/B 00/B 12/R 33/S 32/S 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...High Wind Warning remains in effect until 11 AM MST Monday
FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 10 AM MST Monday FOR
ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.
&&
weather.gov/billingsPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
907 PM MST Sun Dec 03 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0306 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 ENE Livingston 45.70N 110.45W
12/03/2023 M53.00 MPH Park MT ASOS
0812 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 NE Wilsall 46.16N 110.38W
12/03/2023 M56.00 MPH Park MT Mesonet
&&
VertzPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
958 PM MST Sun Dec 03 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0918 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 17 S Fort Smith 45.07N 107.89W
12/03/2023 M51.00 MPH Big Horn MT Mesonet
&&
EAPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Billings, MT
1032 PM MST Sun Dec 03 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0935 PM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 13 SSW Greycliff 45.58N 109.85W
12/03/2023 M54.00 MPH Sweet Grass MT Mesonet
&&
TWHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Winds gusted to 74 mph at the Big Timber Airport.
Winds gusted up to 58 mph across the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1148541, 1148540.