On Sunday, March 26th 2023 the juxtaposition of high instability and strong mid and upper level shear was confined to central and southern Mississippi. A few predawn supercell thunderstorms developed along an eastward moving line with a break in activity through the remainder of the morning.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
On Sunday, March 26th 2023 the juxtaposition of high instability and strong mid and upper level shear was confined to central and southern Mississippi. A few predawn supercell thunderstorms developed along an eastward moving line with a break in activity through the remainder of the morning. Heating during the day resulted in vigorous redevelopment by afternoon. Near interstate 20, a stalled composite outflow boundary/cold front was lingering in the area and separated the unstable environment from a cooler, stable airmass to the north. The environment supported numerous supercell thunderstorms which produced swaths of large to very large hail, some as large as baseballs (2.75 inch), with much of the destructive hail confined to the vicinity of the boundary. A few of these storms would also produce damaging wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 11:38 PM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1238 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Mid evening surface analysis has a stalled boundary across our
southeast most zones. A subtle disturbance within the southwest
flow aloft as seen on satellite imagery will combine with an
increasing low level jet after midnight to develop convection
along the stalled boundary as it drifts back to the north as a
warm front. The anticipated environmental parameters across our
southeast suggest the potential for hail and damaging winds. In
addition a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This activity
looks to dissipate after sunrise before a more substantial severe
storm threat develops during the day Sunday. Some models suggest
the potential for heavy rain tonight as storms train along the
boundary. Minor flooding issues may also arise in our southeast
prior to sunrise. /22/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023
Tonight and Sunday...
With an upper trough responsible for yesterday's severe weather
departing eastward, a stalled frontal boundary across the northern
Gulf coast will begin retreating as a warm front tonight. The deep
layer high that has been consistently anchored over the western
Atlantic and into Florida remains potent and will aid in restoring
southerlies across the forecast areas and should allow for rapid
boundary layer recover particularly across the Pine Belt tonight.
The net result will be partly cloudy skies for most with mostly
cloudy skies accompanied by showers and storms for portions of
southeast Mississippi. With dewpoints surging into the middle and
upper 60s, upper wind remaining elevated and westerly (55-60 kt at
500 mb), and the presence of the surface boundary aiding as as a
focal point for convective initiation as well as helping to locally
back the surface wind, some storms could be strong to severe. The
primary hazard with this activity will be damaging wind and hail as
large as quarters. A brief tornado can't be totally ruled out. This
activity should diminish into predawn morning Sunday. Otherwise,
lows tonight fall into the middle 50s F north and middle/upper 60s
south.
The warm front continues northward on Sunday and a larger area will
subsequently be encompassed by the advancing warm sector. With upper
flow continuing to generate deep layer shear supportive of
sustained, rotating updrafts (0-6 KM bulk shear >60 kt) and
increasing instability with persistent low level warming/moistening
and maintained steep lapse rates aloft, severe weather will again be
possible. Particularly by afternoon, the best combination of severe
weather ingredients is likely across areas mostly along and south of
I-20 where an "Enhanced" (3/5) risk for severe weather is in place.
Deep layer shear and surface based instability locally exceeding
2,500 J/KG will promote hail that may exceed 2 inches in diameter
("hen egg size") which will be the primary threat as well as
damaging winds to 60 mph. Boundary layer winds may remain
sufficiently backed to promote some risk for tornadoes, particularly
with any discrete storm than interacts with the synoptic warm front
or mesoscale boundaries. Without a substantial synoptically driven
surface low and limited synoptic-scale forcing, boundary layer winds
overall may remain relatively light which should help limit the
potential for strong tornadoes.
Between I-20 and highway 82, a somewhat lower risk exists for severe
weather as deep moisture recovery may struggle to reach these areas.
Here, a "Marginal" (1/5) risk for severe weather is forecast with
primarily a risk for isolated severe storms with damaging wind and
hail as large as quarters. A tornado can't be totally ruled out.
The overall risk for severe weather should diminish into mid-evening
as the diurnal instability begins to wane and storm/shower outflows
help stabilize the boundary layer into the overnight.
Highs top out near 80 F across the area, but with showers and storms
in the forecast some areas may only reach into the middle 70s F
should they receive rain prior to mid afternoon. /86/
Sunday night through Next Saturday...
