Drought in Missouri, August 1 to 31, 2023

Name: Drought in Missouri, August 1 to 31, 2023
Start: 2023-08-01T00:00
End: 2023-08-31T23:59
Location: Missouri

August 1 to 31, 2023 · NWS SGF · 17 events in 17 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 17 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: $1.9 million
Events: 17

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.

Some locations saw improvement from Extreme (D3) Drought by the end of August Extreme drought remained for portions of west central Missouri. Extreme (D3) and Severe (D2) Drought conditions did contract across portions the Missouri Ozarks through the end of August but remained generally along and north of I-44. Rainfall amounts from 1 to 5 inches with localized 6 to 10 inch amounts occurred during the month allowing for improvement of drought conditions over southern Missouri during the month. Across central Missouri Extreme (D3) and Severe (D2) drought contracted but remained across parts of west central Missouri. Severe (D2) drought also contracted in southwestern Missouri. Moderate (D1) Drought and Abnormally Dry (D0) condition areas made up much of the remainder of the area though some locations saw the removal of all drought conditions. The primary impacts of the drought occurred in the agricultural communities. Hay growth was impacted along with reports of crop and vegetation impacts due to limited soil and surface moisture, dry stock ponds and low flows on some streams and rivers. Final reports of damages will be placed in the last month the drought occurred in the counties impacted in 2023.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:13 PM CST, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 11:13 PM CST, 47 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1213 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Flood Watch in effect overnight into Tuesday morning northeast
of Springfield. Few strong - severe storms possible.

2. Excessive Heat Warning Tuesday for the western counties. Heat
Advisory continues east to along the US 65 corridor.

3. Heat gradually shifts east during the middle to later part of
the week.

4. Pattern change starts this weekend which will start to bring in
some slightly cooler temperatures and more widespread rain
chances.

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 856 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

00z regional soundings show a moist and unstable airmass across
the area. SGF measured a 1.6in precipitable water value however
2.0inches was measured upstream in Topeka. An instability axis
and stationary front was present from eastern Kansas into
southwest Missouri with a 2000-3000j/kg reservoir of elevated CAPE
along and south of the stationary front. Steep mid level lapse
rates and 30kts of 0-6km shear was also evident.

Models have been in good agreement that after 10pm the low level
jet will develop across Kansas and nose into western Missouri.
This should act to force showers and thunderstorms somewhere east
of the KC metro to the north of the stationary front. These
storms will then start developing and training southeast into
central Missouri (Osage Beach - Rolla areas) and may continue
through the night and into Tuesday morning. The 850mb front is
situated across that region and given the instability and
moisture there is the potential for flash flooding. HREF data
continues to show high probs for an area of 2-4 inches of rainfall
with the prob matched mean showing pockets of 6 inches in
localized areas. Conceptually, this is a pattern that has produced
significant flash flooding in the past therefore we will be
monitoring this closely overnight. The main limiting factor to the
flooding threat is the drought/antecedent conditions as flash
flood guidance is high in that area. Regardless, rainfall rates of
1-3 inches per hour will likely cause flash flooding and we have
issued a Flood Watch for areas northeast of Springfield overnight
into Tuesday morning. We kept the watch a little larger to
account for any shifting in the precip axis. Areas further west
towards Springfield and especially Joplin have much lower chances
for rainfall.

Lastly, given the instability and weak shear, a few storms could
produce large hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds to
60mph. Mainly on the western flank of this activity, closer to the
large CAPE/instability reservoir. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning is likely as well.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Temperatures were starting to warm back up in the western CWA and
were in the upper 80s there. Further east, with more cloud cover
and still some lingering showers in the northeast CWA,
temperatures were in the mid 70s to low 80s. While we might not
reach widespread criteria this afternoon, we have decided to keep
the heat products going with many areas still without power from
last nights severe storms. In fact, we expanded the advisory
eastward to around the U.S. 65 corridor for both today and
Tuesday.

CAMS are in agreement on developing thunderstorms over the eastern
CWA late this evening into Tuesday morning. There is a marginal
risk for some strong to severe storms with damaging wind and large
hail the main risks. In addition, heavy rain will be possible and
any training storms could lead to some localized flooding.

Warmest temperatures on Tuesday will again be in the west, in
areas unaffected by the convection tonight into Tuesday morning.
Highs there could reach the upper 90s to around 102, but diminish
considerably in the east where low 80s are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

The convection should end over the east during the day Tuesday,
however CAMS are suggesting another thunderstorm complex late
Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, which could bring additional
heavy rain and thunderstorms to the eastern Ozarks. The majority
of this activity should exit the area by around sunrise on
Wednesday.

