With ridging sitting over the area for the better part of August, all of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi saw significantly less rainfall than usual for August. This lead to the rapid onset of drought conditions during the beginning of August and lasting through the end of August.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LIX wrote it up.
With ridging sitting over the area for the better part of August, all of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi saw significantly less rainfall than usual for August. This lead to the rapid onset of drought conditions during the beginning of August and lasting through the end of August.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 8, 10:59 PM CST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023
A few storms out over the land areas have been putting out
frequent lightning and some gusty winds (20-40mph). These are
expected to subside by sunset and the evening and overnight is
expected to be pretty dry overall.
High pressure will continue to dominate the upper level pattern
for the area, keeping our area pretty hot and dry overall for the
next few days. Southwesterly surface winds will help to advect
warm, moist air into the area from the Gulf, which will increase
humidities and dewpoints over the next day or two. A shower or
two is possible, but not very likely. PoPs are around 20-30% in
the afternoons the next day or two, especially along the coastal
areas. The main risk from any storm that could develop would be
frequent lightning and gusty sub-severe (30-50mph) winds.
It will still continue to be very HOT for the next few
days. Highs are expected to be in the upper 90 and low 100s for
some areas. We could continue to see broken records as we head
toward the end of the week. Due to higher dewpoints and higher
humidities, feels like temperatures will be 115-120 degrees for
most areas! An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect until 7PM this
evening and again tomorrow from 11AM to 7PM. And an Excessive Heat
Watch is in effect for Thursday from 11AM to 7PM. And this heat
does not appear to be relenting anytime soon as these temperatures
and dry conditions will persist through the weekend.
Some safety information and preparedness information. Please
limit time outdoors during peak heating hours. Wear sunscreen and
loose fitting clothing! And be sure to HYDRATE as heat
illness/stress will continue to be a big threat going into the
next few days. Don't forget your furry friends, they get hot too!
Also, for the urban areas (NOLA, Baton Rouge, MS Coast) is is
particularly important to take precautions for the heat. In urban
areas with a lot of concrete and build up environments, it tends
to heat up much more quickly during the morning and takes much
longer to cool off at night, so those extreme temperatures will
persist for a longer period of time in urban environments.
Additionally, overnight lows are not expected to drop below 80
degrees for the next couple of nights (much like the last few
nights), so it will be even more difficult for the body to cool
off in these conditions. Be sure to check on the elderly and
vulnerable populations! Heat is cumulative/additive, so the
prolonged nature of this heat wave will also add to the potential
for heat stress/illness as well. MSW
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023
Same story, new day. Summer 2023 shows no real signs of letting up
on its relentless onslaught of hot temperatures and meager rain
chances with ridging forecast to remain place through most of the
extended period.
As has been the trend the last several days, the NBM output for high
temperatures is above nearly all other available guidance, including
its own 90th percentile solution, the ECM 90th percentile solution,
and the operational MEX guidance. With that being said, once again
lowered forecast max temperatures to closer to the NBM 75th
percentile which is still a degree or two warmer than most MOS
guidance.
Similarly, trended POPs a little lower than the NBM by blending in
some model consensus guidance as in the absence of organized
forcing, the NBM has been overly aggressive developing showers and
storms during this pattern. The adjustments generally result in 20-
30% POPs for most days Friday through Sunday. Going into Monday and
the first part of next work week, there could be some relief as a
deep upper trough digs southward toward the coast. However, ensemble
mean solutions remain fairly broad indicating member differences in
both timing and depth of the trough. That being said, will continue
to carry 30-40% pops for Mon/Tues and will need to continue
monitoring trends in how the trough evolves and how much it is able
to displace the high that has been basically parked over us for a
month.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023
VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals for the duration of
this forecast period. Winds will mostly be light as high pressure
stays around. Convection should not be an issue during the
afternoon and evening as the ridge builds back in.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023
High pressure will dominate this week and benign marine conditions
are expected for the most part. Some higher winds (near 15-20
kts) off the MS Sounds and Tidal Lakes will be expected overnight
tonight through Wednesday morning thanks to the diurnal jet.
Exercise Caution headlines are in effect tonight through 4AM
Thursday morning. Rain chances will be limited with precipitation
chances around 20-30 percent daily as we move toward the weekend.
With any storms that may form, the main threats to mariners will
be frequent lightning and gusty sub-severe winds (20-40kts). MSW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 97 75 97 75 / 60 10 20 0
BTR 101 81 100 81 / 50 10 20 0
ASD 100 81 97 80 / 40 10 20 0
MSY 100 82 98 82 / 40 10 30 0
GPT 97 81 95 81 / 50 20 20 10
PQL 98 80 96 80 / 50 20 30 10
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...None.
MS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for
MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
Excessive Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...MSWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Portions of the zone was under D2 to D4 drought due to minimal rainfall.
Portions of the zone was under D2 to D4 drought due to minimal rainfall.
Portions of the zone was under D2 to D4 drought due to minimal rainfall.
Portions of the zone was under D2 to D4 drought due to minimal rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1137293, 1137294, 1137295, 1137297.