A quick moving cold front crossed the region starting the afternoon of the 5th and extending into the morning of the 6th. While most areas received less than 6 inches of snow, terrain enhancement to the southeast of Lak Superior led to higher totals approaching 8 inches near Mahtowa.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DLH wrote it up.
A quick moving cold front crossed the region starting the afternoon of the 5th and extending into the morning of the 6th. While most areas received less than 6 inches of snow, terrain enhancement to the southeast of Lak Superior led to higher totals approaching 8 inches near Mahtowa.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Duluth, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 5, 11:32 PM CST, 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1132 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023
.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023
Summary...Active weather pattern continues this week. Snow will
move into the Northland tonight and continue Monday in response to
a passing shortwave trough. Transient ridging keeps Tuesday dry.
Snow chances return on Wednesday and continue through next
weekend.
Considerable mid-level dry air was found over the region with the
12Z radiosondes from ABR and MPX. At 3 PM the regional radar
mosaic revealed echoes from southern North Dakota and northern
South Dakota southwest toward northern Illinois. A closer
examination of single-site data reveals a noteworthy virga
"doughnut" surrounding KMPX. That matches well with the absence
of surface precipitation reports over western and central
Minnesota. The heaviest precipitation stretched from south of
Aberdeen, SD to just west of La Crosse, WI. This southern area of
forcing appeared to displace the mass and momentum fields to the
north, limiting precipitation and sub-cloud layer saturation. The
end result is a slower arrival of precipitation than earlier
forecast, and lower snow totals for some areas.
A shortwave trough was located over southeast Montana to western
Nebraska this afternoon with several lobes of 500 mb vorticity
embedded within the flow. A weak surface low was centered over
southeast Colorado and a warm front extended from southern
Nebraska east into southern Indiana. A quasi-stationary front was
located farther north from northeast Wyoming to northwest Ontario.
The wave and surface low will advance generally east-
northeastward tonight and Monday. The surface low is forecast to
fill as it moves across the central Plains and Midwest. Over the
Northland, this will mean generally lower snowfall amounts and an
eastward shift of the highest values.
Portions of central Minnesota into the Arrowhead may underperform
even the current forecast snow amounts due to dry air entrainment
from the north. That said, there is still as signal for around 2
to 5 inches of snow from central Minnesota east into northwest
Wisconsin and portions of the North Shore. Lake-enhancement and
orographic forcing for ascent will likely boost snow totals along
the North Shore to the Twin Ports east to northern Bayfield
County. Some of those locations may wind up with 4 to 8 inches
locally. Overall the best forcing for ascent and lift through the
dendritic growth zone appears to be focused farther south than
last week's system. We kept headlines as-is for this afternoon
with Winter Weather Advisories in effect.
A transient ridge of high pressure will drift eastward across the
Northland Tuesday and will provide a break in precipitation.
Additional chances of accumulating snow return Wednesday through
next weekend.
Temperatures generally trend below normal for the second half of
the week. Deterministic models, particularly the GFS, paint a
considerable amount of snow over our area for the second half of
the week. On the other hand, the ensemble guidance raises
significant concerns with that outlook. ECMWF Ensemble, GEFS, and
GEPS members are scattershot with locations and intensity of storm
systems Wednesday through early next week. The resultant snow
amounts range from none to "more than enough" (although that value
in early March is much smaller than earlier in the season). The
best forecast seems to include chances of snow during the period
while not getting too specific on timing and amounts. As has been
the story for the past few weeks, keep up with the latest forecast
as it will change.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023
Snow across central Minnesota will slowly push north to affect
KHYR, KBRD and KDLH with poor flying conditions. KHYR has already
dropped to IFR, and is expected to drop to LIFR through the next
several hours before improving to IFR until approximately 21z when
the snow tapers off and ceilings improve to MVFR and remain there
through the rest of the TAF period. KBRD and KDLH should both
lowers to between MVFR or IFR by 10z, then improve back to VFR by
00z. Both KHIB and KINL should remain predominantly VFR, though
there may be some brief MVFR ceilings in the 15z to 23z time
range.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023
Northeast winds will gradually increase overnight tonight and into
Monday morning. The strongest winds can be expected around mid day
Monday, before decreasing again Monday evening. The probability of
getting consistent gales has decreased on Monday over the last 12
hours, but not enough to take down the Gale Warning into the
southwest arm of the lake just yet. Winds and waves warrant at
least a Small Craft Advisory through Monday night. These strong
northeast winds to decrease for Monday night and Tuesday. Winds
increase out of the east-northeast again Tuesday night, continuing
Wednesday before diminishing again Wednesday night. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed once again in the late Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 27 33 18 33 / 70 80 20 0
INL 18 32 7 27 / 0 10 10 0
BRD 27 35 14 33 / 70 50 10 0
HYR 29 35 22 38 / 90 80 20 0
ASX 27 34 24 35 / 80 80 40 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for WIZ001>004.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for WIZ006>009.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for MNZ020-037.
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for MNZ033>036-038.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST Monday for LSZ140>143-148.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ144>147-150.
Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LSZ144>147-150.
&&
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LEHazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 327 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023 MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-062130- Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake- North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore- Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass- Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis- Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price- 327 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Light to moderate snow begins this evening and will bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches of snow from central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin and for portions of the Arrowhead through early Monday morning. Portions of Ashland, Sawyer, Iron and Price counties could end up with 2 to 4 inches by sunrise. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect beginning this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Light snow will continue Monday and will end from west to east Monday afternoon and evening. Additional snow accumulations up to 1 to 3 inches are possible on Monday, with locally higher amounts of 4 to 5 inches in northern Bayfield County. Total snow accumulation will range from a dusting in north-central Minnesota to 1 to 4 inches in central Minnesota to 2 to 6 inches in northwest Wisconsin and the North Shore. Locally higher amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected from Silver Bay to Duluth to Bayfield. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Monday early evening. Light snow will return to the Northland later this week. Several rounds of accumulating snow are forecast starting Wednesday and continuing through next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Snow spotters are requested to report their snowfall measurements to the National Weather Service. For the month of March we are actively recruiting for CoCoRaHS, the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow network. If you would like to volunteer to become a regular reporter of rain hail and snow, please visit https://www.cocorahs.org for more information. LSZ121-140>148-150-062130- Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN- Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN- Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN- Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN- Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI- Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI- Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland- 327 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight Strong northeast winds are expected tonight, with sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots and gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Conditions will remain hazardous to smaller vessels and a period of gales to 35 knots are forecast Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect from 6 AM until 6 PM from the Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to the Apostle Islands along the South Shore. Small Craft Advisories are in effect elsewhere for wind gusts from 25 to 30 knots. After the gales subside, conditions will remain hazardous for smaller vessels into Tuesday morning, particularly over the waters of the South Shore. Additional periods of hazardous winds and waves are forecast Wednesday through next weekend. JDS/Huyck More information may be obtained at the following web address: http://www.weather.gov/duluth
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall totals of 2 to 7 inches were received across the area with a high report of 7.9 inches near Mahtowa.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1085317.