Upper level ridge axis will be over the area on Wednesday, with
low level south to southwesterly flow advecting in temperatures at
850mb to around 22-30 deg C. The east will still have some cloud
cover/precipitation potential to deal with which will keep
temperatures in the mid 80s to around 90, however the heat out
west will expand more eastward with a larger area getting into the
upper 90s to around 104 for highs. Heat index values will range
from 96 to 115.

The upper ridge will remain over the area through Thursday, but
will start to flatten out and then retrograde to the west as a
series of shortwaves begin to break it down. This should start to
bring temperatures back down into the 90s by the weekend and the
80s by early next week. Rain chances will also be on the increase.
The pattern change will linger into the 8 to 14 day outlook period
which is showing signs of cooler than normal and wetter than
normal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites through
the period. Showers have developed in north central Missouri and
are expected to continue developing and moving southeast through
the area, but they should stay east of the TAF sites. There is an
approximate 30% chance of impacts at SGF around 12Z, which could
result in temporary MVFR conditions. South-southwesterly winds
may become gusty up to 20 kts at SGF near the end of the period,
but will otherwise stay below 10 kts around the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

     Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-068>071-
     080>083-092-098.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055-067-068-078-079-089-090-094-095-102>104.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Nelson

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 7:45 PM CST, 4 hours 15 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
845 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
845 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop near or just after
midnight across central Missouri and move over the same areas
repeatedly. A few severe storms with hail to the size of quarters
and damaging winds to 60 mph will be possible. Frequent cloud to
ground lightning is likely.

Of greater concern is the potential for flash flooding as very
heavy rainfall rates occur. Areas northeast of Springfield have
the highest chances for flash flooding overnight into Tuesday
morning. This is where an area of 2-4 inches of rainfall looks to
develop with localized amounts to 6 inches. If these heavier
amounts occur then some significant flash flooding would be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Saturday.

Hot conditions are expected to continue through the weekend into
next week with heat index values similar each day as they top out
in the upper 90s to 110 degree range. The hottest conditions will
occur across southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri.

Another thunderstorm complex will be possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning with strong to marginally severe storms again
possible and the risk for localized flooding. The main risk will
again be east of the highway 65 corridor.

The heat will continue to build back up this week with western
Missouri and southeast Kansas remaining the hottest with heat
index values from 105 to 110 and will gradually spread eastward
through the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 31, 6:38 PM CST, 5 hours 22 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
738 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1028 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 N Golden City         37.43N 94.09W
07/30/2023                   Barton             MO   Public

            Corrects time of previous tstm wnd dmg
            report from 3 N Golden City. Several trees
            uprooted or snapped and shingles blow off a
            roof. Delayed Report.

&&

TEO

Local storm report, Jul 31, 9:12 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1012 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lowry City              38.14N 93.72W
07/30/2023                   St. Clair          MO   Public

            Delayed report of tree down on mobile home.

&&

MB

Local storm report, Jul 31, 9:20 PM CST, 2 hours 40 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1020 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Vista               37.99N 93.72W
07/30/2023                   St. Clair          MO   Utility Company

            tree damage to lines occurred across
            southern St Clair county per utility
            company.

&&

MB

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

17 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Barton

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Barton forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.502, -94.347 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Far northern Barton County remained in an Extreme (D3) Drought with the Severe (D2) Drought expanded to cover the area south of the D3 region with Moderate (D1) Drought across the southern third of the county in August. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Vernon

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Vernon forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.851, -94.342 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

There was little to no change to the Extreme (D3) Drought conditions during August. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, St. Clair

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: St. Clair forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.037, -93.776 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Little to no changes to ongoing drought conditions occurred during August. The western half of St Clair County remained in Extreme (D3) drought, the eastern half was in Severe (D2) Drought status. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Cedar

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Cedar forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.724, -93.857 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Little to no changes to ongoing drought conditions occurred during August. The western 2/3rds of Cedar County remained in Extreme (D3) drought, the eastern 1/3rd was reduced in Severe (D2) Drought status. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Dade

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dade forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.432, -93.850 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A few periods of rainfall allowed for the removal of Extreme (D3) Drought. Severe (D2) Drought remained across the northern half of the county with the remainder of the county in Moderate (D1) Drought or Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showed modest impacts due to limited rainfall. Crop and vegetation growth showed signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Polk

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Polk forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.617, -93.400 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

No change to the Severe (D2) Drought conditions were noted in August. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showing limited drought condition improvement. Crop and vegetation growth was showing signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Hickory