A series of shortwaves and frontal boundaries will be the story for
the extended period. The forecast will start and end with a wet
pattern with only a day or two of dry weather in between. A warm
front along the MS gulf coast will lift north surging into central
MS increasing moisture and temperatures across the region Sunday. As
this warm front lifts north, dew points will climb well into the
60s, CAPE values will range from 1500-2500 J/kg, and impressive
mid level lapse rates all pose as supportive factors for severe
weather potential. At this time, SPC has highlighted a
'Marginal','Slight', and 'Enhanced' risk threats Sunday into
Sunday night. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
wind gusts. While this set up does not look that impressive for
tornado development, as we enter into our primary severe weather
season, tornadoes can't be ruled out with any systems that roll
through. the severe threat should end before midnight however
lingering showers and storms will persist through the night.
By Monday and Tuesday, the front will stall across central MS
increasing rain and storm chances for both days but by Tuesday
evening, the front will be south of the ArkLaMiss and mid-level
ridging will begin to rule. Dry weather is expected to return to the
region Wednesday and much of Thursday by Thursday a mean longwave
trough across the Rockies will move east across the Plains with an
associated cold front. This front is expected to be in our area by
Friday afternoon and will bring rain and storm chances. At this
time, a severe weather threat is on the table however that will
depend on how fast or slow the evolution of this system takes place.
Will continue to monitor this potential system in the coming days.
In regards to temperatures, the warm weather is here to stay! While
temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 60s Tuesday and
Wednesday, highs will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s throughout
the period. /JNE/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
Satellite imagery and surface obs show MVFR/IFR cigs developing
from the se. Radars were quiet at 0530Z but isold TSRA wl be psbl
at HBG-PIB-MEI through 12Z. VFR conditions wl prevail across the
north through the TAF sites although sct TSRA may affect the sites
during the aftn. VFR conditions wl prevail through Sun morning in
cntrl MS but MVFR cigs and sct-numerous TSRA wl affect the TAF
sites during the aftn. MVFR cigs and the chance for TSRA wl
continue Sunday morning and aftn before tapering off during the
evening. VFR conditions along with -RA is expected during the
evening but IFR cigs may redevelop toward the end of the TAF
period. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 62 79 58 72 / 70 20 50 20
Meridian 62 80 57 72 / 90 30 50 40
Vicksburg 62 79 59 72 / 50 10 50 10
Hattiesburg 66 80 64 74 / 70 50 60 50
Natchez 64 80 61 72 / 50 20 50 20
Greenville 56 72 54 67 / 30 10 30 10
Greenwood 58 76 55 69 / 50 10 40 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&
LCP/JNE/22Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-025>030-034-035-262015- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll- Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Washington-Humphreys- 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Friday. LAZ008-009-015-MSZ031>033-036>045-262015- West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha- Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS- Leake-Neshoba- 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Sunday Sunday afternoon and evening, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday through Sunday night. MSZ046-262015- Kemper- 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Mainly Sunday Sunday afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through Sunday night. LAZ016-023-MSZ047-262015- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Warren- 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Slight TIMING...Sunday Sunday afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters. A tornado cannot be ruled out. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday through Sunday night. LAZ024>026-MSZ048-049-053-054-059>061-262015- Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah- Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS- 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Enhanced TIMING...Sunday Sunday afternoon and evening,severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to two inches in size (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Sunday through Sunday night. MSZ050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-262015- Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Sunday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Enhanced TIMING...Mainly Sunday Sunday afternoon and evening, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to two inches in size. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday night through Friday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through Sunday night. 86 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
235 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
MSZ043-048-260815-
Hinds MS-Madison MS-
235 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Hinds and
south central Madison Counties through 315 AM CDT...
At 234 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Raymond, or near Clinton, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Jackson around 240 AM CDT.
Clinton around 250 AM CDT.
Madison and Ridgeland around 315 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3228 9053 3250 9030 3250 8997 3248 9002
3244 9005 3244 9007 3240 9007 3238 9010
3234 9011 3232 9015 3230 9016 3229 9015
3229 9018 3226 9018 3225 9021 3220 9018
3218 9021 3213 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0734Z 236DEG 25KT 3226 9040
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH
ECSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
236 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
MSZ049-260815-
Rankin MS-
236 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rankin
County through 315 AM CDT...
At 236 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brandon, moving northeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Fannin around 245 AM CDT.
Pelahatchie around 255 AM CDT.
Pisgah around 300 AM CDT.
Leesburg around 310 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3221 9000 3232 9009 3257 8979 3236 8973
3228 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 0736Z 236DEG 25KT 3229 8996
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<40 MPH
ECThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 15 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 08:12 UTC.
