A poorly organized complex of thunderstorms crossed southeast Missouri during the peak heating hours late in the afternoon. An isolated occurrence of wind damage was reported in one of the strongest cells.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A poorly organized complex of thunderstorms crossed southeast Missouri during the peak heating hours late in the afternoon. An isolated occurrence of wind damage was reported in one of the strongest cells. The storms occurred along a cold front that trailed southwest from a low pressure center over Lake Michigan.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 2:03 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 303 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 An MCV moving into west central Illinois is helping to initiate convection over the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. Moderate instability will sustain some healthy updrafts through the afternoon as they move east through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but weak shear will prevent any significant updraft organization. Steep low-level lapse rates and some decent DCAPE will allow for isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds. The severe threat will come to an end with sunset and the convection may not reach southwest Indiana or the Pennyrile of west Kentucky before dissipating. We should be dry overnight into Thursday morning, but with a weak cold front and weak troughing aloft, will leave some small PoPs in the east just to be safe. Much of the 12Z guidance still tries to develop convection in lingering low-level moisture behind the surface trough/wind shift Thursday afternoon. Would expect this activity to be widely scattered at best, mainly over southern portions of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. Once again wind fields will be weak, and instability is questionable with uncertainties as to how much heating will occur and how much moisture will remain behind the boundary. Cannot completely rule out an isolated strong storm or two, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Thursday night and most of Friday will be dry with weak zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure in control. The flow aloft may become cyclonic Friday night and that could bring an area of convection into southeast Missouri or southern Illinois prior to sunrise Saturday morning. This will likely be in some linear form, so strong winds cannot be ruled out at this point. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning would also be a concern. Heat indices have climbed into the 100-105 range mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but it should be fleeting as the convection and associated cloud cover overspread the area through the afternoon. Stayed very close to the NBM guidance for temperatures through the period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 The Quad State area will be stuck in west to northwest flow aloft between persistent troughing over eastern Canada and persistent ridging over the southern Rockies through the first half of next week. There is a good signal in most of the 12Z guidance for a disturbance in the flow to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms that will move eastward through the region at some point from late Friday night through Saturday evening. This could be an organized MCS, so strong winds cannot be ruled out, and heavy rainfall will also be possible. There have been signs of a second disturbance and round of showers and storms Sunday into Monday, but it is not looking as obvious in the 12Z model data. As with the first, if it occurs, strong winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning would all be possible. It would likely take a path farther south than the first. WPC's QPF hits it pretty hard Sunday into Sunday night, and the combination of the two systems produces rainfall ranging from 1" in the north to around 3" in the south. Most of the 12Z guidance pushes the active cyclonic flow to our east by Monday, putting the Quad State in northwest flow aloft with high pressure in charge at the surface. The NBM as it always wants to do, keeps a slight chance PoP somewhere over the region just about every period, but it sure looks like Monday and Tuesday will be dry. There is some consistency amongst the 12Z guidance that another disturbance and surface front will attempt to bring convection southward into the Quad State next Wednesday or Wednesday night. High temperatures will generally be below normal in the lower half of the 80s Saturday with the clouds and precipitation expected. They will then trend warmer through the rest of the period reaching above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday and next Wednesday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s, or near normal through the period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A broken line of SHRA/TSRA will likely impact KCGI around 21Z. The convection will likely be more isolated as it reaches KPAH and KMVN and is likely to dissipate completely before reaching KEVV and KOWB. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, but an MVFR ceiling cannot be ruled out late tonight and in the morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-061000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 /426 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight An isolated severe storm will remain possible through sunset across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and the Purchase Area of west Kentucky. Damaging wind will be the main severe concern. The storms will weaken and become less numerous as they move toward southwest Indiana and west Kentucky this evening. A few storms could linger in the east through the night. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will accompany any storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly over west Kentucky and southern portions of southeast Missouri Thursday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. A good chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the area from late Friday night through Sunday night. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DRS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
300 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
MOZ086-087-100-110-052045-
Wayne MO-Stoddard MO-Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
300 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Bollinger,
southeastern Wayne, western Cape Girardeau and northwestern Stoddard
Counties through 345 PM CDT...
At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Alliance to Leopold to near Lake
Wappapello State Park. Movement was east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Marble Hill, Leopold, Alliance and Patton around 305 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Bollinger Mill
State Historic Site, Daisy, Millersville, Burfordville and Puxico.
This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 111 and 119.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3726 9003 3760 9001 3761 8980 3759 8979
3760 8972 3759 8972 3760 8971 3758 8968
3760 8964 3726 8973 3705 8995 3692 9022
3693 9055
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 270DEG 14KT 3754 8992 3726 8993 3698 9039
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
MOZ109-110-052100-
Butler MO-Stoddard MO-
314 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Butler and
southwestern Stoddard Counties through 400 PM CDT...
At 313 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lake Wappapello State Park to near Poplar
Bluff to Oxly. Movement was east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Poplar Bluff around 320 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Fisk, Dudley and
Qulin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3650 9058 3659 9058 3659 9059 3675 9058
3693 9042 3692 9004 3663 9013 3663 9015
3660 9018 3655 9018 3654 9021 3650 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 274DEG 24KT 3692 9036 3675 9046 3660 9069
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
328 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
ILZ088-092-MOZ086-087-110-111-052100-
Alexander IL-Union IL-Stoddard MO-Bollinger MO-Cape Girardeau MO-
Scott MO-
328 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Union,
northwestern Alexander, southeastern Bollinger, western Scott, Cape
Girardeau and northern Stoddard Counties through 400 PM CDT...
At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Altenburg to Delta to
Puxico. Movement was east at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Chaffee, Oran, Delta and Dutchtown around 335 PM CDT.
Scott City, Benton, Trail Of Tears State Park, Kelso and Cape
Girardeau Airport around 345 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Cape Girardeau,
Bell City and Ware.
This includes Interstate 55 between Mile Markers 78 and 114.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3692 9026 3718 8979 3760 8971 3760 8969
3758 8968 3759 8960 3757 8958 3758 8955
3756 8953 3758 8951 3756 8946 3760 8945
3760 8933 3738 8939 3722 8941 3707 8948
3692 8970
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 269DEG 30KT 3755 8966 3719 8973 3696 9013
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 149 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:33 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple trees were blown down. Power outages were reported. A tree fell on a house.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105018.