A short wave trough moved through the region while its affiliated surface boundary moved from southern Saskatchewan and northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota, and continued to move towards the southeast. Thunderstorms along this line intensified greatly as it settled to the southeast into an environment of elevated instability and deep layer shear, with multiple areas of severe weather…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A short wave trough moved through the region while its affiliated surface boundary moved from southern Saskatchewan and northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota, and continued to move towards the southeast. Thunderstorms along this line intensified greatly as it settled to the southeast into an environment of elevated instability and deep layer shear, with multiple areas of severe weather developing. Well ahead of the line, another distinct area of severe weather developed where storms initiated along various outflow boundaries, particularly when two boundaries intersected. These storms were northerly moving. Eventually, the fontal boundary settled far enough south that all storms became focused along it. Many storms became very intense, especially a long-lived supercell thunderstorm that originally became severe near central Williams County before moving southeast and remaining severe all the way to northern Burleigh County. The most intense damage from this storm was in the Beulah Bay and Hazen Bay areas of northern Mercer County, where parts of roofs were torn off homes, large trees were uprooted, manufactured homes were severely damaged, and some campers and boats were flipped. Winds were estimated to be up to 95 mph. In addition, crops were severely damaged over a widespread area, with many fields flattened and determined to be a total loss. Along with the large hail and severe wind gusts with this episode, there was one tornado near Wilton in Burleigh County. No damage was reported with the tornado and so by National Weather Service policy the tornado is rated EF Unknown.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 1:31 PM MST, 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Bismarck ND 331 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 The main forecast issue in the short term period is convection this afternoon through tonight. Currently, convection continues over Southern Saskatchewan southwest into northeast Montana, associated with a shortwave tracking over the crest of the upper level ridge situated the forecast area. This wave may produce periods of convection this afternoon that develop in/or drop south into the forecast area. However, this portion of the forecast area is currently the most stable with an east northeast flow, partly to mostly cloudy skies and dewpoints in the 50s. This area may yet recover though before the day is over. The larger concern at this time will be later this afternoon through this evening, south of this area from roughly the Highway 200 corridor south through south central ND this afternoon into this evening. Currently this area is characterized by 2500-3000 J/KG from around Bismarck in the south central, eastward into east central and southeast ND and around 25 to 35 knots of bulk shear, but weaker south of the I-94 corridor. If This area could support multicell and supercell storms this afternoon into this evening. Supercell storms would have the potential to produce large hail up to ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph winds. The question is, will there be enough forcing for ascent to develop convection here. The shortwave over Canada is about to push east of the CWA and there looks like there could be some shortwave ridging behind it. The heating of the day is pretty strong and combined with the moisture convergence to the south of the cold front, this may be enough to spark convection. It's a conditional threat, but the hazards have the potential to be significant if convection does develop. Highest confidence here would be farther north and east, perhaps between Hwy 200 and I94 and east of the Missouri, but anywhere in the far southwest and south central could be at risk. Then this evening an approaching shortwave trough over Montana will impinge upon a surface trough along the MT/ND border and the aforementioned cold front which is currently situated just north of I-94 from the MT border eat to the Missouri River, then northeast to the Devils Lake Basin. The atmosphere is less favorable for severe weather in the far southwest as we mix out here late afternoon, along with some mid level warming. To the north of this, perhaps the west central into the northwest where the cold front meets up with the eastern Montana trough could be a focus point for moisture convergence ahead of the approaching shortwave. Once again it will be quite unstable here, and shear is stronger. Initially if we get supercell development along the Montana trough, the hail and wind hazards will be high with 2 inch hail and 70 mph winds. Then as the activity moves into ND Cams have been pretty consistent in more of a wind threat perhaps just past the initial row of western counties. Then the hail threat would diminish while the wind threat would remain. One could envision a wind threat from west central/northwest ND tracking south and east along the cold front towards the south central portion of the state. This area is generally where the HREF UH tracks from the 12 UTC run are most robust. Uncertainty increases late tonight as there is more of mix in the CAMS with some holding together through the James River Valley and others dissipating over the south central. Nonetheless, some threat will likely remain over the southeast portion of the CWA into the early overnight hours past midnight. Wednesday will bring a bit of a break as the front moves out of the area. Late in the day there may be a potential for storms as shortwave energy tracks towards the forecast area through the mean upper ridge position. Large discrepancies in timing/placement of the deterministic models continue through the night Wednesday night, with convection favored slight for areas south and west. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 The main forecast issue in the long term period will be shower and thunderstorm chances. Cooler temperatures also encompass the forecast area. By Thursday the aforementioned cold front has pushed through the forecast area, with upper level ridging situated over the state. This will aid in suppressing convection through much of the day. However, within the mean upper level ridging pattern shortwave energy coming off the Pacific, meanders through the ridge and into the Northern Rockies and High Plains late in the day. This may produce some afternoon/evening convection on Thursday. After highs in the 80s and 90s through the first half of the work week, we begin to cool down a little. Highs Thursday will be mainly in the 80s. Friday through Sunday, an upper level low struggles to form over the Northern Rockies and lifts into the Northern Plains. This looks to bring a period of showery weather to the forecast area sometime during the weekend. This looks to be a High over low blocking pattern and thus a low predictable event and slow to develop. Yesterday