Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 5 to 6, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of this evening with
mostly sunny skies and highs topping out in the mid 90s. A weak
shortwave will track across the far southern Texas Panhandle
tonight. More favorable upper dynamics exist farther to the north
and east, however the HRRR/GFS continue to show some convection in
the Childress area moving through overnight tonight. Although the
PoPs have been lowered since the previous forecast as other models
continue to favor the more northerly solutions, a slight chance of
thunderstorms remains mentioned. There remains some model
disagreement/uncertainty into Thursday, however it looks to remain
dry through the afternoon with the forecast similar to today's
mostly sunny skies and mid 90s temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Ridging will remain to our west through the extended forecast
keeping us on the warm side with the potential for a few evening
thunderstorms. By Friday, temperatures will climb back to slightly
above normal with most locations topping out in the mid to upper
90s. Guidance indicates that a weak disturbance will attempt to
rotate across Colorado and northeastern New Mexico during the
afternoon hours with convective initiation occurring. This activity
is then expected to move to the east and southeast through the
afternoon and eventually into our forecast area during the evening
hours. While these storms should be dissipating as they enter our
area a few strong to severe wind gusts would be possible. These
outflow winds may also assist a cold front in dropping into the
northern half of the forecast area for Saturday however confidence
on this occurring remains low at this time. If it does, high
temperatures on Saturday would end up being a bit cooler than Friday
in the low to mid 90s. This front may also serve as a forcing
mechanism for isolated storms during the afternoon and evening as
well. If a storm develops it may become severe with large hail and
damaging winds as the main threats along with heavy rainfall. The
overall synoptic pattern won't change much through early next week
which will keep high temperatures running slightly above normal with
at least a slight chance (20%) of thunderstorms each evening. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

Only site with impact potential through tonight is at CDS where
distant TS currently to the N-NE should help shove a backdoor
front through the terminal this evening, perhaps accompanied by a
few TS. After midnight, another round of potential TS could arrive
from the northwest, but confidence in this latter threat is low.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
232 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

TXZ021>044-061945-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
232 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A thunderstorm complex is expected to move to the east and southeast
across the Texas Panhandle tonight, possibly moving as far south as
areas from Friona to Childress. Should storms make it that far
south, marginally severe wind gusts would be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a slight chance for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern
South Plains Friday evening into early Saturday morning and again
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Strong outflow winds will be the
primary concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.