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Hickory forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.941, -93.321 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Periods of rainfall allowed for some improvements in the county through the month. Severe (D2) Drought condition shrank westward through the month though about half the county remained in Severe (D2) Drought with the remainder of the county in Moderate (D1) Drought. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showed modest impacts due to limited rainfall. Crop and vegetation growth showed signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Benton

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Benton forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.295, -93.288 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Several periods of rainfall allowed for improvements in the county through the month. Severe (D2) Drought contracted to the north and southwestern corners of the county with the remainder of the county in Moderate (D1) Drought. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showed modest impacts due to limited rainfall. Crop and vegetation growth showed signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Morgan

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Morgan forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.424, -92.886 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Several rounds of rainfall allowed for some significant improvements in the county through the month. Extreme (D3) Drought was removed as a result of rainfall with only a small area of Severe (D2) Drought lingering in the far northern portion of the county. The remainder of the county remained in Moderate (D1) Drought at the end of August. |Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture. Farm and stock ponds saw continuing impacts with ground water levels and reservoirs showed modest impacts due to limited rainfall. Crop and vegetation growth showed signs of stress due to limited moisture. Monetary crop losses for 2023 beginning January first will be included in future reports when the drought ends and loses are assessed.

Drought, Miller

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Miller forecast zone
Crop damage: $350,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.215, -92.428 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Rainfall through the month allowed for improvement across the county though Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued across the region through the end of August. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture with farm and stock ponds low but improved. Dry conditions caused grasses to dry and significantly impact hay production causing losses in hay cutting. Many farmers saw impacts to row crops such as soy beans, corn and other specialty crops. Crop loss estimates notated in this month encompass losses from continued drought since May 2023.

Drought, Maries

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Maries forecast zone
Crop damage: $200,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.162, -91.925 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Rainfall through the month allowed for improvement across the county though Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued across the region through the end of July. The US Drought Monitor indicated that the county remained in Moderate (D1) Drought with the eastern third having improved to Abnormally (D0) dry. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture with farm and stock ponds low but improved. Dry conditions caused grasses to dry and significantly impact hay production causing losses in hay cutting. Many farmers saw impacts to row crops such as soy beans, corn and other specialty crops. Crop loss estimates notated in this month encompass losses from continued drought since May 2023.

Drought, Dallas

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Dallas forecast zone
Crop damage: $120,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.680, -93.024 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Camden

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Camden forecast zone
Crop damage: $50,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 38.027, -92.766 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Laclede

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Laclede forecast zone
Crop damage: $330,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.658, -92.590 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Rainfall through the month allowed for improvement across the county though Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued across the region through the end of July. The US Drought Monitor indicated that the county remained in Moderate (D1) Drought with the far southern parts of the county having improved to Abnormally (D0) dry. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture with farm and stock ponds low but improved. Dry conditions caused grasses to dry and significantly impact hay production causing losses in hay cutting. Many farmers saw impacts to row crops such as soy beans, corn and other specialty crops. Crop loss estimates notated in this month encompass losses from continued drought since June 2023.

Drought, Jasper

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jasper forecast zone
Crop damage: $600,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.204, -94.341 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Rainfall through the month allowed for improvement across the county though Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued across the region through the end of August. The US Drought Monitor indicated that the county remained in Moderate (D1) Drought with the southwestern corner having improved to Abnormally (D0) dry. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture with farm and stock ponds low but improved. Dry conditions caused grasses to dry and significantly impact hay production causing losses in hay cutting. Many farmers saw impacts to row crops such as soy beans, corn and other specialty crops. Crop loss estimates notated in this month encompass losses from continued drought since June 2023.

Drought, Newton

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Newton forecast zone
Crop damage: $225,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 36.906, -94.339 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Rainfall through the month allowed for improvement across the county though Moderate (D1) Drought conditions continued across the portions of the region through the end of August. The US Drought Monitor indicated that north central portions of the county remained in Moderate (D1) Drought with the remainder of the county having improved to Abnormally (D0) dry. Impacts across the region were primarily felt in larger scale agriculture with farm and stock ponds low but improved. Dry conditions caused grasses to dry and significantly impact hay production causing losses in hay cutting. Many farmers saw impacts to row crops such as soy beans, corn and other specialty crops. Crop loss estimates notated in this month encompass losses from continued drought since June 2023.

Drought, Pulaski

When: August 1, 12:00 AM CST to August 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Pulaski forecast zone
Crop damage: $30,000
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 37.825, -92.208 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Missouri in 2023 Every state in 2023 This day in weather history Warnings in Missouri, August 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1135848, 1135849, 1135850, 1135851, 1135852, 1135861, 1135863, 1135864, 1135868, 1135872, 1135873, 1135876, 1135877, 1135879, 1135881, 1135882, 1135883.