Scattered thunderstorms developed in the warmth of the afternoon ahead of a back door cold front that sagged into the lower Ohio Valley from the northeast. The storms occurred under northwest flow aloft on the front side of a 500 mb ridge.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed in the warmth of the afternoon ahead of a back door cold front that sagged into the lower Ohio Valley from the northeast. The storms occurred under northwest flow aloft on the front side of a 500 mb ridge. Instability was quite strong, reaching 2000 to 3000 J/kg by late afternoon. Deep-layer wind shear was in the 20 to 30 knot range, which supported some organization of late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms. Isolated damaging wind and a short-lived funnel cloud accompanied the strongest storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:13 PM CST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 313 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 The main concern in the short term forecast remains the potential for organized development of thunderstorms this evening, likely moving southeastward across portions of the Quad State, with the possibility of a few strong to severe storms. Significant adjustments to the forecast have been made to Monday night and Tuesday as models are shifting towards the GFS for a more northern track of the surface low, resulting in a greater rain and thunderstorm potential through Tuesday than in previous model runs. At this time, a surface trough is moving off the East Coast while ridging is present over the western two thirds of the country. Elevated high pressure in the Deep South is helping to steer Gulf moisture northward through Texas to the Midwest. Low pressure is located over North Central Texas. A warm front that has lifted through much of the Quad State has resulted in highs in the mid to upper 80s, with the first 90 degree day of the year at Paducah. Previous model runs brought a cold front through the Quad State today then continuing further south tomorrow, with the GFS as the northern outlier for early week. Now there is fairly strong agreement on that northern track, bringing the low across the Quad State at a slow pace by the end of the short term forecast period, rather than a more southern track in Southern Tennessee. This will significant extend precipitation duration along with delaying the arrival of drier air. Isolated convection has begun to pop up in southern and eastern Missouri with a few small storms in the Ozark Foothills. It is expected that precip coverage will increase as we move towards the evening hours with the frontal boundary as a focus point. CAMs agree on more organized development for the evening near St. Louis, then propagating either towards the ESE or SE into Southern Illinois. Variation between models limits PoPs to the likely range. MLCAPE around 2000+ J/kg and DCAPE above 750 J/kg supports strong to severe wind gusts though CAPE drops off quickly on the northeastern edge of the CWA. Shear of 20-25 kts is rather limited and mid-level lapse rates are 6.5 C/km at best. Hail and tornado development are lesser concerns relative to wind gusts. A slight risk extends from around St Louis to the Evansville Tri-State, with marginal risk elsewhere. Slow moving storms with PW of 1.5-1.75 will result in localized heavy rain and may result in limited flooding issues. With the warm front reversing as a cold front to the south, though not nearly as far as previously model runs suggested, this will help lower temperatures slightly and keep precip chances in the chance range on Monday. The Texas low progresses to Northwestern Arkansas and a few storms ahead of it allows for a marginal risk of severe weather in SEMO on Monday, along with a slight risk ERO in the Ozarks. With the track of this low across the Quad State on Tuesday, there is potential for heavy rain in northern areas with a slight risk ERO on Tuesday though further shifts in the forecast are possible. For the most part, models keep 3 day storm total rainfall around half an inch to two inches with the higher totals in SEMO or Southern Illinois, though the NAM has noticeably high amounts just NW of SEMO. Northwesterly flow behind the low finally brings cooler and drier air to the region Tuesday night. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 A relatively weak shortwave embedded in zonal flow aloft passes overhead on Wednesday. GFS perks up a few showers in the afternoon heating but seems overdone on low level moisture in the northeast flow aloft. Low-level winds shift more to the south and southeast by Thursday afternoon allowing some low level moisture to creep back into the area. Generally still expecting dry conditions based on how things look for now. Friday into Saturday looks to be the active part of the period as a stronger trough moves towards the area dragging a more robust cold front with it. PWATs approach 1.60" with dewpoints in the mid 60s in GFS/ECMWF projections. The timing is still a bit inconsistent run-to- run which results in a little lower 12-hour PoP than the pattern would suggest. The 12z suite seems about 6 hours slower than the 00z run, etc. For now the synoptic picture seems favorable for some thunder, there is a bit of shear and instability for severe potential but it isn't a textbook setup by any means. With the high PWATs efficient rainfall rates may be a factor as well. Following the front temperatures drop a bit. Highs Sunday and Monday are currently set in the upper 70s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 Isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon, but coverage should be low enough that thunder is kept out of the TAF until the early evening when more organized thunderstorm development is forecast. Placement and timing of those storms varies across models but generally moves southeastward across the Quad State. MVFR cigs are likely following these storms while vsby drops to IFR are possible in the heavier rain. Winds will be light except for the potential of some strong gusts with storms. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...ATL LONG TERM...JGG AVIATION...ATL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 325 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-152030- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 325 PM CDT Sun May 14 2023 /425 PM EDT Sun May 14 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through late this evening. The main hazards will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall which may cause minor flooding issues. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm are also possible this afternoon with gusty winds the primary severe weather concern. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Thunderstorm chances continue Monday and Tuesday with another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning are the most likely hazards at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter reports of any severe weather hazards or flooding issues are appreciated.
The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:31 UTC.
1 funnel cloud, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There were several reports of funnel clouds in the Wayne City area. A trained spotter photographed a rope-like funnel that was short-lived.
A tree was down on a power line.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1089576, 1089577.