30 thunderstorm wind, 19 hail, 4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of hail from quarter to half dollar size fell from near Fannin to the Goshen Springs area.
Nickel to quarter hail fell in the area.
A swath of hail as large as 1.25 inches fell across the area. A few vehicles were dented.
Hail as large as ping pong ball (1.5) was observed near Taylorsville.
A swath of hail as large as ping pong balls fell across Warren County from near the Mississippi River in northern Vicksburg along I-20 eastward to the Hinds County border.
Emergency manager reported multiple trees and powerlines down across I-20 and on Porters Chapel Road.
A swath of very large hail occurred in western Newton County from near Lake to just east of Conehatta. Hail as large as 2.25 inches fell in Conehatta.
Trees were downed across train tracks, causing a train to derail when it ran into the downed trees.
A swath of large hail fell across Hinds county, continuing from the Warren county line near I-20 and then east-northeastward across the city of Edwards where hail as large as 2 inches was found. The hail swath continued eastward just north of I-20, impacting the city of Clinton and subsequently the northern Jackson metro area where hail as large as 1.75 inches fell. Hail continued to fall as the storm moved east into Rankin county.
Scattered trees down and some minor building damage in Edwards.
EM reported tree on railroad tracks at Ben Warren Road in Bolton, MS.
The roof was blown off at Bolton fire station and the Merchant and Planters Bank Supply also had roof damage.
A tree was downed on the roadway on E Airport Road near the Natchez trace parkway intersection.
A large tree limb fell through the roof of a house along Springridge Road.
A tree fell into a home.
Structural damage occurred at the Sonic Drive-in at 849 East Northside Drive.
Trees and limbs were downed in the Trailwood subdivision.
A tree was downed onto a building.
Windows were shattered and a light post was downed at Metrocenter mall.
Numerous houses had trees on them in Clinton.
Powerlines were downed and the tops of power poles broken off at Spring Ridge Road and Highway 80.
A tree was downed onto a house on Waycona Drive.
A tree was downed onto a house on Winn Street.
A merger of two storms resulted in a hail swath extending int Rankin County from Hinds County just north of Lakeland Drive to near the intersection of S471. Hail as large as baseballs (2.75 inches) was observed within this swath.
Tree and powerlines were downed in the road.
Nickel to quarter sized hail fell in the area.
A tree was downed on the intersection of Kickapoo and Pinehaven.
Hail as large as 1.75 inches fell.
Powerlines were downed on the rail road tracks at Parker Drive and Clinton Blvd. intersection in Clinton, MS.
A tree fell on a vehicle.
Hail as large as 2 inches fell.
Hail as large as quarters fell.
Car stuck in flood waters on Autumn Street at Fleetwood Drive off of Suncrest Drive.
A fallen tree blocked Jones Loop Road.
A couple of trees were downed along SCR 558.
Hail up the the size of half dollars (1.25) fell.
A roof was blown off a double wide mobile home.
Vehicle submerged in flood water on West Monument street near the viaduct.
Tennis ball size hail fell on Highway 13, two miles north of Prentiss.
Trees downed at MS 503 and Brand Road.
Roof blown off old tire store causing some minor damage to a church.
Hail as large as 1 inch fell.
Flash flooding was observed at Forest Hill Road and Mccluer Road.
Standing water as a result of flash flooding was observed at the intersection of Lynch Street and Highway 80.
A tree was downed on a house near 10th street. No injuries occurred as family was not home at the time.
Multiple trees and powerlines down across Highway 39 n near Old Country Club Road.
Hail as large as 1 inch fell.
Multiple trees and powerlines were downed near Meridian high school.
Roof damage and downed trees were observed at Meridian NAS.
Tree down on Causeyvile Road resulted in a vehicle crashing into it. Powerlines were also downed in the area.
Hail as large as 1 inch fell.
Hail as large as 1 inch fell.
Quarter sized hail was reported in Soso.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106425, 1106439, 1106442, 1106445, 1106454, 1106452, 1106496, 1106456, 1106490, 1106505, 1106506, 1106515, 1106519, 1106521, 1106522, 1106531, 1106534, 1106538, 1106535, 1106524, 1106533, 1106541, 1106540, 1106497, 1106527, 1106498, 1106537, 1106543, 1106546, 1106508, 1106499, 1106500, 1106742, 1106530, 1106549, 1106548, 1106550, 1106744, 1106554, 1106557, and more.