The combined effects of persistent above-normal temperatures and minimal precipitation starting in early July 2023 resulted in mounting drought impacts across portions of southwest and southern Mississippi. S.
Every event with a place to put it; 8 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
The combined effects of persistent above-normal temperatures and minimal precipitation starting in early July 2023 resulted in mounting drought impacts across portions of southwest and southern Mississippi. Through the month of August, D2 (Severe Drought) conditions, as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor, were common across areas generally from south and west of a line from Claiborne County through Marion County. Average temperatures for the month of August in the area ranged from 4 to 8 degrees F above normal, and were generally the warmest on record with many daily temperature records also set. Observed precipitation values ranged from 50 percent of normal to lower than 25 percent of normal. Soil moisture values continued to worsen through the month, with subsoil moisture values dropping to between 20 to 30 percent below normal of much of the affected area. This placed a severe stress on pastures for livestock and began to reduce expected yield from row crops. Streamflows on creeks and rivers were reduced.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:27 PM CST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1227 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023
...New AVIATION...
.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023
Forecast will pretty much remain the same as clear skies will
prevail tonight areawide. Temperatures will cool down into the mid
70s during the overnight hours. Most of the higher dew points will
continue to be west of Interstate 55 where the ridging due to the
high pressure system over Texas is more dominant. Easterly winds
will continue to calm throughout the overnight hours as well.
/LCP/
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023
Tonight and Tomorrow: Excessive heat will be in the forecast for
another day as an excessive heat warning has been added for tomorrow
in addition to an heat advisory. Dewpoints will reach into the mid
to upper 70s as showers and storms earlier have helped to increase
moisture in the area. This will help to push heat indices range from
100-115 degrees. A weak cold front has pushed into the CWA from the
northeast providing enough relief from the heat to keep the Golden
Triangle out of any heat related warning or advisory through
tomorrow. Isolated diurnal storms will be possible this afternoon
along the western periphery of the CWA with possible hazards being
damaging wind gusts.
Tuesday night through early next week...
The primary concern in the long term continues to be dangerous heat
as an upper ridge centered over Texas remains our predominant
influence.Temperatures at 850 will be largely in the 20-25 C range
most of the week, resulting in surface temperature potential in the
low 100s, especially in areas west where there is more ridge
influence. Rain and storms should limit heat potential in the east,
especially later this week.
Dangerous heat: Our area will be on the eastern edge of a thermal
ridge resulting in 850 temps of 20-25 C throughout the week. Hottest
days appear to be Wednesday and Thursday as 850 temps peak.
Suppressed convection with upper ridging Wednesday increases
confidence in more widespread heat potential. The thermal ridge axis
should pivot closer to our area by week's end, however, given rain
and storm chances later in the week, heat potential will be more
uncertain. Overall, heat indices should reach 110-115 degrees for
much of the area this week and daily heat conditions will have to be
monitored.
Rain and storms: On Thursday, a surface low pressure system and
attendant warm front will advect moisture along an axis across
eastern Mississippi. Aloft, NW flow in this area will steer a
disturbance from the Ozarks. Increased flow along this axis should
result in more organized storms with an MCS progged to move south
southeastward Thursday east of I-55. Convective parameters such as
28-30 vertical totals, 30kts of deep layer shear, and surface theta
e around 355k should support a threat for damaging winds with this
MCS. SBCAPE is modest at this time (2000-2500j/kg), however will
have to assess CAM guidance when it becomes a available. In light of
this, heat potential should be limited for areas east of I-55
Thursday.
The upper ridge should break down by Saturday-Sunday and a zonal
regime sets up. With this, a series of disturbances amid increased
flow should keep unsettled conditions for early next week./SAS/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Very patchy fog cannot be ruled out this morning, but confidence
is too low to include in the TAF at any particular site. Isolated
TS are possible over parts of north LA and southwest MS this
afternoon, which could result in brief categorical reductions in
those areas. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 99 75 100 76 / 10 0 10 10
Meridian 97 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 0
Vicksburg 99 77 102 78 / 10 10 10 0
Hattiesburg 99 76 100 77 / 10 10 20 10
Natchez 99 77 102 78 / 20 10 20 0
Greenville 97 74 101 78 / 10 0 10 0
Greenwood 98 74 100 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for MSZ018-019-025-027-034>037-041>046-050>052-056>058-065-
066-073-074.
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for MSZ040-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ074-075.
&&
LCP/KP/SAS/DLHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 557 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>037-042>044-050-051-056-057-065- 066-073-074-011100- Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll- Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Scott- Newton-Smith-Jasper-Covington-Jones-Lamar-Forrest- 557 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday... DANGEROUS HEAT THREAT...Significant TIMING...Tuesday Dangerous heat expected with peak heat values in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant concern with outdoor activity. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday... Extremely dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than 110 degrees is expected across portions of the outlook area through Thursday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees is expected for the entire outlook area Friday through Sunday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Sunday. MSZ028-029-032-038-045-046-052-058-011100- Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Winston-Neshoba-Kemper-Lauderdale- Clarke- 557 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday... DANGEROUS HEAT THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Tuesday Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely with outdoor activity. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday... Extremely dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than 110 degrees is expected across portions of the outlook area through Thursday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees is expected for the entire outlook area Friday through Sunday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Sunday. MSZ030-031-033-039-011100- Clay-Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Noxubee- 557 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday... DANGEROUS HEAT THREAT...Limited TIMING...Tuesday Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be possible with outdoor activity. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday... Extremely dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than 110 degrees is expected across portions of the outlook area through Thursday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees is expected for the entire outlook area Friday through Sunday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Sunday. LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-041-047>049-053>055-059>064-072- 011100- Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA- Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren- Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS- Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Marion- 557 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday... DANGEROUS HEAT THREAT...Extreme TIMING...Tuesday Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues to be a major concern with outdoor activity. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday... Extremely dangerous heat with maximum heat index values greater than 110 degrees is expected across portions of the outlook area through Thursday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to 110 degrees is expected for the entire outlook area Friday through Sunday. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Sunday. 19 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *DANGEROUS HEAT* Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues to be a major concern. Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant concern. Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely. Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Drought conditions in Claiborne County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Jefferson County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Adams County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Adams County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Copiah County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Lincoln County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Lawrence County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D2 (Severe Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Drought conditions in Marion County intensified from D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D3 (Extreme Drought) as depicted on the U.S. Drought Monitor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1135154, 1135155, 1135158, 1135159, 1135162, 1135164, 1135165, 1135166.