A small, isolated thunderstorm cell produced damaging winds over a very small area in Hopkinsville. The storm occurred in hot, unstable air ahead of a cold front over southeast Missouri.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A small, isolated thunderstorm cell produced damaging winds over a very small area in Hopkinsville. The storm occurred in hot, unstable air ahead of a cold front over southeast Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 2:03 PM CST, 2 hours 44 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 303 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 An MCV moving into west central Illinois is helping to initiate convection over the Ozark Foothills of southeast Missouri. Moderate instability will sustain some healthy updrafts through the afternoon as they move east through southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but weak shear will prevent any significant updraft organization. Steep low-level lapse rates and some decent DCAPE will allow for isolated strong to severe storms with damaging winds. The severe threat will come to an end with sunset and the convection may not reach southwest Indiana or the Pennyrile of west Kentucky before dissipating. We should be dry overnight into Thursday morning, but with a weak cold front and weak troughing aloft, will leave some small PoPs in the east just to be safe. Much of the 12Z guidance still tries to develop convection in lingering low-level moisture behind the surface trough/wind shift Thursday afternoon. Would expect this activity to be widely scattered at best, mainly over southern portions of southeast Missouri and west Kentucky. Once again wind fields will be weak, and instability is questionable with uncertainties as to how much heating will occur and how much moisture will remain behind the boundary. Cannot completely rule out an isolated strong storm or two, but severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Thursday night and most of Friday will be dry with weak zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure in control. The flow aloft may become cyclonic Friday night and that could bring an area of convection into southeast Missouri or southern Illinois prior to sunrise Saturday morning. This will likely be in some linear form, so strong winds cannot be ruled out at this point. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning would also be a concern. Heat indices have climbed into the 100-105 range mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, but it should be fleeting as the convection and associated cloud cover overspread the area through the afternoon. Stayed very close to the NBM guidance for temperatures through the period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 The Quad State area will be stuck in west to northwest flow aloft between persistent troughing over eastern Canada and persistent ridging over the southern Rockies through the first half of next week. There is a good signal in most of the 12Z guidance for a disturbance in the flow to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms that will move eastward through the region at some point from late Friday night through Saturday evening. This could be an organized MCS, so strong winds cannot be ruled out, and heavy rainfall will also be possible. There have been signs of a second disturbance and round of showers and storms Sunday into Monday, but it is not looking as obvious in the 12Z model data. As with the first, if it occurs, strong winds, heavy rainfall, and lightning would all be possible. It would likely take a path farther south than the first. WPC's QPF hits it pretty hard Sunday into Sunday night, and the combination of the two systems produces rainfall ranging from 1" in the north to around 3" in the south. Most of the 12Z guidance pushes the active cyclonic flow to our east by Monday, putting the Quad State in northwest flow aloft with high pressure in charge at the surface. The NBM as it always wants to do, keeps a slight chance PoP somewhere over the region just about every period, but it sure looks like Monday and Tuesday will be dry. There is some consistency amongst the 12Z guidance that another disturbance and surface front will attempt to bring convection southward into the Quad State next Wednesday or Wednesday night. High temperatures will generally be below normal in the lower half of the 80s Saturday with the clouds and precipitation expected. They will then trend warmer through the rest of the period reaching above normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday and next Wednesday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 60s, or near normal through the period. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 A broken line of SHRA/TSRA will likely impact KCGI around 21Z. The convection will likely be more isolated as it reaches KPAH and KMVN and is likely to dissipate completely before reaching KEVV and KOWB. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, but an MVFR ceiling cannot be ruled out late tonight and in the morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...DRS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-061000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 326 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023 /426 PM EDT Wed Jul 5 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight An isolated severe storm will remain possible through sunset across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and the Purchase Area of west Kentucky. Damaging wind will be the main severe concern. The storms will weaken and become less numerous as they move toward southwest Indiana and west Kentucky this evening. A few storms could linger in the east through the night. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will accompany any storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly over west Kentucky and southern portions of southeast Missouri Thursday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning will be the primary concerns. A good chance of thunderstorms is forecast for all or a portion of the area from late Friday night through Sunday night. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning will be the primary concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DRS
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
439 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Poplar Bluff 36.77N 90.41W
07/05/2023 Butler MO Emergency Mngr
Multiple trees down reports of power outages
and a tree fell on a house.
&&
BMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
441 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0327 PM Hail Poplar Bluff 36.77N 90.41W
07/05/2023 E0.25 inch Butler MO Trained Spotter
&&
BMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
448 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
ILZ076-052230-
Wayne IL-
448 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wayne
County through 530 PM CDT...
At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Helm, or 16 miles northeast of Mount Vernon, moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cisne.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3860 8815 3850 8815 3835 8870 3861 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 250DEG 28KT 3846 8867
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Paducah KY
503 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0335 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Poplar Bluff 36.77N 90.41W
07/05/2023 Butler MO Emergency Mngr
Corrects time previous tstm wnd dmg report
from Poplar Bluff. Multiple trees down,
reports of power outages and a tree fell on
a house.
&&
RSTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
511 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
KYZ001>003-006-MOZ112-114-052245-
Carlisle KY-Graves KY-Fulton KY-Hickman KY-New Madrid MO-
Mississippi MO-
511 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Fulton, Carlisle,
Hickman, Graves, southeastern Mississippi and east central New Madrid
Counties through 545 PM CDT...
At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Lovelaceville to near Clayton.
Movement was east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Mayfield and Cayce around 530 PM CDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Fulton.
This includes Interstate 69 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 1 and
34.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3647 8950 3650 8949 3650 8953 3690 8913
3688 8848 3652 8849 3650 8851 3651 8932
3650 8942 3646 8946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 271DEG 36KT 3688 8886 3650 8928
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
544 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
ILZ076-052300-
Wayne IL-
544 PM CDT Wed Jul 5 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Wayne
County through 600 PM CDT...
At 544 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Schnell, or 12 miles southwest of Olney, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Wayne
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3860 8815 3851 8815 3853 8825 3860 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 208DEG 10KT 3857 8819
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
ATLThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 21 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:45 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There was wind damage to several roofs in the area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105020.