Another typical summertime pattern was in place for May 14th. However, mid-level dry air had made its way over the area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
Another typical summertime pattern was in place for May 14th. However, mid-level dry air had made its way over the area. A strong thunderstorm quickly developed over portions of Pearl River County during the evening. With the dry air in place, the storm produced a wet microburst as it collapsed over Poplarville and damaged an outdoor shed. After that storm dissipated, no other storm was able to get as mature as that one and they all stayed below severe limits.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:30 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 330 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, conditions should remain mostly benign with upper level ridging still parked overhead. Adjusted PoPs in coastal MS to SW MS areas for the late afternoon into the evening as most guidance is hitting on some isolated to scattered showers and storms (20-30%) firing in that area. Otherwise, the rest of the area has very isolated (<20%) storm chances this afternoon due to the subsidence from the ridge. Heading into Monday the upper level ridge will still be in place, but still be starting to weaken. The weakening of the ridge will also allow for an increase in PoPs on Monday as a weak boundary moves into the area. While subsidence from the ridge will try to keep some of the convection at bay, given the weakening of the ridge and an actual firing mechanism PoPs are higher than the last couple days in the 35-45% range. Otherwise high temperatures remain about the same to start the work week, in the upper 80s to low 90s, but with increased moisture available it will feel more muggy as dewpoints rise into the low to mid 70s. A trough axis in the upper levels will break down the ridge into Tuesday, which should help to cool us down a tad. When I say a tad I do mean just a tad, we go from mostly the low 90s on Monday to mostly the upper 80s on Tuesday. The weak boundary from Monday will still be hanging out and with the ridge broken down by Tuesday, rain chances are higher. PoPs will increase into the 45-55% range with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the CWA. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) A shortwave trough axis and associated weak frontal boundary will be passing through the forecast area on Wednesday. In advance of this boundary, a marginally unstable atmosphere will be in place. Mid- level lapse rates will peak around 6.0C/km and MLCAPE should approach 1000 J/KG during the afternoon hours. Although these instability parameters are not ideal, the combination of this marginal instability with increased dynamic forcing from the approaching trough axis should be sufficient to allow a linear band of showers and thunderstorms moving in from the northwest to push through the entire forecast area throughout the day and into the evening hours on Wednesday. Fortunately, little in the way of wind shear is expected, so any convective activity will remain on the weaker side. At most, a few wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible from this convective line as it sweeps through the region. Heavy downpours will also be possible with the storms given that precipitable water values will range from 1.5 to 1.75 inches on Wednesday. Rainfall totals of between 1 to 1.5 inches will be possible with the heaviest downpours. Given the increase in cloud cover and convective activity anticipated on Wednesday, temperatures will be closer to average in the low to mid 80s. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough, a shortwave ridge axis and increased negative vorticity will overspread the Gulf South. As upper level subsidence takes hold, the atmosphere in the mid to upper levels will warm and dry. A mid-level capping inversion will be the result, and this will lead to a very stable airmass across the region. Cumulus development will be suppressed, and at most an isolated shower or very weak thunderstorm could form along the seabreeze boundary in coastal Mississippi or along the lakebreeze boundary on the Northshore either Thursday or Friday afternoon. This is reflected by PoP of 20 percent or less during the afternoon hours in these areas. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions will return with highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 on Friday. The shortwave ridge axis will shift to the east on Saturday as another northern stream shortwave trough and weak front slide into the region. The majority of the dynamic forcing and most favorable lapse rates associated with this trough will slide toward the Carolinas, and this will greatly limit the convective potential in the Gulf South on Saturday. Any convection will be largely driven by the weak surface front passing through, and any convection will be isolated to widely scattered along this frontal boundary. There will also be a west to east gradient in PoP with greater rain chances in place for areas east of the I-55 corridor where overall forcing and instability will be most pronounced. Shear profiles remain limited, so any convective activity will be on the weaker side with a few wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph being the primary concern. Little change in temperatures is expected given the combination of limited cloud development and compressional heating as winds turn northerly during the afternoon hours. As a result, highs will once again climb into the upper 80s and even the lower 90s Saturday afternoon. A building ridge axis over the Southern Plains will then begin to influence the region on Sunday with lower rain chances and warmer temperatures expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 VFR conditions persist at all terminals throughout today as upper level ridging keeps conditions pretty benign. Another chance for some dense fog Monday morning, but this looks to mainly effect MCB bringing IFR vis with some possible MVFR conditions at BTR. This fog will gradually clear out after 14z, returning VFR to all terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 249 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 An upper level ridge will remain overhead through tomorrow and although it will be weakening, surface high pressure will start to build in. This high pressure will continue to keep marine conditions rather pleasant, with fairly calm winds and seas. A weak front will approach the waters Monday, possibly bringing some showers and storms, but should not bring much impact otherwise. Winds will shift towards a more westerly/southwesterly direction through mid week, but this won't bring much of a change in conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 67 90 68 87 / 20 50 40 60 BTR 71 92 71 90 / 20 40 40 50 ASD 71 92 70 90 / 10 40 30 40 MSY 73 91 73 89 / 10 40 30 40 GPT 71 91 70 88 / 20 30 20 40 PQL 69 91 69 89 / 30 40 20 40 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...HL LONG TERM....PG AVIATION...HL MARINE...HL
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
523 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023
MSZ085-142300-
Northern Jackson MS-
523 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Jackson
County through 600 PM CDT...
At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tanner Williams, or 12 miles west of Midtown Mobile, moving west at
15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Big Point, Hurley and Wade.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3058 8841 3056 8856 3074 8861 3074 8842
3072 8841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 077DEG 12KT 3074 8833
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Media relayed images of tin roof blown off of a shed in Poplarville. Time estimated by radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104552.