it looked like Friday would be a wet period but now the timing looks to be delayed due to the slow development of the pattern. Temperatures will trend cooler with increasing precipitation chances as we head into the weekend, but at this time the predictability of where/when precipitation will occur is quite low. It does look like more showery with isolated thunderstorm chances and a low probability of severe storms through the extended period. At this time, the Machine learning and CIPS Severe analogs place any severe threat south of the forecast area. The low predictability in temperatures and pops can be seen in the NBM with quite high ensemble spread late in the work week and heading into the weekend. NBM pops are slow to catch up with the medium range deterministic models in delaying the precip. However, NBM Precipitation amounts are showing a high probability of low qpf amounts, and low probabilities of higher qpf amounts, especially south and west. KDIK and KBIS are showing a 15-20 percent chance of over 2 inches of qpf Friday. Even though models are having a hard time resolving the specifics of when and where precipitation arrives late week and through the weekend, there is a possibility some could see decent rainfall amounts, and more than just hit and miss thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 VFR conditions to begin the 18Z TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity. Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mostly from KMOT to KJMS, and then late afternoon through the evening around KDIK and KISN initially and tracking south and east across the forecast area. A lot of uncertainty in this forecast so still utilizing only VCTS at all TAF sites for now and will adjust through the afternoon as convection develops. Any storms will be capable of producing MVFR cigs/vsbys as well as gusty and erratic winds. The strongest storms will be capable of producing winds in excess of 50 knots and large hail. Surface flow will be variable but mainly easterly 5 to 15 knots outside of convection. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...TWH
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Bismarck ND 331 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 NDZ001-002-009>011-017>022-031>035-040>044-022045- Divide-Burke-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver- McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh- Slope-Hettinger-Grant-Bowman-Adams- 331 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 /231 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across western and portions of central North Dakota, mainly along and west of the Highway 83 corridor. The main hazards will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed. NDZ023-025-036-037-045>048-050-051-022045- Wells-Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh- Dickey- 331 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 /231 PM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central North Dakota and southeast North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across south central North Dakota into the James River Valley this afternoon into this evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed. NDZ003>005-012-013-022045- Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-McHenry-Pierce- 331 PM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central North Dakota. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of north central North Dakota this afternoon int this evening. The main hazards will be large hail up to quarter size and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters may be needed on a limited basis.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0640 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 6 N Kramer 48.78N 100.71W
07/31/2023 E60 MPH Bottineau ND Trained Spotter
delayed report from yesterday. time
estimated from radar. also had pea sized
hail for about 5 minutes. spotter reported
that a nearby corn field was stripped down
to stalks. also had 2.5 inches of rain.
&&
MEJPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1005 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1002 AM Rain 6 N Kramer 48.78N 100.71W
08/01/2023 M2.50 inch Bottineau ND Trained Spotter
24 hour total from storms on monday evening
7/31.
&&
MEJPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1025 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1024 AM Rain 4 N Towner 48.40N 100.40W
08/01/2023 E1.05 inch McHenry ND Trained Spotter
rain from monday evening 7/31. spotter
mentioned water was pooling in yard.
&&
MEJPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1145 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0932 PM Hail 5 N Bowman Haley Dam 46.05N 103.25W
07/31/2023 E0.88 inch Bowman ND Public
delayed report from monday evening. time
estimated from radar. report of dime to
nickel sized hail.
&&
MEJThe Bismarck radar (KBIS), 100 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:53 UTC.
25 hail, 23 thunderstorm wind, 2 funnel cloud, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Large amount of one-inch diameter hail caused significant dents on a garage door and shattered a window on a home.
A large tree was blown down and uprooted.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated by the public.
The end tower of an irrigation pivot was blown over and extensive crop damage occurred.
Large cottonwood tree branches were blown down.
Significant damage occurred in White Shield and the surrounding area. Homes had vinyl siding damaged by wind driven hail. Vehicle windshields along with windows in homes were broken. In White Shield, four campers were blown over.
In the Beulah Bay area, two homes had parts of their roofs torn off, large trees were uprooted, manufactured homes were damaged, and multiple campers and boats on trailers were flipped. At Hazen Bay, campers were flipped and trees uprooted. Significant crop damage was also observed throughout this area and surrounding areas, with many fields appearing completely flattened suffering total crop loss.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated by a trained spotter.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated by the public.
Multiple hopper-style grain bins were blown over, with another bin damage. A wooden structure was also damaged.
Multiple sunflower fields between Washburn and Wilton were damaged by the strong winds.
The tornado touched down in an open field southwest of Wilton and impacted no structures. There was no damage to evaluate and so by National Weather Service policy the tornado is rated EF Unknown.
A large sunflower field was almost completely flattened by thunderstorm winds.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated by a trained spotter.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for North Dakota, 2023Warnings in North Dakota, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1132538, 1132541, 1132542, 1132543, 1132539, 1132544, 1132548, 1132540, 1132551, 1132554, 1132555, 1132557, 1132561, 1132562, 1132563, 1132545, 1132549, 1132572, 1132573, 1132576, 1132578, 1132559, 1132610, 1132644, 1132645, 1132570, 1132571, 1132648, 1132688, 1132689, 1132707, 1132708, 1132574, 1132575, 1132885, 1132886, 1132887, 1132890, 1132646, 1132891, and more.